Will Nick Run the Ball Less This Year?

[ShotgunDawg]

Just listened to Brandon Walker's podcast on Friday where he discussed how excited he was that Fitz would not be carrying the ball as much this Fall as he has in the past. Thing is, I'm not really sure how I feel about it.

I mean, if I made a list of the things that Fitz did best, it would go like this:

1. Run
2. Make plays
3. Lead the Offense
4. Efficiently pass the ball

So, in a year where we have enormous ceiling, why would I want Nick Fitzgerald doing less of what he does best?

It's an interesting topic for discussion, but I put together a few numbers to help us better understand what type of play calling to expect under Moorhead in an effort see if we could come to any conclusions about how much Nick will be running the football.

Somethings that I believe we must consider:

1. Trace McSorely is a more accurate passer that Fitz. He has less arm strength & is overall less talented, but I'd say he's an easy grade more accurate.
2. MSU does not have Barkley. We are really good at RB, but we don't have Barkley.
3. MSU has a significantly better OL than Penn State
4. Penn State had more proven/accomplished WRs & TEs. Not sure if more talented, but more proven.
5. MSU has a significantly better defense than Penn State. Does that equal less risk week in & week out?

Here are the numbers:



My conclusion: from a run/pass % & how often Nick runs the ball, I think our offense will look an awful lot like 2016 when we had Fred Ross. Mullen went off the deep end last year, rightfully so, because of our lack of WRs & the injuries to Gray, Mixon, & Myles. Biggest difference is that in 2016, MSU had Brandon Holloway at RB & Mullen ran Fitz in a higher % of running plays likely due to that.

To add on top of this: in 2016 & 2017, McSorely's yards per pass attempt were a full 2 yards higher than Fitz's in both years. So yeah, we'll be throwing the ball down the field more.

[BrunswickDawg]

JoMo says they get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Fitz is our biggest playmaker. Ergo, Fitz won't be running the ball much less, unless our running attack and passing attack are so strong that he doesn't have to.

[msstate7]

Bama defense is always great

Auburn thinks they have the best dline in the country

Read here a few weeks ago, LSU thinks they have one of their best defenses.

I'm really interested in how we move the ball consistently against these teams bc I'm not sure our outside guys are better than theirs. We can't turn the ball over in these 3 games, so I really hope fitz has improved passing if we plan on cutting his runs

[ShotgunDawg]

Bama defense is always great

Auburn thinks they have the best dline in the country

Read here a few weeks ago, LSU thinks they have one of their best defenses.

I'm really interested in how we move the ball consistently against these teams bc I'm not sure our outside guys are better than theirs. We can't turn the ball over in these 3 games, so I really hope fitz has improved passing if we plan on cutting his runs

This is kind of my thought as well.

I think my biggest belief is this: If Fitz's runs decrease, it will be because we are good/better at both WR & RB than we were in 2016 & 2017 & not necessarily because of Moorhead's play calling. As much as we want to blame Mullen for running Fitz, in 2016 we had Holloway at RB, which equaled Fitz running more & in 2017 we stunk at WR, due to injuries & poor play, which led to Fitz again running more.

With competent/talented players at WR & RB at the same time, which Fitz has never had, I believe those factors will lead to him running less. Not Moorhead's offensive philosophy

[Dawg2003]

Our passing game is a big question mark going into this season. Obviously due to the issues at WR and then, can Nick become a better passer? I hope so because that's apparently a big part of Moorhead's game.

[Ifyouonlyknew]

Fitz will still run plenty. It just won't be all designed runs up the middle. It will be more read options & RPO's. That will give Fitz more plays on the outside which will give him more explosive plays like 2 seasons ago. Fitz is a big time athlete so getting him on the edge more is a plus for MSU.

[Brandon Walker]

But that's not what I really said.

I said he'll still run the ball (McSorley only had 20 less carries than Fitz last year), but that he'll be used differently in the running game. Moorhead's run game is almost 100 percent based on reads and deception whereas Mullen's default with Fitzgerald was to use him as a battering ram. No read, no attempt to deceive, just bull Fitz into the LOS on third and 3 and hope for the best.

