How does Bama not get in?

[msstate7]

Bama would likely be favored over every team in the country on a neutral field, but I think the committee will go with the conference champs. If it’s debatable at all, I think the conference championship is the tie breaker for them. To me, that’s giving too much credence to the conference championships though. It’s a “double bump” because Ohio State would not be considered without that win, so the conference championship gets them into the conversation and also becomes the “tie-breaker”? That’s too big of a bump for a 2-loss team with embarrassingly bad losses.

If you replace Oklahoma in Ohio st schedule with any OOC win, there is not even a discussion. If Ohio State gets left out, I would not schedule any team capable of beating me if I were a playoff contender

[TUSK]

Wouldn?t care if they were as good as the 72 Dolphins. 3rd place conference teams don?t belong in 4 team national playoffs. They didn?t get it done at home. Sorry, Bama.

Didn’t get what done “at home “?...

That’s confusing...

[Bully13]

If you replace Oklahoma in Ohio st schedule with any OOC win, there is not even a discussion. If Ohio State gets left out, I would not schedule any team capable of beating me if I were a playoff contender

Yep. It would discourage early season Intersting OOC matchups that would be bad for the game.

[chef dixon]

Bama would likely be favored over every team in the country on a neutral field, but I think the committee will go with the conference champs. If it?s debatable at all, I think the conference championship is the tie breaker for them. To me, that?s giving too much credence to the conference championships though. It?s a ?double bump? because Ohio State would not be considered without that win, so the conference championship gets them into the conversation and also becomes the ?tie-breaker?? That?s too big of a bump for a 2-loss team with embarrassingly bad losses.

I would be surprised if Bama was favored over Clemson on a neutral field right now.

[TUSK]

Bama can't beat any of the other three teams in the cfp. No smash mouth running game, QB can't win the game, and D is soft in the middle. I'm going to be surprised if they take bama over osu although osu is a worse team. Auburn is the 4th best team but they lost their chance. In the end I'm guessing mercer will keep bama out and probably should. Wth is bama doing playing mercer?

There’s a whole lotta “wrong” in that post.

[dawgday166]

There’s a whole lotta “wrong” in that post.

What's "wrong" in that post? Looks pretty accurate to me ... although Bama could beat one of these teams if one of them just doesn't show up to play that day.

You ain't got that extra dark shade of crimson glasses on today do you? ***

[Ari Gold]

Maybe it’s my west coast bias. But if the committee goes conferecne champs why not USC.
PAC 12 better top to bottom than Big 10
USCw conference champ .
Beat Stanford twice
Loses were at ND . (Compared to at Iowa.) And @ pirateU

And if USC played OSU next weekend . Give me fighting OJ’s

[dawgday166]

Maybe it?s my west coast bias. But if the committee goes conferecne champs why not USC.
PAC 12 better top to bottom than Big 10
USCw conference champ .
Beat Stanford twice
Loses were at ND . (Compared to at Iowa.) And @ pirateU

And if USC played OSU next weekend . Give me fighting OJ?s

I thought about that too. That blowout to ND bothers me but it's better than Iowa. Both losses were on road to top 25 teams too.

[ckDOG]

Didn?t get what done ?at home ??...

That?s confusing...

Home = conf

[parabrave]

There are a bunch of terrific opinions in this thread.

I’d like to know if there is anyone that truly believes they’d bet against Bammer in the CFP...

Well Tusk DABO gets to beat his future employer again

[TUSK]

What's "wrong" in that post?*

Bama can't beat any of the other three teams in the cfp.
No smash mouth running game.
QB can't win the game.
D is soft in the middle.

[dawgday166]

Bama can't beat any of the other three teams in the cfp.
No smash mouth running game.
QB can't win the game.
D is soft in the middle.

I'll buy Bama can win. They shouldn't win against these teams but they can. Odds improve if linebackers come back.

QB can't win by himself is the way I read OP ... so I tend to agree with that.
We scored 3 rushing TDs against you with 1 4* Olineman. You're soft in middle right now for a Bama team, minus all LBs.
I agree that against good competition, you don't have a smash mouth running game. I think your backs are good, not great and this is worst Oline under Saban other than maybe '08.

Load the box, take away Ridley, and you're in trouble. It helps to have LBs that can run with Hurts, like AU has. Hurts couldn't turn the corner on them.

Getting LBs back will help you a good bit, but Dline and Secondary are below Bama's usual too.

[MetEdDawg]

Only reason this was even partially a discussion was because of one person. Francois. If he doesn’t get hurt, FSU probably finishes the season in the Top 15-20 and Bama has that as the nice out of conference win.

