Easter Sunday Severe?

[parabrave]

As a follow-up, here is the NAM sounding for around the Columbus, MS area for around 7 PM Sunday. What this shows is a perfect environment for rapid storm development if it verifies.

Please decipher/

[TheRef]

Please decipher/

Essentially what the sounding is showing is that the upper atmosphere is modeled to be perfect for a late-afternoon/evening building up of storms that if left isolated from the rest of the system, could develop into a dangerous cell. If you look at the hodograph that is accompanying that sounding (which I can post as well if you'd like), shows a perfect arc of winds that will create a natural upwards spin to the cell. This will provide an upper-level support that can be developed if enough moisture and heat is laid down ahead of time. Essentially, if you are in the highest-risk area and you wake up Sunday morning to clear sunny skies, it's going to be a LONG day.

[MetEdDawg]

Please decipher/

Basically the atmosphere has very solid conditions to support severe weather. Winds are veering with height to support rotating updrafts. There will be enough convection energy to support strong thunderstorms. Saturation will happen rapidly, so the surface based nature of these storms will be very supportive of maintaining potentially dangerous severe weather, most specifically including tornadoes.

Basically it's not good at all. Very likely we have a major severe weather event.

[starkvegasdawg]

Let me be clear that I am in NO way saying Sunday is going to approach this, but some of the computer based analogs are using 4/27/11 as a comparison. I still don't think we come close to that event, but it does give some idea to the level of dynamics we're dealing with. I am saying now that if things remain unchanged there will be a high risk area. What I am getting interested in is how far north this goes. Some of the models are starting to trend it further north.

[Bubb Rubb]

Let me be clear that I am in NO way saying Sunday is going to approach this, but some of the computer based analogs are using 4/27/11 as a comparison. I still don't think we come close to that event, but it does give some idea to the level of dynamics we're dealing with. I am saying now that if things remain unchanged there will be a high risk area. What I am getting interested in is how far north this goes. Some of the models are starting to trend it further north.

This thing is getting more and more frightening with every new model run. I hesitate to compare to 4/27 but based on what we're seeing, you certainly can't rule it out.

[parabrave]

The chart reminds me of the 1st time I looked at my aviators wheel and learning how to use it.

[starkvegasdawg]

This thing is getting more and more frightening with every new model run. I hesitate to compare to 4/27 but based on what we're seeing, you certainly can't rule it out.

Yeah, any reputable meteorologist / weather person is always extremely hesitant to compare anything to 4/27. But this has the potential, if it all sets up correctly, to at least be in the same zip code. But that's something we won't know until it starts. There are still some things that could reduce the intensity of this. That's why 4/27 was such a rare event. It was the perfect set up.

[Bubb Rubb]

Yeah, any reputable meteorologist / weather person is always extremely hesitant to compare anything to 4/27. But this has the potential, if it all sets up correctly, to at least be in the same zip code. But that's something we won't know until it starts. There are still some things that could reduce the intensity of this. That's why 4/27 was such a rare event. It was the perfect set up.

The biggest thing to me is timing....is the early morning convection going to crap up the atmosphere and will there be enough time allowed for heating to re-energize things. Right now the models suggest this won't be a problem.

[Indndawg]

you expecting the central part of MS to be under a Level 5?

[starkvegasdawg]

The biggest thing to me is timing....is the early morning convection going to crap up the atmosphere and will there be enough time allowed for heating to re-energize things. Right now the models suggest this won't be a problem.

Yeah. I don't think it'll be much of an issue, but that's one of the things that will have to be reconciled to determine how big of a day this ends up. Again, not making comparisons, but 4/27 had a morning and afternoon round. The Smithville EF-5 was that morning and the atmosphere recovered to then produce that outbreak in the afternoon.

[RocketDawg]

When do the next model runs come out?

[starkvegasdawg]

you expecting the central part of MS to be under a Level 5?

I think it's highly likely. I was talking with a meteorologist from one of the area tv stations who got some info from somewhere that the 45% hatched threat level that the SPC has for the moderate risk area is for tornado and wind. If that is accurate, then the 45% for tornado is enough for a day 1 high risk. They do not issue a high risk on day 3 and only for 60% hatched on day 2 for tornado. However, for day 1 the threshold drops to 30% hatched for tornado to warrant a high risk so if we maintain the 45% hatched then a high risk is guaranteed.

[RocketDawg]

Yeah. I don't think it'll be much of an issue, but that's one of the things that will have to be reconciled to determine how big of a day this ends up. Again, not making comparisons, but 4/27 had a morning and afternoon round. The Smithville EF-5 was that morning and the atmosphere recovered to then produce that outbreak in the afternoon.

That's interesting. I didn't realize the Smithville 5 was in the morning. How much time elapsed between the Smithville one and when the one formed just across the state line near Hamilton, AL? Things didn't really get kicking around north Alabama until mid-afternoon, if I recall correctly, but the Hamilton/Hackleburg hung together through here (a somewhat lower intensity level) and into Tennessee.

[starkvegasdawg]

When do the next model runs come out?

The euro runs twice a day at 7:00am/pm. The nam and gfs run at those times plus 1:00am/pm. However, there is a lag between when they run and when they're available. You'll get the nam runs a couple hours later. The gfs and euro can take 4-6 hours.

[starkvegasdawg]

That's interesting. I didn't realize the Smithville 5 was in the morning. How much time elapsed between the Smithville one and when the one formed just across the state line near Hamilton, AL? Things didn't really get kicking around north Alabama until mid-afternoon, if I recall correctly, but the Hamilton/Hackleburg hung together through here (a somewhat lower intensity level) and into Tennessee.

Ok. I was dead wrong. I could have sworn the Smithville tornado was in the morning but it touched down at 3:44pm. Now I have no idea what tornado I was thinking about.

[RocketDawg]

Maybe the Tupelo one that was in a different year? I recall seeing it on a church's video. I don't remember if it was morning or not though, but it was memorable. Or maybe the Louisville one that was part of the 4/27 outbreak?

[RocketDawg]

The euro runs twice a day at 7:00am/pm. The nam and gfs run at those times plus 1:00am/pm. However, there is a lag between when they run and when they're available. You'll get the nam runs a couple hours later. The gfs and euro can take 4-6 hours.

Thanks. So NAM and GFS sometime later this afternoon. Euro maybe midnight.

[Bubb Rubb]

Maybe the Tupelo one that was in a different year? I recall seeing it on a church's video. I don't remember if it was morning or not though, but it was memorable. Or maybe the Louisville one that was part of the 4/27 outbreak?

The Tupelo one was a big deal, but I don't really remember the setup for it being anything like what we're seeing for Sunday.

[starkvegasdawg]

Thanks. So NAM and GFS sometime later this afternoon. Euro maybe midnight.

We'll get the 1:00pm NAM around 3:30 or so and the 7:00pm NAM around 9:3. The GFS will be around 6:00 and midnight respectively. The euro will roll in around 1:30am give or take. SPC should update for the new Day 2 which will be Sunday around 1:00-1:30am.

[Commercecomet24]

How's it looking for Jones/Jasper county area? Appreciate all your jnfo!