The Alabama Dynasty is Dead

[Apoplectic]

It died tonight

Nick saban won?t win a national title again and he will probably retire in 2 years

I know many have said it but it?s so dead, A major part of why is the fact that Nick doesn?t have 3rd stringers that would start almost anywhere anymore.

Due to the transfer portal and the NIL, places like Texas A&M can buy all these recruits that saban wanted to have fill his depth , do absolutely nothing with them and A&M goes 5-7 with them

Saban has proven time and time that he?s not that great of a coach with equal talent. It?s in the data.

[WhiskeyPirate]

Saban has proven time and time that he?s not that great of a coach with equal talent. It?s in the data.

Exactly

Saban is going to retire soon. It will be interesting to see who replaces him.

[TUSK]

Saban has proven time and time that he's not that great of a coach with equal talent. It's in the data.

I'd like to see that data set (as it relates to college football).

You got an XLS you'd share?

[R2Dawg]

I'd like to see that data set (as it relates to college football).

You got an XLS you'd share?

Any data available would be purely subjective. I could make one up and you could too. Why? Who says what about talent? Recruiting stars or all conf teams or what?

In general he has had more talent that 90% of teams he plays and he wins. So that supports the theory.

So look at his losses. UT and LSU this year. I'd say he either has more talent than both or same and he lost both. Everyone else this year, he clearly has more talent.

Do that for any year - last year NC game, Clemson, Utah a few years back. The data seems to say that hypothesis seems true.



What Saban brings to table is the recruiting machine. Plain and simple. He didn't win big until he got his talent in there.

[dawgday166]

Any data available would be purely subjective. I could make one up and you could too. Why? Who says what about talent? Recruiting stars or all conf teams or what?

In general he has had more talent that 90% of teams he plays and he wins. So that supports the theory.

So look at his losses. UT and LSU this year. I'd say he either has more talent than both or same and he lost both. Everyone else this year, he clearly has more talent.

Do that for any year - last year NC game, Clemson, Utah a few years back. The data seems to say that hypothesis seems true.



What Saban brings to table is the recruiting machine. Plain and simple. He didn't win big until he got his talent in there.

Saban even supposedly told Mal Moore that when he was hired.

ETA: That was probably his way of telling Moore the Boosters gonna need to open those checkbooks up.

[TUSK]

I cannot disagree.

I was responding to: ? Saban has proven time and time that he?s not that great of a coach with equal talent. It?s in the data.?

What I was asking for was the data re: Saban vs teams with = talent. There is certainly a small sample size, but I would be still be interested in seeing it.

[Johnson85]

Any data available would be purely subjective. I could make one up and you could too. Why? Who says what about talent? Recruiting stars or all conf teams or what?

In general he has had more talent that 90% of teams he plays and he wins. So that supports the theory.

So look at his losses. UT and LSU this year. I'd say he either has more talent than both or same and he lost both. Everyone else this year, he clearly has more talent.

Do that for any year - last year NC game, Clemson, Utah a few years back. The data seems to say that hypothesis seems true.



What Saban brings to table is the recruiting machine. Plain and simple. He didn't win big until he got his talent in there.

If all Saban brought to the table was the recruiting machine, we'd be talking about A&M's big win over Bama. Saban is a really good college coach. When he plays against other really good college coaches with similar talent, he is not invincible. He has lost to Kirby Smart, Kelly, Dabo, Meyer, Malzahn. But he's beaten them also. I think the only person that can claim to have a winning record against Saban with similar talent is Kelly, as he never had legitimate talent at Notre Dame.

[dawgday166]

If all Saban brought to the table was the recruiting machine, we'd be talking about A&M's big win over Bama. Saban is a really good college coach. When he plays against other really good college coaches with similar talent, he is not invincible. He has lost to Kirby Smart, Kelly, Dabo, Meyer, Malzahn. But he's beaten them also. I think the only person that can claim to have a winning record against Saban with similar talent is Kelly, as he never had legitimate talent at Notre Dame.

And add Jimbo and Croom LOL. And of course Hugh Freeze was wearing him out too ****

Going off of 247 rankings, I'm pretty sure Dabo has never had Bama talent and in fact Dabo's 1st Natty team's highest ranked class was 9th if I recall correctly. Ohio St. with Meyer in 2014 didn't have the talent Saban did, especially on the Oline which, if I recall correctly, had an unranked center, and a 3 star guard and tackle too.