Moorhead's not going to use him like that. Fitz's runs now will be much more wide open and he'll have more room to operate because he's not going to be used as THE short-yardage running back on this team.

[BuckyIsAB****]

He will run it less but only a little less.

Mullen never ran much true RPO's. Moorhead does. We will see more of that this year than we ever have. Watch the Eagles offense in the super bowl, that is what I expect but with a more athletic QB

[BrunswickDawg]

But that's not what I really said.

I said he'll still run the ball (McSorley only had 20 less carries than Fitz last year), but that he'll be used differently in the running game. Moorhead's run game is almost 100 percent based on reads and deception whereas Mullen's default with Fitzgerald was to use him as a battering ram. No read, no attempt to deceive, just bull Fitz into the LOS on third and 3 and hope for the best.

Moorhead's not going to use him like that. Fitz's runs now will be much more wide open and he'll have more room to operate because he's not going to be used as THE short-yardage running back on this team.

Which will be better for Fitz physically and actually has a potential for him to make a bigger impact. His speed is a huge weapon. Let Kylin and Aeris take the up the middle punishment - get Fitz to the edge.

[Todd4State]

Fitz will still run plenty. It just won't be all designed runs up the middle. It will be more read options & RPO's. That will give Fitz more plays on the outside which will give him more explosive plays like 2 seasons ago. Fitz is a big time athlete so getting him on the edge more is a plus for MSU.

This is my answer as well. It's all going to be about the read and I suspect a lot of teams will try to take away Fitz running it first. It's REALLY important that our WR's and TE's make plays when the other teams take Fitz running option away because that will then open up those big runs and plays for Fitz.

[Todd4State]

He will run it less but only a little less.

Mullen never ran much true RPO's. Moorhead does. We will see more of that this year than we ever have. Watch the Eagles offense in the super bowl, that is what I expect but with a more athletic QB

Yep. That's what I'm thinking too- except I would suspect that Moorhead probably has his own different RPO's than the Eagles. Maybe I'm wrong but I get your point.

[Leroy Jenkins]

I don't know if he runs it much "less" but he will run it "differently". Less battering ram, more pressing the edges. Just what I gather from reading between the lines.

As an aside, does it look like Fitz and Optimus Klein have the exact same gait?

[BuckyIsAB****]

Yep. That's what I'm thinking too- except I would suspect that Moorhead probably has his own different RPO's than the Eagles. Maybe I'm wrong but I get your point.

I mean everyone pretty much has the same concepts, maybe a few different wrinkles. Moorhead spoke at the MS Coaches clinic this week after media days and he spoke for about a hour on RPO's.

It was pretty cool. Something that I think is pretty unique to him (wrinkle) is that QB's are reading safeties instead of LBs in his RPO's

[Hambone]

I can honestly see where Fitz is going to run it less, however will have more yards. Our RB’s will get those 3rd and short carries instead of Fitz but Fitz will have the option to tuck and run when the numbers are to his benefit. Fitz is faster than he looks and is quite the load to being down in an open field.

[Homedawg]

Fitz will still run plenty. It just won't be all designed runs up the middle. It will be more read options & RPO's. That will give Fitz more plays on the outside which will give him more explosive plays like 2 seasons ago. Fitz is a big time athlete so getting him on the edge more is a plus for MSU.

Here's the deal, people see the end result. Most don't study film, Fitz has run a lot in the past because of two things, 1 some called runs(which we will continue to do unless Jomo is stupid) 2- reads, some of which he reads right and some he reads wrong (see egg bowl broken leg). I don't see a ton difference in carries. Jomo isn't stupid he's a threat running the ball. He's gonna run. And run a good bit.
Eta, Fitz had 18 more "carries" including sacks than mcsorely did last year. So if you people
Think we aren't going to run Fitz a ton, you're nuts.

[ShotgunDawg]

But that's not what I really said.

