Originally Posted by
Prediction? Pain.
The passing game against UGA and Auburn was atrocious any which way you slice it. Missed reads, skipped reads (according to Mullen, at least), drops, etc.
But let's keep things in context.
We've played four FBS teams this year. Here are their national defensive ranks in, (1) opponents' QB rating, and (2) yards per opponents' passing attempt (both of which are against other FBS teams, so no stats from games vs. FCS teams included):
Opponents' QB Rating
La. Tech - 43rd
LSU - 32nd
UGA - 1st
AU - 11th
Opponents' Yards Per Attempt
La. Tech - 32nd
LSU - 14th
UGA - 1st
AU - 7th
The S&P+ and FEI passing defense ranks aren't out yet (they come out after Week 7), but LSU, UGA, and AU are all in the top 15 nationally in the overall S&P+ defense rankings.
Now, we're only six weeks into the season, so these stats are far from final. And of course LSU hasn't faced a murderer's row of FBS passing offenses (us, Troy, Syracuse, and FL). But still, with the data that we've got, we haven't played a bad or even bottom half FBS pass defense so far.
Against two pass defenses that have so far been average to good (La. Tech and LSU), our pass offense was solid. QB ratings of ~160 in each, 65% completion percentage in each, 5 TDs, 1 INT. It wasn't prolific, mind you -- 312 yards combined in those two games. But I don't think it's designed to be. At its best with our current lineup, it's efficient and effective. And that's exactly what it was against what are currently top 40 and a top 25 pass defenses.
Against the No. 1 pass defense in college football on the road? Yeah, not so much. Against a top 10 pass defense, again on the road? Nope.
Now, that doesn't mean we shouldn't have been able to produce more against UGA and AU. I'd like to think that our passing offense should be far enough along with Fitz in charge since the early part of last season to at least keep things decent against pass defenses that good.
But it may be a little early to say that Fitz and crew have been terrible across the board.
Also, about Relf in 2010, it's hard to compare 5 games this year to a whole season's worth of stats 7 years ago. Still, it may be worth noting that by season's end in 2010, we may not have faced a pass defense as good as AU's or UGA's. Using the same stats that I referenced above, here were the best pass defenses we faced in 2010:
Opponents' QB Rating
Bama - 9th
LSU - 28th
Arkansas - 39th
Kentucky - 40th
Opponents' Yards Per Attempt
Bama - 20th
LSU - 38th
Arkansas - 57th
Kentucky - 61st
Most of those teams were better per S&P+ pass defense rankings that year (8th, 12th, 21st, 56th, respectively; also, AU was 37th in that metric despite it's not-so-hot traditional pass defense stats), but you get the picture. And let's not forget how things went for Relf when he passed against SEC teams. 6 TDs, 10 INTs, the 10th ranked QB rating in the SEC, and the 11th ranked completion % in the SEC.
Shifting gears a bit, what makes me even more upset than our passing offense against elite passing defenses is our passing defense against UGA and AU. AU's ranks in the traditional stat categories we're talking about are admittedly in the top 15, but UGA's are in the mid-30s. Our national, FBS-game-only ranks in opposing QB rating and yards per attempt? 101st and 111th. Out of 130.
Yikes.
It's like the pass offense numbers in that they're skewed by two bad games against two great teams, but even more so on this side of the ball. UGA's and AU's QB ratings and yards per attempt against us? QB ratings of 270 and 253, and YPA of 16.8 and 15.7. WTF? I didn't even know QB ratings went that high. And 16 and 17 yards per pass attempt? The best QB rating and highest YPA in the country right now both belong to OU, and theirs are 217 and 12.5. So in two consecutive games, neither of which were against a passing offense that's firmly in the top 10 nationally, we let opponents have nationally outstanding days passing the football.
Ok. That's all I've got. I'll carry on with my rocking Friday night of football-stat reading and solo scotch drinking. Fatherhood!