I'm guessing Kirby is actually the guy that has had pretty equal talent to Saban the most in this list of coaches. Croom probably did too ****

I've checked some of this stuff out before, but didn't today. I could be off on some of it.

[Johnson85]

And add Jimbo and Croom LOL.

Going off of 247 rankings, I'm pretty sure Dabo has never had Bama talent and in fact Dabo's 1st Natty team's highest ranked class was 9th if I recall correctly. Ohio St. with Meyer in 2014 didn't have the talent Saban did, especially on the Oline which, if I recall correctly, had an unranked center, and a 3 star guard and tackle too.

I'm guessing Kirby is actually the guy that has had pretty equal talent to Saban the most in this list of coaches. Croom probably did too ****

I've checked some of this stuff out before, but didn't today. I could be off on some of it.

Hard to say who has more talent when you get to the blue bloods. I'd say looking at NFL players would give a good start, except I think in football how strong your weakest link is is often times just as important as who has the best player on the field (contrast to basketball where the team with the best player usually wins unless there is a big gap in the rest of the players).

[dawgday166]

Hard to say who has more talent when you get to the blue bloods. I'd say looking at NFL players would give a good start, except I think in football how strong your weakest link is is often times just as important as who has the best player on the field (contrast to basketball where the team with the best player usually wins unless there is a big gap in the rest of the players).

I think I looked that up one time and almost positive Bama dominates the pros. Not entirely sure but I'm thinking LSU was 2nd.

ETA: I'll also add MSU dominates the best Dlinemen **

[dawgday166]

delete

[HancockCountyDog]

I'd like to see that data set (as it relates to college football).

You got an XLS you'd share?

I think it is pretty easy to go through each year and objectively look at the teams that most would agree are equally as talented as Bama and come up with a list and then check his record.

Look, Saban has said it himself, he isn't the world's greatest game day coach, he is the best recruiter college football has ever seen. Now that NIL is here, i do think it will be harder to keep that title moving forward.

[Pancho]

assistant coach turnover is playing a role in this as well.

[HancockCountyDog]

Lets take a look starting in 2010 - that seems fair. Now most of these teams do not have as much talent as Bama, the NFL draft and any other reasonable metric will pretty much confirm that. Sure there are times they went against a more or equally talented team (2019 LSU) but i'll try and be as fair as possible.

In 2010 -

Arkansas
Florida
LSU
Auburn

Any argument that the other teams on the schedule were close to Bama talentwise is a lie.

His record in those 4 games = 2-2

Only issue is that he also lost to South Carolina that year by 14 points.

2011

An incredibly talented Bama team, might be one of Saban's best ever. That year LSU was equally talented - they played two awesome games.

Saban went 1-1.

2012

This was at the height of their powers - i mean they were really good. Games that were equal?

LSU
A&M
UGA

He went 2-1 and won national title against a terrible ND team that goes .500 in the SEC.

2013

This was a turning point year for Saban after telling people that going fast causes injuries, after this year he either changed his mind or was just talking shit.

A&M
LSU
AU
OU

He went 2-2, and i'm being generous with LSU, because the wheels started coming off the Les Miles bus in 2014.

2014

Another great team, but he still hadn't figured out how to go fast and run an RPO.

OM
LSU
MSU
AU
OSU

Once again, i'm being generous with LSU, because they weren't good in 2014, but they still had talent and it was in Baton Rouge. I don't think the bears or us were as talented as they were in 2014, but we were pretty damn good.

His Record was 3-2.

2015 - Another extremely talented team, one of his best. Very few teams could claim to be close to their talent level. Being generous lets say the following:

OM
LSU
FL
Clemson

That is being extremely generous. This was the peak of the talent difference between Bama and the rest of the country.

He went 3-1. Solid record.

2016 - Basically the same thing as the year before - just a monster program. From a talent standpoint, I'd say:

LSU
Clemson

He went 1-1

2017

Bama was still rolling with talent. Teams on the same talent level are getting fewer and fewer:

AU
Clemson
UGA

He went 2-1

2018

Ok, Georgia and LSU are on their way up, everyone else on their way down. Teams that are close:

LSU
UGA
OU
Clemson

He went 3-1, really good team, he did get destroyed by Clemson though.

2019

LSU
AU

I don't think there is argument that any other team that season had near the talent of Bama. I don't think its close.

He went 0-2 that year.

2020

Monster team - probably the best WR corps in the history of college football. Metchie, Waddle, Smith, Najee Harris and a first round QB. Team was as good as any of his other teams.