I said he'll still run the ball (McSorley only had 20 less carries than Fitz last year), but that he'll be used differently in the running game. Moorhead's run game is almost 100 percent based on reads and deception whereas Mullen's default with Fitzgerald was to use him as a battering ram. No read, no attempt to deceive, just bull Fitz into the LOS on third and 3 and hope for the best.

Moorhead's not going to use him like that. Fitz's runs now will be much more wide open and he'll have more room to operate because he's not going to be used as THE short-yardage running back on this team.

Good point. I miss understood

[Turfdawg67]

But that's not what I really said.

I said he'll still run the ball (McSorley only had 20 less carries than Fitz last year), but that he'll be used differently in the running game. Moorhead's run game is almost 100 percent based on reads and deception whereas Mullen's default with Fitzgerald was to use him as a battering ram. No read, no attempt to deceive, just bull Fitz into the LOS on third and 3 and hope for the best.

Moorhead's not going to use him like that. Fitz's runs now will be much more wide open and he'll have more room to operate because he's not going to be used as THE short-yardage running back on this team.

What do you know? You're just a junior member on this board. ***

[Todd4State]

I mean everyone pretty much has the same concepts, maybe a few different wrinkles. Moorhead spoke at the MS Coaches clinic this week after media days and he spoke for about a hour on RPO's.

It was pretty cool. Something that I think is pretty unique to him (wrinkle) is that QB's are reading safeties instead of LBs in his RPO's

That's pretty interesting and cool. I would have loved to have heard what he had to say. Since he has a focus on throwing the ball deep, does he have RPO's attached to post and go routes? I could see RPO's helping with us throwing the ball downfield where a DB cheats up to stop and Nick and then Guidry, Whop, or Austin are running wide open downfield. Sort of like Malik Dear's TD reception in the 2016 Egg Bowl where Nick was faking the run but I noticed that we had a WR- I think it was Gray acting like he was running a hitch or a screen pass on the play and Dear just ran straight down the field wide open for a touchdown. I'm not sure that was a true RPO because I have a feeling that the play was designed to be a pass for Dear no matter what- but it was definitely RPO-ish.

[BuckyIsAB****]

That's pretty interesting and cool. I would have loved to have heard what he had to say. Since he has a focus on throwing the ball deep, does he have RPO's attached to post and go routes? I could see RPO's helping with us throwing the ball downfield where a DB cheats up to stop and Nick and then Guidry, Whop, or Austin are running wide open downfield. Sort of like Malik Dear's TD reception in the 2016 Egg Bowl where Nick was faking the run but I noticed that we had a WR- I think it was Gray acting like he was running a hitch or a screen pass on the play and Dear just ran straight down the field wide open for a touchdown. I'm not sure that was a true RPO because I have a feeling that the play was designed to be a pass for Dear no matter what- but it was definitely RPO-ish.

That play is just faking a QB sweep taking advantage of them not honoring the pass and hitting them over the top. Gray facts a key screen to invite the corner up field his eyes go inside, the safety sees Fitz knows hes a big run threat and takes a false step. OLB comes up because he has force fit. 6 points.

Pretty much a play action pass without faking it to a RB. A lot of people dont know the difference in play action pass and RPO's. RPO's are designed to get 4-7 yards and if you get more than that its great.

Not a lot of shot plays, most of what you're gonna get is a glance route (shorter post) break a tackle and you can house it. Read the BS LB if he plays run hit the glance if he stays put/ plays pass hand it off and you've got numbers.

I wont get too much into it but Moorhead reading the safeties is a lot of the same thing. Lots more nuts and bolts in there but thats the jist of it.

[War Machine Dawg]

The only significant difference in our offense this year will be the inclusion of the deep ball. We're going to be very intentional about taking shots downfield for a change. Mullen kept everything in the intermediate and short range. Moorhead is going to take shots deep. Even if we only hit a couple per game, it's going to force defenses to respect the fact that we will at least attempt to throw the ball behind them and take the top off the D. It's going to make the offense much more effective, if slightly more inconsistent, imo.