Dave bartoo's contenders

[msstate7]

Dave Bartoo
@CFBMatrix
So its a wrap

Tier I Contenders - Bama Auburn tOSU Clemson
Tier II - USC UGA FSU LSU ND Texas PSU
Tier III - (maybe get to NC but not win) OU Vols UCLA UF

11:58 PM - Jul 16, 2018

[msstate7]

So he has 15 teams with a shot at playing for the natty, and 4 of them are on our schedule. Let's hope he's wrong

[Big4Dawg]

Vols????

[starkvegasdawg]

Vols, LSU, and Florida? Do they drug test at his place of employment?

[Todd4State]

Vols, LSU, and Florida? Do they drug test at his place of employment?

He still thinks it 2003.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Lol the Vols???! The 4-8 team with no QB, tons of locker room issues, and not even a top 10 4 year average recruiting ranking? Wtf is he smoking?

Also, how can you say OU is tier 3 when they return the same staff, have more talent, and a better QB than the Vols, UF, or LSU does? They made the playoffs last year and he puts them on the same level as 2 4-8 programs with new coaches and worse recruiting profiles. What an idiot. No Washington or Oklahoma State or TCU or Michigan State or Wisconsin either... my God I'm getting mad that this complete idiot actually has a radio show

[Commercecomet24]

What's Bartoo smoking? Must be some heavy hallucinogenic stuff.

[ShotgunDawg]

I like Bartoo & find much of what he says to be valuable quality information.

However, I was thinking about this today when on Bo Bounds he said, "MSU finishing in the top 25 would be an incredible season for them under a new staff." IMO, Bartoo's formula is missing a recent track record component & a re-ranking of starting players based off logical production or draft stock.

Best I can tell, most of Bartoo's formula is (recruiting ranking + coach + coordinators + schedule (which is based on your opponents recruiting, coach, & coordinators) = record

My biggest issue is that his formula doesn't appear to account for track record, draft stock, etc.... I'm sure his formula is solid for most of college football, but it becomes irrational when MSU is being credited as being a mid-20s recruiter while players such as Sweat & Fitz are clearly high 4 to 5 star talents that were clearly underrated.

What Bartoo's formula needs is a way to re-rank upper classmen that have produced by either considering their stats or draft stock.

Again, there is a missing component in his formula because our eyes tell us that his formula is missing a logical component.

[Cooterpoot]

Just another stupid 17 trying to suck money off fans of big programs.

[SmokeyDawg]

I would imagine he actually does pretty well on the larger scale. I don't think his formula works all that well for State as a contender right now, but his formula basically boils down to the blue bloods and that's an easy bet. Recruiting average, coordinator grades, home field advantage... hard lean towards those programs. I agree with shotgun; if he re-evaluated the upper classmen on teams he would probably find the best dark horses for the playoffs. When you rate guys like Sweat, Fitz, Hoyett, Jenkins, etc as they were when signed, your formula is pretty flawed. Probably a lot less work though.

[Ari Gold]

Dave Bartoo
@CFBMatrix
So its a wrap

Tier I Contenders - Bama Auburn tOSU Clemson
Tier II - USC UGA FSU LSU ND Texas PSU
Tier III - (maybe get to NC but not win) OU Vols UCLA UF

11:58 PM - Jul 16, 2018

What a waste of segment..

[ShotgunDawg]

I would imagine he actually does pretty well on the larger scale. I don't think his formula works all that well for State as a contender right now, but his formula basically boils down to the blue bloods and that's an easy bet. Recruiting average, coordinator grades, home field advantage... hard lean towards those programs. I agree with shotgun; if he re-evaluated the upper classmen on teams he would probably find the best dark horses for the playoffs. When you rate guys like Sweat, Fitz, Hoyett, Jenkins, etc as they were when signed, your formula is pretty flawed. Probably a lot less work though.

You nailed it.

His formula does work on the whole allows him to make bets between teams like Colorado State and Wyoming.

But, yes, teams like MSU are punished in for a number of reasons: unnderrated in state players, quality QB development, and maybe most of the fact that JUCO players are objectively ranked lower, due to their potential of only giving 2 years of production. So guys like Sweat, Guidry, Abram, Cole, Rivers, etc had their recruiting ranking artificially lowered out of JUCO not because of their talent but because they were JUCO.

Your right though, doing it right would require a lot more work.

[ScoobaDawg]

It's all good. He's an idiot who is picking name teams from their history. I'm alright with getting no respect. Dan built the foundation of going to bowls every year but didn't earn us any staying power in the top echelon of the ncaa or even sec..
Now with a new unproven head coach, we are a gamble.

Besides.. The only time we have gotten any real respect preseason we sh?t the bed badly. Beat Bama. Win the sec. Then we can expect some respect.

[gravedigger]

unnderrated in state players, quality QB development, and maybe most of the fact that JUCO players are objectively ranked lower, due to their potential of only giving 2 years of production. So guys like Sweat, Guidry, Abram, Cole, Rivers, etc had their recruiting ranking artificially lowered out of JUCO not because of their talent but because they were JUCO.