Lets pretend that the following teams had equal talent:

FL
UGA
OSU

He went 3-0 in those games, though no rational person would say they were as talented as that 2020 Bama team. Especially not a single NFL GM.

2021

Things start to get tight. Close wins over some bad teams like FL, LSU, Arkansas, AU. Losses to an average A&M team and talented UGA team. I think you start seeing that despite a clear talent advantage, he is in close games for the first time in a while. As for teams with equal talent there was only one team last year that had equal talent to Bama and that was:

UGA

He went 1-1, but also lost to a clearly inferior A&M team so that puts him at 1-2.

2022

Cracks are clearly ever. Close wins against UT, A&M and now losses to Tenn and LSU. He has not played a team with equal talent to Bama this year. LSU has some talent, but nothing close to what Bama has this year, but i'll pretend they do :

Tenn
LSU

So 0-2 against teams that aren't as talented, but its somewhat close.

Lets add it up:

I think its 23-18, but someone can correct me if I added it up wrong.

So yeah when the playing field regarding talent is even or a little less than even Saban is a slightly above .500 coach.

[dawgday166]

Pretty decent analysis right there HCD.

[Johnson85]

Lets take a look starting in 2010 - that seems fair. Now most of these teams do not have as much talent as Bama, the NFL draft and any other reasonable metric will pretty much confirm that. Sure there are times they went against a more or equally talented team (2019 LSU) but i'll try and be as fair as possible.

In 2010 -

Arkansas
Florida
LSU
Auburn

Any argument that the other teams on the schedule were close to Bama talentwise is a lie.

His record in those 4 games = 2-2

Only issue is that he also lost to South Carolina that year by 14 points.

2011

An incredibly talented Bama team, might be one of Saban's best ever. That year LSU was equally talented - they played two awesome games.

Saban went 1-1.

2012

This was at the height of their powers - i mean they were really good. Games that were equal?

LSU
A&M
UGA

He went 2-1 and won national title against a terrible ND team that goes .500 in the SEC.

2013

This was a turning point year for Saban after telling people that going fast causes injuries, after this year he either changed his mind or was just talking shit.

A&M
LSU
AU
OU

He went 2-2, and i'm being generous with LSU, because the wheels started coming off the Les Miles bus in 2014.

2014

Another great team, but he still hadn't figured out how to go fast and run an RPO.

OM
LSU
MSU
AU
OSU

Once again, i'm being generous with LSU, because they weren't good in 2014, but they still had talent and it was in Baton Rouge. I don't think the bears or us were as talented as they were in 2014, but we were pretty damn good.

His Record was 3-2.

2015 - Another extremely talented team, one of his best. Very few teams could claim to be close to their talent level. Being generous lets say the following:

OM
LSU
FL
Clemson

That is being extremely generous. This was the peak of the talent difference between Bama and the rest of the country.

He went 3-1. Solid record.

2016 - Basically the same thing as the year before - just a monster program. From a talent standpoint, I'd say:

LSU
Clemson

He went 1-1

2017

Bama was still rolling with talent. Teams on the same talent level are getting fewer and fewer:

AU
Clemson
UGA

He went 2-1

2018

Ok, Georgia and LSU are on their way up, everyone else on their way down. Teams that are close:

LSU
UGA
OU
Clemson

He went 3-1, really good team, he did get destroyed by Clemson though.

2019

LSU
AU

I don't think there is argument that any other team that season had near the talent of Bama. I don't think its close.

He went 0-2 that year.

2020

Monster team - probably the best WR corps in the history of college football. Metchie, Waddle, Smith, Najee Harris and a first round QB. Team was as good as any of his other teams.

Lets pretend that the following teams had equal talent:

FL
UGA
OSU

He went 3-0 in those games, though no rational person would say they were as talented as that 2020 Bama team. Especially not a single NFL GM.

2021

Things start to get tight. Close wins over some bad teams like FL, LSU, Arkansas, AU. Losses to an average A&M team and talented UGA team. I think you start seeing that despite a clear talent advantage, he is in close games for the first time in a while. As for teams with equal talent there was only one team last year that had equal talent to Bama and that was:

UGA

He went 1-1, but also lost to a clearly inferior A&M team so that puts him at 1-2.

2022

Cracks are clearly ever. Close wins against UT, A&M and now losses to Tenn and LSU. He has not played a team with equal talent to Bama this year. LSU has some talent, but nothing close to what Bama has this year, but i'll pretend they do :

Tenn
LSU

So 0-2 against teams that aren't as talented, but its somewhat close.

