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Pain is our Engie without the baggage. Thanks for your contributions
Walk like the King or walk like you don't care who the King is
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Given the way we are usually underrated by preseason polls, this is a very good thing.
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Originally Posted by
IMissJack
Given the way we are usually underrated by preseason polls, this is a very good thing.
So when they say six wins they really means eight so logical thinking eight wins really mean ten.
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Originally Posted by
Prediction? Pain.
It looks like the "returning production" rankings included in the S&P+ rankings are modified from raw returning production numbers. About two weeks ago, Bill C. published his returning production rankings. Here they are:
https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...ers-experience
We're 8th nationally in those rankings. Bama is 103rd. (Y'all should read his explanation of the returning production stats. Among other things, he notes that returning experience in the secondary has the highest correlation to team improvement from year to year.)
In the intro to the S&P + rankings, he says that "[f]or returning production, [he] appl[ied] projected changes (based on each team's returning offensive and defensive production, which are on different scales) to last year's S&P+ averages. The projection based on returning production accounts for a little more than 50 percent." I'm not sure I completely follow, but maybe he took the raw returning production rank and then somehow adjusted it for the quality of the team to account for returning production on bad teams? That's the best I can make of it. Otherwise, it's just a massive typo, which would surprise me. But who knows.
Bill C. has acknowledged our 2018 potential since the end of the season. In the article with the new S&P+ rankings, he gives a link to a story he wrote in November about our hiring of Joe Moorhead. It's worth a look. Here's an excerpt:
That's great work right there, Pain! Appreciate you posting that!
Rep Given!
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Originally Posted by
dawgday166
Trying to understand then Bammer at #4. They losing their whole D and Ridley. Probably both backs too.
Bama starters lost on O: Ridley (Foster/Sims) and Bozeman... (Scarbrough) left early... Each position group will be better, IMO....
On Defense, the 2ndary was completely gutted... Only 1 guy back with meaningful experience... The front 7 will be similar to recent years...
That being said, I've no idea how they computed "production" regarding Bammer.... Ridley and our secondary "produced" a lot, I thought....
"It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."
No.
Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17
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Originally Posted by
TUSK
Bama starters lost on O: Ridley (Foster/Sims) and Bozeman... (Scarbrough) left early... Each position group will be better, IMO....
On Defense, the 2ndary was completely gutted... Only 1 guy back with meaningful experience... The front 7 will be similar to recent years...
That being said, I've no idea how they computed "production" regarding Bammer.... Ridley and our secondary "produced" a lot, I thought....
Congrats on "Hanging Another Banner"!! Those were some very exceptional refs calling that game *
I knew y'all were losing a lot next year. Time to "reload".
Regarding next year. The link my post is about is being setup in advance IMO to show Bama should be in CFP at beginning of year, and justify that #2 ranking. Whoever did that one is either skewing it to look so, or is a complete idiot. The one that Pain linked to tho ... that is way more accurate IMO.
Also IMO ... your Oline still shouldn't be as good as ours. Wasn't this year and shouldn't be next either. Front 7 ... that may be a push, athough our D line should be every bit as nasty as yours. Of course all of this is somewhat dependent on coaching staff transition.
No team in country can lose as much as y'all do and even make CFP. Howevah .... y'all are Bama so ...
That does not matter. It's all orchestrated. Who pulls the strings ... I have no clue. But I do know this ... Bama will be in final of CFP. Even if somehow we play well and are allowed to win in TTown, at a minimum Bama will receive another at large berth and will be in title game. And most likely win it. I also know it will be an ultra-exciting game either way.
It's very good entertainment *
Last edited by dawgday166; 02-12-2018 at 07:37 PM.
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Originally Posted by
dawgday166
Congrats on "Hanging Another Banner"!! Those were some very exceptional refs calling that game *
I knew y'all were losing a lot next year. Time to "reload".
Regarding next year. The link my post is about is being setup in advance IMO to show Bama should be in CFP at beginning of year, and justify that #2 ranking. Whoever did that one is either skewing it to look so, or is a complete idiot. The one that Pain linked to tho ... that is way more accurate IMO.
Also IMO ... your Oline still shouldn't be as good as ours. Wasn't this year and shouldn't be next either. Front 7 ... that may be a push, athough our D line should be every bit as nasty as yours. Of course all of this is somewhat dependent on coaching staff transition.
No team in country can lose as much as y'all do and even make CFP. Howevah .... y'all are Bama so ...
That does not matter. It's all orchestrated. Who pulls the strings ... I have no clue. But I do know this ... Bama will be in final of CFP. Even if somehow we play well and are allowed to win in TTown, at a minimum Bama will receive another at large berth and will be in title game. And most likely win it. I also know it will be an ultra-exciting game either way.
It's very good entertainment *
This essay will serve your REC application well.
"It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."
No.
Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17
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Originally Posted by
TUSK
This essay will serve your REC application well.
Lol ... don't know how I forgot about the REC. They strong with the darkside. **
Now that I really "get it", I'll record our game with y'all next year. If we get blown out ... won't watch. If we lose a close one ... may watch while locking up all loose, hard objects I could break my TV with. If we win ... will watch knowing y'all will still win the Natty.
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Originally Posted by
dawgday166
Lol ... don't know how I forgot about the REC. They strong with the darkside. **
Now that I really "get it", I'll record our game with y'all next year. If we get blown out ... won't watch. If we lose a close one ... may watch while locking up all loose, hard objects I could break my TV with. If we win ... will watch knowing y'all will still win the Natty.
solid. +1
"It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."
No.
Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17
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Member
Im not gonna pretend like I totally understand what it is saying, buts not a ranking, I can tell you that.
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Originally Posted by
Commercecomet24
That's great work right there, Pain! Appreciate you posting that!
Rep Given!
Originally Posted by
Coach34
Pain is our Engie without the baggage. Thanks for your contributions
Thanks, y'all. I'm just glad to have an outlet for my dorky tendency to research and over-analyze everything.
(Though I guess there's that "job" thing that I've got that I could be doing instead . . . .)
Some bonus nerdiness:
When Bill C. started doing his returning production rankings in 2015, he did a retroactive test-run to see what, if anything, the 2013 season's returning production would've predicted about how 2014 played out. (Here's the original "returning production" article he posted back then.) His test-run demonstrated that of the 21 teams with the most returning production in 2014, 17 improved from the previous year.
No. 10 in those rankings? Mississippi State.
Since 2014, our returning production hasn't ranked higher than 60th. (60th in 2015, 110th in 2016, and 63rd in 2017.)
This year we're 8th.
Skadoosh, y'all. Skadoosh.
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2014 proved...?just win baby?.......and everything else takes care of itself. But you have to beat Bama and om in the same year......
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I'm just impress they don't have Auburn as the Preseason Champs as usual.
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