Your right though, doing it right would require a lot more work.

And your comments above are why recruiting rankings are just not reliable. People always point to Bama and Ohio State as an example of recruiting class accuracy and discount the VAST majority of mid ranked teams who have legitimate players who didnt have the luxury of a ranking based on offers from Saban and Meyer.

I dont have a problem with any of the preseason predictions or the recruiting rankings because I know they are simply propaganda for large fanbases and always have been. Bartoo selecting Tennessee is just flat lazyness. LSU is the same. Anyone who watched their spring game could clearly see that Orgeron is struggling to find an identity for his offense and they also have a good amount of talent. But a recruiting ranking isnt going to go very far for them this year.

Florida will be pretty good defensively, but the offense is going to struggle getting used to Mullen's system.

Florida State and ND may very well be good, but they shouldnt either be picked over us on a neutral site.

We didnt pick a guy with automatic national credibility to lead our program. We picked the next great coach who hasnt established himself and that is perfectly fine with me.

I just dont understand how Bartoo and others can discount our team experience and the fact that we won a big bowl game with only an assistant coach and a backup qb against a very potent offense.

[Bass Chaser]

Bartoo is a stats guy who takes emotion out of his picks. He doesn't have a radio show. His succcess rate is around 80%.

A big component as others alluded was recruiting ranking. If I remember correctly he takes a 4-year average from the 247 composite.

[Prediction? Pain.]

Does anyone know this dude's criteria for assigning the coaching scores that he uses in his rankings? I glanced at some of his stuff from last year and noticed that in his predictions for Week 3, he graded LSU's OC at B+ and DC at A+, while giving both Mullen and Grantham a C+. Mullen wasn't elite as an OC, but I think he's at least a solid B on a national scale. And how would Grantham, who was coming off three years of fielding nationally elite defenses at Louisville, not have been at least an A- at DC?

[msstate7]

Bartoo is a stats guy who takes emotion out of his picks. He doesn't have a radio show. His succcess rate is around 80%.

A big component as others alluded was recruiting ranking. If I remember correctly he takes a 4-year average from the 247 composite.

Success at picking individual games? Take the spread out of the equation, and I think most everyone here could pick 80% or dang close. The vast majority of college games are easy to pick

[ShotgunDawg]

And your comments above are why recruiting rankings are just not reliable. People always point to Bama and Ohio State as an example of recruiting class accuracy and discount the VAST majority of mid ranked teams who have legitimate players who didnt have the luxury of a ranking based on offers from Saban and Meyer.

I dont have a problem with any of the preseason predictions or the recruiting rankings because I know they are simply propaganda for large fanbases and always have been. Bartoo selecting Tennessee is just flat lazyness. LSU is the same. Anyone who watched their spring game could clearly see that Orgeron is struggling to find an identity for his offense and they also have a good amount of talent. But a recruiting ranking isnt going to go very far for them this year.

Florida will be pretty good defensively, but the offense is going to struggle getting used to Mullen's system.

Florida State and ND may very well be good, but they shouldnt either be picked over us on a neutral site.

We didnt pick a guy with automatic national credibility to lead our program. We picked the next great coach who hasnt established himself and that is perfectly fine with me.

I just dont understand how Bartoo and others can discount our team experience and the fact that we won a big bowl game with only an assistant coach and a backup qb against a very potent offense.

Not to take this conversation into a different direction, but you have just outlined here is the exact problem with analytics in sports & why ultra-analytical professional organizations will never be successful in the long haul. Sure... they can win big in time frames & be fairly consistent, due to likely never making ultra dumb decisions because the analytics in many ways works as a safety net that prevents ultra-dumb decisions.

However, you cannot replace the "eye test" scouting & the best professional/college organizations will ALWAYS be the organizations that can best blend the best attributes of both scouting & analytics. When an organization gets too far to one side, they begin making dumb decisions.

[ShotgunDawg]

Bartoo is a stats guy who takes emotion out of his picks. He doesn't have a radio show. His succcess rate is around 80%.

A big component as others alluded was recruiting ranking. If I remember correctly he takes a 4-year average from the 247 composite.

Bartoo does a great job & his method works for a vast majority of college football. MSU is a curveball due though due to the number of JUCO players typically on the team & rawness of the typical high school player coming out of the state. We've outline those issues in this thread.

Eye test matters & it always will.

[ShotgunDawg]

Success at picking individual games? Take the spread out of the equation, and I think most everyone here could pick 80% or dang close. The vast majority of college games are easy to pick

Probably, but Bartoo's method does allow him to bet on games in which he does not have personal knowledge of the teams.

Sure, we could all pick 80% of the games that SEC teams play, but his "model" comes in handy when betting Western Kentucky vs Memphis. How many of us could make a logical bet on that game? I know I couldn't because I don't have personal knowledge of either of those teams. Bartoo can because his "model" tells him who to bet on.