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Stat's on MSU's Program in the West
Looking at SEC records since A&M came into the league:
To nobody's surprise, Bama and LSU will be the cream of the crop, with Bama still outpacing LSU by a good bit:
Bama - 27-4
LSU - 19-11
Then A&M, UM, and UM are grouped together:
A&M - 16-14
MSU - 16-14
UM - 15-15
Than Auburn and Ark pull up the rear:
Auburn 13-18
Ark - 8-22
If MSU and LSU loses out, that means we'll finish the last four years 16-16, with A&M and UM finishing 2 and 1 game ahead of us, respectively. (assuming Vandy is a win for A&M). We'll still be ahead of Auburn and Arkansas. One of those is weighed down by an 0-8 SEC record under a previous coach. The other had his own 0-8 season, but will have moved from 0 wins, to 2 wins, to 6 wins in three seasons. But we'll basically look like the fifth best team in the West over that time frame.
If MSU loses out and LSU wins out, we'll finish one game behind A&M and tied with UM. We'll basically be tied with UM and just barely behind A&M for the 4th best team in the west over the past 4 years.
If we win out and LSU wins out, we'll finish a game ahead of A&M and two ahead of UM, and be the 3rd best program in the west over the past four years. If LSU loses out and we win out, then there will barely be any separation between LSU, A&M, UM and MSU over the past four years.
It all comes pretty close enough to even over the past four years that taking east opponents into consideration could change the scenario, but it just goes to show (1) how important finishing strong is for perceptions of MSU and Mullen and (2) how the SEC West really has been Bama and then everybody else lately.
Going back over Mullen's entire tenure, there is Bama then a sizeable gap, then Lsu, then a gap, and A&M (averaging their performance), then MSU, then a slight gap to Auburn and Arkansas, with UM pulling up the rear.
Bama 47-8
LSU 38-16
A&M 29-25 (averaging their previous 3 years SEC record to get a 6 year record and adding the performance so far this year to it).
MSU 25-29
Auburn 23-17
Arkansas 23-31
UM 20-34
Looking at this longer track record, it shows you that (1) a boom and bust cycle is actually better for your program's reputation than steady performance and/or (2) we've done a really poor job of marketing our program. I think it's more of #(1), and that highs just make a bigger positive impression than the lows hurt, but it's still a lot of #(2) also.
Getting to 9-3 really will make a difference for Mullen looking over the long haul, because it will give two really good bowls and potentiall two 10-win seasons to go along with having the third or fourth best performance in the SEC W over the last 7 years. Surely that would move the needle on perception.
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Great breakdown. Thanks. Interesting stuff
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Excellent breakdown. I'd like to see a comparison with MSU against the entirety of the SEC as well. I bet we'd be 6th or 7th at worst in those standings.
Even with the disappointing loss to Bama, I feel like we're slowly improving our stock in the conference and nationally overall. Not as fast as I'd like but still improvement.
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Originally Posted by
Johnson85
Looking at this longer track record, it shows you that (1) a boom and bust cycle is actually better for your program's reputation than steady performance and/or (2) we've done a really poor job of marketing our program. I think it's more of #(1), and that highs just make a bigger positive impression than the lows hurt, but it's still a lot of #(2) also.
Auburn agrees...
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It's pretty obvious that we're still on an overall upward trajectory over Mullen's tenure. When he started, we were good enough to beat the terrible OOC teams we played consistently, and we could also beat SEC teams like Kentucky, Vandy, and Ole Miss. But we would lose to decent OOC teams like Houston and GT and most SEC teams.
Then we got over the hump with the decent OOC teams and started beating some decent SEC teams consistently as well, like Tennessee, Arkansas, and somewhat down Georgia and Florida teams. We still couldn't beat the best of the best in the SEC.
Now we've gotten to a point where we can beat good SEC teams (Auburn, LSU, A&M last year, and though it doesn't count, should have beaten LSU this year as well). And while Auburn isn't good this year, we've now beaten them 3 out of the last 4. We've taken a bit of a step forward without losing the hold we have on bad and decent teams.
Obviously the next step we have to take as a program is to start picking off the elite teams at least here and there. That's probably the hardest step to take, but we've gotten to this point. I just hate when people look only at overall record or take record against a couple cherry-picked teams and try to paint a slightly different picture. Yes, we have to start figuring out a way to beat Bama at all and a program like LSU more consistently. But we're not far away from that.