Lets add it up:

I think its 23-18, but someone can correct me if I added it up wrong.

So yeah when the playing field regarding talent is even or a little less than even Saban is a slightly above .500 coach.

That's great detail, my only quibble is that I would consider all of those coaches he lost to other than Miles and Jimbo good to really good coaches and/or staffs. So yes, he's going roughly .500 against other mostly really good coaches, while almost completely avoiding any WTF losses (A&M or one of the Ole Miss losses is probably the worst one?)

And I am not disagreeing with the premise that NIL is going to bring them back down to earth. I'm just saying that he is a good coach outside of recruiting also. Maybe not the best coach, but he's up there near them.

[HancockCountyDog]

That's great detail, my only quibble is that I would consider all of those coaches he lost to other than Miles and Jimbo good to really good coaches and/or staffs. So yes, he's going roughly .500 against other mostly really good coaches, while almost completely avoiding any WTF losses (A&M or one of the Ole Miss losses is probably the worst one?)

And I am not disagreeing with the premise that NIL is going to bring them back down to earth. I'm just saying that he is a good coach outside of recruiting also. Maybe not the best coach, but he's up there near them.

Almost every coach he lost to on that list was fired from their job.

Chizik
Sumlin
Freeze
Miles
Coach O
Spurrier
Mahzaln
Meyer - (yeah i get he left in disgrace, but still)

Prior to this year, only Kirby, Jimbo and Dabo are the coaches that have beaten him and still have their job and Jimbo is only still employed because there are 86 million reasons to not fire him.

There is a reason Saban left the Dolphins. He couldn't create the talent advantage that he needs to be dominant.

[Johnson85]

Almost every coach he lost to on that list was fired from their job.

Chizik - Shit, I forgot about Chizik. He did have a generational QB at QB and some legit DL on that team though. That can cover up a lack of coaching.
Sumlin - Um, also sort of forgot about Sumlin. But again, generational college QB and big time talent. And it's not like Sumlin is a shitty coach.
Freeze - Freeze is a good coach and they had bought some high end talent. Plus, one year, Lane refused to just run it down their throat despite averaging 5+ yds a carry. That's one of the bigger failures on Saban; you gotta protect your OC from himself at that point.
Miles - Said he wasn't good.
Coach O - Coach O is who I was referring to when I said "and/or staffs". They had a good staff that year. O was a manager/figurehead.
Spurrier - That was probably another bad loss, but are we saying Spurrier isn't a good coach now?
Mahzaln - Mahlzan got fired because Auburn is dysfunctional, not because he's a bad coach.
Meyer - (yeah i get he left in disgrace, but still) I'd say Meyers is a lot like Saban; good at running a college program; too reliant on the recruiting to translate to the NFL

Prior to this year, only Kirby, Jimbo and Dabo are the coaches that have beaten him and still have their job and Jimbo is only still employed because there are 86 million reasons to not fire him.

There is a reason Saban left the Dolphins. He couldn't create the talent advantage that he needs to be dominant.

What NFL coach is dominant? Even in the NFL, you are very reliant on identifying talent, not just coaching.

[HancockCountyDog]

What NFL coach is dominant? Even in the NFL, you are very reliant on identifying talent, not just coaching.

That is true, but you forget that Head Coaches are arrogant. If their team wins, its because they were leading the team. It was their brilliance that led to the victory.

No coach wants to admit that they can't win without the right players. That makes them look weak and not worth the 10s of millions of dollars that they get paid.

Bottom line is that Jimmy Johnson said it back in the 80s and it has never been more true, its not about X's and O's, its about Jimmy's and Joe's.

Saban is the greatest recruiter of all time. He has built a dynasty that we've never seen before.

If the aliens come down and there are two identical teams that have to play a game for our ability to keep the planet, Saban is not in the top 20 coaches I would pick.

[R2Dawg]

If all Saban brought to the table was the recruiting machine, we'd be talking about A&M's big win over Bama. Saban is a really good college coach. When he plays against other really good college coaches with similar talent, he is not invincible. He has lost to Kirby Smart, Kelly, Dabo, Meyer, Malzahn. But he's beaten them also. I think the only person that can claim to have a winning record against Saban with similar talent is Kelly, as he never had legitimate talent at Notre Dame.

I'm not saying he is not a good coach, he is but I don't believe the worship Saban and he is unbeatable. He has the advantage in talent nearly every week. Of course who gets that talent? Saban

I agree too that money and recruiting stars don't mean a championship either.