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Thread: Runs Created Update - Sunday Special

  1. #1
    LiL MissBitch alot sleepy dawg's Avatar
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    Runs Created Update - Sunday Special

    Link to the last update: http://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread...e-Sabermetrics
    There is an explanation to a lot of this below the chart for those who may not understand what they're looking at, but are interested. Skip all that if you already know what these stats are.

    Observations:
    Thank God Robson is back.
    Mangum is still the sh*t. He's fallen back some in the past month actually, he's still playing at a very high level.
    Kruger has also slipped some, but has still been solid.
    Humphreys has stayed about the same, and he and the previously mentioned 3 have been the 4 best hitters on the team over the course of the season given their playing time.
    We really need to find a way to get Marrero less playing time.
    Luke Alexander is actually one of the few players who've increased their RC average over the past month. His AVG is just so low, it's hard to justify him playing too much at this point.


    Player Name RC (RC/PA)*4 BABIP OPS OBP Slug AVG R RBI HR TB H HBP+BB SB CS 3B 2B AB K Sac GDP
    Jake Mangum 30.75 0.89 0.44 1.007 0.471 0.536 0.416 23 22 1 67 52 13 1 1 3 6 125 8 1 1
    Jacob Robson 28.62 0.79 0.432 0.927 0.461 0.466 0.356 32 19 1 55 42 23 12 2 3 4 118 22 4 1
    Jack Kruger 31.74 0.77 0.377 0.975 0.442 0.533 0.333 31 29 5 72 45 27 4 1 0 12 135 25 2 2
    Reid Humphreys 32.18 0.76 0.406 0.977 0.42 0.557 0.336 29 39 4 78 47 24 0 1 2 15 140 35 5 1
    Gavin Collins 29.92 0.66 0.287 0.899 0.402 0.497 0.279 29 26 8 73 41 31 0 0 0 8 147 25 3 3
    Brent Rooker 26.18 0.65 0.373 0.873 0.373 0.5 0.313 23 35 4 72 45 15 2 1 2 11 144 32 2 2
    Nathaniel Lowe 31.52 0.62 0.362 0.857 0.411 0.446 0.326 28 34 3 78 57 26 2 1 0 12 175 24 1 7
    Cody Brown 14.55 0.59 0.293 0.802 0.392 0.41 0.244 18 13 2 32 19 19 3 0 2 3 78 18 2 1
    Ryan Gridley 21.57 0.46 0.295 0.685 0.335 0.35 0.282 22 26 2 57 46 15 1 1 0 5 163 16 8 1
    Luke Alexander 8.85 0.44 0.293 0.686 0.347 0.339 0.226 11 9 2 21 14 12 2 0 0 1 62 20 7 1
    Hunter Stovall 8.88 0.4 0.265 0.605 0.31 0.295 0.231 15 13 0 23 18 9 6 0 0 5 78 10 2 0
    Elih Marrero 13.87 0.39 0.288 0.628 0.31 0.318 0.258 15 11 0 42 34 10 2 0 1 6 132 14 1 2
    John Holland 3.76 0.23 0.261 0.52 0.266 0.254 0.203 12 6 0 15 12 5 0 1 0 3 59 13 2 0


    Color highlighting is just to help with visual to highlight the best and worst in each category since sorting isn't available.
    RC (Runs Created) - This is the single best indicator (in my and many others opinion) in determining how valuable a player has been based on what they've done this season. Specifically, this stat estimates the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team. This is a very complex formula, and is probably the #1 stat used in sabermetrics in some form or another. I use the advanced formula for RC in this breakdown.
    (RC/PA)*4 - This is Runs Created divided by Plate Appearances times 4. This turns RC into an average so players can be compared equally regardless of how much they've played. It's divided by 4 to give an estimated view of how many runs they create per game. I came up with this, just for comparisons sake.
    OPS - On Base % plus Slugging %
    BABIP - Batting average on balls in play. This is another sabermetric stat. This stat measures how many of a batter's balls in play go for hits, excluding home runs. It is a good tool for measuring the sustainability of a hitter's performance, as a very high or very low babip is hard to maintain.
    TB - Total bases
    HBP+BB - Hit by pitch + walks
    CS - Caught Stealing
    Sac - Sacrifice Hits
    GDP - Ground into Double Play

  2. #2
    Super Moderator CadaverDawg's Avatar
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    Good stuff as always, sleepy. Thanks for putting this together.

    I think we're going to see a whole lot more of Kruger behind the plate since Elih has hit a wall offensively. I wouldn't be surprised to see Elih start 1 game a weekend back there, but even then if he doesn't start hitting, we'll see Kruger pinch hit for him in big spots. Having Kruger at catcher enables us to get he And Rooker's bats in the lineup....which is big right now.