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Originally Posted by
QuadrupleOption
Excellent breakdown. I'd like to see a comparison with MSU against the entirety of the SEC as well. I bet we'd be 6th or 7th at worst in those standings.
Even with the disappointing loss to Bama, I feel like we're slowly improving our stock in the conference and nationally overall. Not as fast as I'd like but still improvement.
Not sure the right way to do the entire SEC because of the disparity between the divisions. Realistically, we've clearly been better than UK, UT, and Vandy since Mizzou and A&M have joined the league. I'd say we've been better than Mizzou but their record would be as good or better because of their east opponents.
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Originally Posted by
Johnson85
Getting to 9-3 really will make a difference for Mullen looking over the long haul, because it will give two really good bowls and potentiall two 10-win seasons to go along with having the third or fourth best performance in the SEC W over the last 7 years. Surely that would move the needle on perception.
These last two games are huge for our program in my opinion. The 2013 Arkansas and Ole Miss games pretty much started our ascension to some heights we had never seen and I don't want the same 2015 games starting us on a downward trajectory. If we win the last two we will prove that we can sustain a little success and will have something to keep building off after we lose one of the best players in our history.
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To really put it in perspective - we were 11-45 in the 7 years prior to Dan. That is some shitastic football.
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Next year will be a huge year for this program and for Mullen. If we can avoid taking a big step back after losing Dak and guys like Chris Jones, Redmond, Wilson, etc., then I think it will prove that we really have elevated the program to another level and that it is not dependent on one player. I'm talking about going something like 8-4 or better. Honestly, even 7-5 would show that we're capable of maintaining.
And it would also show Mullen that he can keep things going in the right direction. I'm sure he already believes this, but it would be a great sign for his ability to keep things moving in the right direction.
And it would also set us up to have a potentially monster 2017 season, with the QB back and last year's class all into year 3 in the program.
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Banned
If we are going to look at SECW teams (which was the point of your post) let's look at records against the SECW. The records aren't as kind to us...
SEC Records since A&M came into the league (2012) - last Saturday:
Bama - 19-4 (Auburn left this year)
LSU - 13-9 (Bears and A&M left this year)
A&M - 12-11 (LSU left this year)
Miss - 11-11 (LSU and us left this year)
MSU - 9-13 (Ark and Bears left this year)
AU 9-14 (Bama left)
Ark - 6-17 (Us left this year)
Basically - your premise is correct. It's Bama and everyone else. But depending on how the last two weeks shake out - we could have a 3 way tie for second between LSU, OM and A&M. It's doubtful - but they are basically the next tier and you could arguably put us in that group because a 11-13 4 year record isn't out of the question. AU and Arkansas are pulling up the rear with a dismal 4 year average (one that includes a national championship game?)
Now - I'm a MSU fan that has been banned from posting here before - hence my first post under this username. Ban me again - but the facts won't change. I'll remain a reader....
I'm done with Dan and I'm done with mediocrity. Even if we win out and the Bears lose out - we've got the exact same record against SEC W opponents since A&M joined the league. That's unacceptable. Especially when you consider we are about to graduate the best QB in school history. Dan has done less with more (most exposure, best facilities, biggest budget, most football friendly Athletic Admin etc.) than any coach in MSU history.
Overall SEC Record is important - but it's not apples to apples. It's probably fair to compare us against the Bears since we get UK and they get Vandy every year - but measuring our record against SECW opponents is a better measure for your premise.
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Senior Member
Originally Posted by
Just the Facts
If we are going to look at SECW teams (which was the point of your post) let's look at records against the SECW. The records aren't as kind to us...
SEC Records since A&M came into the league (2012) - last Saturday:
Bama - 19-4 (Auburn left this year)
LSU - 13-9 (Bears and A&M left this year)
A&M - 12-11 (LSU left this year)
Miss - 11-11 (LSU and us left this year)
MSU - 9-13 (Ark and Bears left this year)
AU 9-14 (Bama left)
Ark - 6-17 (Us left this year)
Basically - your premise is correct. It's Bama and everyone else. But depending on how the last two weeks shake out - we could have a 3 way tie for second between LSU, OM and A&M. It's doubtful - but they are basically the next tier and you could arguably put us in that group because a 11-13 4 year record isn't out of the question. AU and Arkansas are pulling up the rear with a dismal 4 year average (one that includes a national championship game?)
