Tropical update

[parabrave]

It's almost been 87 years since 2 named storms hit the us on the same day.

14 - soon to be laura will be the stonger storm it appears, so heads up to la/tx area. 13 will be slower to develop and will be fighting against the outflow of 13-Laura is the current thought this afternoon as it approaches florida.

Lots to watch. will know a lot more by sat night.

e
This looks eerily similar to the latest model. One good thing for the coast is the the western system will push the other one more easterly into the panhandle or even up the gold coast/

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest runs now have both becoming minimal hurricanes. One interesting thing to see is if they get close enough to each other to initiate the Fujiwhara effect. Basically, a rare phenomenon where the two systems rotate around each other or merge into one big storm. As of right now, both systems should miss the MS coast, but if this were to happen it could pull one or both closer to us.

[Cooterpoot]

2020 is just clowning us at this point. I fully expect sharknadoes from this Fujiwhara.

[starkvegasdawg]

As the one system continues to have its track pushed further west I have now put in my intention at work to go chase it if things hold. I need a landfall at or west of Pensacola to pull the trigger. Right now I think I'm going to get that.

[AROB44]

As the one system continues to have its track pushed further west I have now put in my intention at work to go chase it if things hold. I need a landfall at or west of Pensacola to pull the trigger. Right now I think I'm going to get that.

Please not west of P'cola. That's where I am. I'm pulling for east of P'cola.

[starkvegasdawg]

13L is now Laura. Forecast track continues to put it near Pensacola in the early morning hours of Wednesday. Some of the spaghetti models are still trying to shift it further west to near the Gulf Shores area. Will see if that trend continues by midday when the next batch of model runs come in.

[parabrave]

The GFS has been the most consistent track with landfall in the panhandle.

[RocketDawg]

13L is now Laura. Forecast track continues to put it near Pensacola in the early morning hours of Wednesday. Some of the spaghetti models are still trying to shift it further west to near the Gulf Shores area. Will see if that trend continues by midday when the next batch of model runs come in.

Were there any changes at midday?

[starkvegasdawg]

Were there any changes at midday?

Indeed. The gfs has about killed it off and a lot of the other guidance has shifted it west almost far enough to clear LA. About to check some other models now.

[RocketDawg]

Indeed. The gfs has about killed it off and a lot of the other guidance has shifted it west almost far enough to clear LA. About to check some other models now.

That's a pretty big change with just a matter of hours between runs.

[starkvegasdawg]

That's a pretty big change with just a matter of hours between runs.

It gets better. The euro now has it hitting central LA as a mid range tropical storm. The Canadian brings it in over Biloxi as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. I have never seen this much spread amongst models this close to potential landfall. I hope they all agree on a solution by Sunday when I have to let my boss know about taking off work.

ETA: official nhc track is now coming into Biloxi as a hurricane Wednesday afternoon. Check back tonight and I'm sure it'll have changed to South Carolina as a blizzard.

[ScoobaDawg]

That's a pretty big change with just a matter of hours between runs.

Happens a lot on individual runs.. it's why you want to look at multiple runs to make a consensus.

GFS is coming in now. biggest thing will be watching is how strong the ridge drapped over the se is, which keeps laura from going straight up the leg of fl.. and instead keeps pushing her west.
which will have an effect on td 14 if it can ever get spun up.

[ScoobaDawg]

It gets better. The euro now has it hitting central LA as a mid range tropical storm. The Canadian brings it in over Biloxi as a strong tropical storm or minimal hurricane. I have never seen this much spread amongst models this close to potential landfall. I hope they all agree on a solution by Sunday when I have to let my boss know about taking off work.

ETA: official nhc track is now coming into Biloxi as a hurricane Wednesday afternoon. Check back tonight and I'm sure it'll have changed to South Carolina as a blizzard.

You know hurricane forecasting is already a crap shot 5 days out..throwing a second storm into the gulf... just makes things crazy to predict. Sunday night likely is a good mark to know something better, does Laura go over the mountains in Hispaniola? if so, does she survive and at what intensity. Generally stronger storms want to curve north vs riding west, so then that ridge comes into the picture.

Just have to see when these things get going. Laura technically shouldn't be a TS currently.. it's more like an open wave with the mid and low level centers are stretched out from each other.

[Cooterpoot]

Looks like that dildo theory is coming to fruition. One west of us and one right at us. Seeing forecasts for up to 10 inches of rain in central MS.

[parabrave]

as of 5"30 the GFS, wrf and Mon have it coming into Galveston. The official NHC track is still on a Katerina track.

[ScoobaDawg]

newest gfs slams cental louisana with a major cane at 964mb wed night. td14 never develops into much. much to watch

[starkvegasdawg]

newest gfs slams cental louisana with a major cane at 964mb wed night. td14 never develops into much. much to watch

Now waiting for the 00z run.

[Cooterpoot]

newest gfs slams cental louisana with a major cane at 964mb wed night. td14 never develops into much. much to watch

Wait, What?

[parabrave]

Wait, What?

Bye Cooter and Offshore dog. better get your pirous ready.

[parabrave]

Hey Vdog you better get to grand Isle or Port Fourchen before they close the highway to get your best videotaping spots.. T