    LF Hump
    CF Robson
    RF Mangum
    3B Collins
    SS Gridley
    2B Holland
    1B Lowe
    C Kruger
    DH Rooker

    That's probably going to be our best lineup going forward, especially with injuries to Stovall & LA. I think that's a stout lineup with only one guy that is considered an "easier out" in Holland. But even he has had some clutch hits. We've come a long way offensively in a year.

    The key IMO will be Robson's ability to get back to form, and whether we're able to bat him 1 or 2, or if we need to bump him down to the 9 hole until he knocks the rust off. He would see much better pitches to hit ahead of Jake in the 9 hole, so if he isn't 1 or 2, 9 is the only logical spot to me. Batting him 6th & 7th seemed silly IMO.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    LA would be starting right now if not for his injury. His average is low but he is a superior defender when compared to Holland.

  4. #4
    LiL MissBitch alot sleepy dawg's Avatar
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    Can someone with more knowledge than me help me out with something? Can you list all the positions each player can realistically play? I'll list them out for copy/paste. Also, how long are Stovall and Alexander out for?

    Jake Mangum -
    Jacob Robson -
    Jack Kruger -
    Reid Humphreys -
    Gavin Collins -
    Brent Rooker -
    Nathaniel Lowe -
    Cody Brown -
    Ryan Gridley -
    Luke Alexander -
    Hunter Stovall -
    Elih Marrero -
    John Holland -

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    Jake Mangum- lf, cf, rf
    Jacob Robson - lf, cf, rf
    Jack Kruger - c, 1b, lf,
    Reid Humpreys- lf, rf, 3b, 1b
    Gavin Collins - 3b, c, lf, rf, 1b, 2b
    Brent Rooker- lf, rf, 1b
    Nathaniel Lowe - 1b
    Cody Brown - lf, cf, rf
    Ryan Gridley - ss, 2b, 3b
    Luke Alexander - ss, 2b, 3b
    Hunter Stovall - 3b, 2b, c
    Elih Marrero - c, lf, rf
    John Holland - 2b, 3b, ss, 1b

  6. #6
    LiL MissBitch alot sleepy dawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Steakonastick View Post
    Jake Mangum- lf, cf, rf
    Jacob Robson - lf, cf, rf
    Jack Kruger - c, 1b, lf,
    Reid Humpreys- lf, rf, 3b, 1b
    Gavin Collins - 3b, c, lf, rf, 1b, 2b
    Brent Rooker- lf, rf, 1b
    Nathaniel Lowe - 1b
    Cody Brown - lf, cf, rf
    Ryan Gridley - ss, 2b, 3b
    Luke Alexander - ss, 2b, 3b
    Hunter Stovall - 3b, 2b, c
    Elih Marrero - c, lf, rf
    John Holland - 2b, 3b, ss, 1b
    Thanks Steakonastick

  7. #7
    Senior Member maroonmania's Avatar
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    How did Holland digress so much between his JR and SR year? He wasn't all that good last year but he wasn't terrible either. Any college player flirting with the Mendoza line that has had a decent number of ABs is having a bad year, real bad.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by maroonmania View Post
    How did Holland digress so much between his JR and SR year? He wasn't all that good last year but he wasn't terrible either. Any college player flirting with the Mendoza line that has had a decent number of ABs is having a bad year, real bad.
    I know he missed the entire fall with I think back issues. And he missed the spring scrimmages too.

  9. #9
    Senior Member maroonmania's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    I know he missed the entire fall with I think back issues. And he missed the spring scrimmages too.
    Yep, forgot that he had been down with injuries himself.

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    Senior Member louisvilledawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    I know he missed the entire fall with I think back issues. And he missed the spring scrimmages too.
    Obviously no coach or anything, but does it look like he pulls off of everything? Seems to me his hips fire way too early and he just tries to yank everything to the right side. Basically if you throw him inside he can hurt you, but everybody has pitched him outside and he either can't reach it or he hits a can-o-corn pop fly. I could be wrong, but I havent seen him get a hit since he hit that faux homerun at Florida

  11. #11
    Senior Member maroonmania's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by louisvilledawg View Post
    Obviously no coach or anything, but does it look like he pulls off of everything? Seems to me his hips fire way too early and he just tries to yank everything to the right side. Basically if you throw him inside he can hurt you, but everybody has pitched him outside and he either can't reach it or he hits a can-o-corn pop fly. I could be wrong, but I havent seen him get a hit since he hit that faux homerun at Florida
    Yep, I've noticed he has a very stiff swing. Seems hard for him to do much of any adjustment once he gets into his swing.

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