Now - I'm a MSU fan that has been banned from posting here before - hence my first post under this username. Ban me again - but the facts won't change. I'll remain a reader....
I'm done with Dan and I'm done with mediocrity. Even if we win out and the Bears lose out - we've got the exact same record against SEC W opponents since A&M joined the league. That's unacceptable. Especially when you consider we are about to graduate the best QB in school history. Dan has done less with more (most exposure, best facilities, biggest budget, most football friendly Athletic Admin etc.) than any coach in MSU history.
Overall SEC Record is important - but it's not apples to apples. It's probably fair to compare us against the Bears since we get UK and they get Vandy every year - but measuring our record against SECW opponents is a better measure for your premise.
You lack all perspective about the history of our football program...
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Just The Facts is not a State fan- this has been their BS on twitter today. But he certainly has a point
Walk like the King or walk like you don't care who the King is
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I understand we have made tremendous strides, but to think we should be winning the west every year is asinine. Damn I hate to be "this guy", but some of yall need perspective and get over your preseason prognostications being incorrect. If you want to bitch about something bring up the lack of pay for quality assistants, lack of creatively in crucial situations, and a reduction in the physical nature of the o-line. If anything,Mullen needs to swallow some pride to let assistant coaches do their thing. As bad as he may feel the need to control every aspect, it may be more beneficial for he and the team if found someone he could trust and let go a little.
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Mullen ain't that bad after all which anyone with logical thinking can see.
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Originally Posted by
Just the Facts
If we are going to look at SECW teams (which was the point of your post) let's look at records against the SECW. The records aren't as kind to us...
SEC Records since A&M came into the league (2012) - last Saturday:
Bama - 19-4 (Auburn left this year)
LSU - 13-9 (Bears and A&M left this year)
A&M - 12-11 (LSU left this year)
Miss - 11-11 (LSU and us left this year)
MSU - 9-13 (Ark and Bears left this year)
AU 9-14 (Bama left)
Ark - 6-17 (Us left this year)
Basically - your premise is correct. It's Bama and everyone else. But depending on how the last two weeks shake out - we could have a 3 way tie for second between LSU, OM and A&M. It's doubtful - but they are basically the next tier and you could arguably put us in that group because a 11-13 4 year record isn't out of the question. AU and Arkansas are pulling up the rear with a dismal 4 year average (one that includes a national championship game?)
Now - I'm a MSU fan that has been banned from posting here before - hence my first post under this username. Ban me again - but the facts won't change. I'll remain a reader....
I'm done with Dan and I'm done with mediocrity. Even if we win out and the Bears lose out - we've got the exact same record against SEC W opponents since A&M joined the league. That's unacceptable. Especially when you consider we are about to graduate the best QB in school history. Dan has done less with more (most exposure, best facilities, biggest budget, most football friendly Athletic Admin etc.) than any coach in MSU history.
Overall SEC Record is important - but it's not apples to apples. It's probably fair to compare us against the Bears since we get UK and they get Vandy every year - but measuring our record against SECW opponents is a better measure for your premise.
Just in cast you're a bear in sheep's clothing, shouldn't the bears be performing at a much higher level than MSU given the recruiting championships? I can't wait to see Elston pay for his cheap shot on Dak last year.
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.500 in the SEC is about all we can expect year to year.
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Originally Posted by
Dallas_Dawg
.500 in the SEC is about all we can expect year to year.
I don't think that's necessarily true. I think .500 against the West over the long term is a reasonable ceiling for our program. In the current climate, that would have us alternating between 5-3 and 6-2 on average each year. Some years, that might be good enough to win the West. We are pretty much ahead of every East team except for Florida, and we are beating our East permanent each year.
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I don't believe anyone is saying we should win the west yearly. People are saying that dan has lost all creativity and imagination with his play calling and handling of this team. What he's has done since Auburn game 2014 is take his stock car, put her in 3rd gear on cruise, while hoping all the cars in front of him wreck and he can win the race. You cannot coach football this way and expect to win the SEC. I'm sorry if some of you aren't willing to acknowledge this but this season is a prime example of Dan putting it on cruise control hoping we can win. Dan's 2009 play calling with Dak and this team and we have 1 loss, maybe. Time for everyone to face the music.
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