I think your observation is right on point. The '21 and '22 App. St. offenses were mirror images statistically. Here are their conference ranks for lots of offensive categories in Sun Belt games the past two years:
That makes sense for a couple of reasons. First, they brought back their starting QB from '21, who was a senior in '22, and their two leading rushers from '21. (The slight dip in the passing numbers also makes sense given that they lost their three leading receivers from '21, all of whom were seniors.)
And second, Barbay said out of the gate that his plan wasn't to change what App. St. was doing but was instead to add wrinkles while retaining what the offensive players did well. Check out this podcast interview with some App. St. dudes before the '22 season started and go to the 1-hour, 25-minute mark:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000553396384
Over 5 or 10 minutes, he talks about his offensive philosophy. Most of what he says focuses on pretty common ideas -- spread people out, playmakers in space, matchup skill guys on weak defenders, tempo, being aggressive, etc. -- but a couple of other things stuck out. He emphasized his need to study what App. St. had been doing well in previous years so that he could "mesh" his ideas with the offense that was already installed. That dovetailed into his discussion of using playmakers in space and focusing on using what you have -- if your most explosive guys are three RBs, you figure out how to get them the ball in space, but if it's a bunch of WRs, you get those dudes the ball. He also mentioned how his weeks during the season were heavy on situational analytics, like what plays/schemes typically work on specific downs and distances.
I haven't watched tons of film, but looking at App. St.'s offense in '21 vs. Coastal Carolina, it indeed looks pretty similar to what the M&W Nation article says Barbay did in '22:
Barbay also mentions in one point that part of his fit at App. St. was the connection between the head coach Shawn Clark and Jim McElwain and that the overall schemes weren't too different. I didn't catch him saying what that connection was other than the fact that Clark and his staff had visited McElwain's staffs over the years to learn from him, and the only other thing I've found at a quick glance was that Clark was a GA at Louisville while McElwain coached WR there in the early 00s. I'd be interested to know exactly what wrinkles he brought with him to App. St. given the personnel he had there.
I'm of course more curious, though, about what all this means for MSU. Adding wrinkles to a system and then largely keeping intact what the players know how to do makes sense for lots of reasons, but especially so when what you've previously run is similar to what they were doing anyway. But I'm really interested to see how that translates to a team running the Leach air raid over the past three years. Barring a change in QB, and assuming that the flexible approach he touted in his interview before the '22 season is still a priority, maybe that means more continuity for us than the flavor of his '22 offense would otherwise lead us to believe? And if not, what scheme is he going with? The one from App. St. that seems to resemble what App. St. did before his arrival? Or something different? Regardless, I'm excited to watch it play out.
Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain.
I think your observation is right on point. The '21 and '22 App. St. offenses were mirror images statistically. Here are their conference ranks for lots of offensive categories in Sun Belt games the past two years:
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