Additionally, I’m shocked the fact Fitz getting hurt hasn’t been mentioned more during this. Without him getting hurt we are Top 12 right now. And a good looking win for Bama. Either way, Bama is the better team and got in like they should have.

[TUSK]

I'll buy Bama can win. They shouldn't win against these teams but they can. Odds improve if linebackers come back.

QB can't win by himself is the way I read OP ... so I tend to agree with that.
We scored 3 rushing TDs against you with 1 4* Olineman. You're soft in middle right now for a Bama team, minus all LBs.
I agree that against good competition, you don't have a smash mouth running game. I think your backs are good, not great and this is worst Oline under Saban other than maybe '08.

Load the box, take away Ridley, and you're in trouble. It helps to have LBs that can run with Hurts, like AU has. Hurts couldn't run the corner on them.

Getting LBs back will help you a good bit, but Dline and Secondary are below Bama's usual too.

I agree that sans 5 LBs Alabama was not up to "normal" bama standards...

RE: "smash mouth" football, we may have different definitions... I think Bammer ran the the ball pretty well against the tougher competition...

[TUSK]

Only reason this was even partially a discussion was because of one person. Francois. If he doesn’t get hurt, FSU probably finishes the season in the Top 15-20 and Bama has that as the nice out of conference win.

Additionally, I’m shocked the fact Fitz getting hurt hasn’t been mentioned more during this. Without him getting hurt we are Top 12 right now. And a good looking win for Bama. Either way, Bama is the better team and got in like they should have.

yup, great points.... also, LSU collapsing vs Troy hurt Bammer's SOS, too....

[DownwardDawg]

Only reason this was even partially a discussion was because of one person. Francois. If he doesn’t get hurt, FSU probably finishes the season in the Top 15-20 and Bama has that as the nice out of conference win.

Additionally, I’m shocked the fact Fitz getting hurt hasn’t been mentioned more during this. Without him getting hurt we are Top 12 right now. And a good looking win for Bama. Either way, Bama is the better team and got in like they should have.

This guy gets it. With Fitz healthy, Bama gets to claim a top 10-12 road win. Bama knocked FSU QB out so that hurt badly. And yes, a fluke upset by Troy against LSU is killing Bama too.
With all that said, if I were forced to bet money on Bama vs Ohio St head to head, I wouldn't blink before laying it all on Bama.

[dawgday166]

116 against LSU
202 against MSU
208 against AU

Not bad on last 2 except ... Hurts had 40 against us and 82 against AU. I don't include QB in smash mouth rushing evaluation. A lot of QB can be scrambling. Going back to what I'm saying ... lining up and running it right down someone's throat, Bama can't do that this year as in years past.

[TUSK]

116 against LSU
202 against MSU
208 against AU

Not bad on last 2 except ... Hurts had 40 against us and 82 against AU. I don't include QB in smash mouth rushing evaluation. A lot of QB can be scrambling. Going back to what I'm saying ... lining up and running it right down someone's throat, Bama can't do that this year as in years past.

Yep, I'd agree that Bammer is not nearly as dominant on OL as in years past...

[Dawgs87]

This guy gets it. With Fitz healthy, Bama gets to claim a top 10-12 road win. Bama knocked FSU QB out so that hurt badly. And yes, a fluke upset by Troy against LSU is killing Bama too.
With all that said, if I were forced to bet money on Bama vs Ohio St head to head, I wouldn't blink before laying it all on Bama.

My point wasn't whether they deserved to get in or not. I clearly stated that they did. That wasn't even a question. My point was regardless of whether they can claim a top 10-12 win, regardless of whether or not Francois got hurt, that this years version of Bama is not a typical Nick Saban Bama. I personally don't expect them to win and that is a first for me. Sure they might be favored on a neutral site, but that doesn't impact my personal expectations. I've seen every Bama game this year and for the past several years and I just don't think they are as good as they have been in the past (Spoiler alert: I moved to alabama after i graduated and have lived here since). I would honestly be shocked if they win out, but i guess it's possible. Hard to bet against Saban, but if I was going to do it, I feel 100% confident doing it this year. Also, I would be in the Tua camp. I think JH has great composure and doesn't make many mistakes, but he doesn't make a big enough impact.

[coachnorm]

I believe that there were good teams in D1 but not one great team in 2017. Saying that, I believe that it was ripe for controversy for the selection committee. I believe that Alabama saved their butts by scheduling Florida State a top four team at the time. Sooner or later the committee is going to crucify teams for soft ooc games. This will force stiffer competition which will cause a weeding out thru wins and losses in a 12 game window. Some teams have great competition in sections of their schedule but not a 12 game window. Also, I believe that it should be mandated that a final four team play 6 home 6 away schedules. If a team does not go on the road to face a hostile crowd, that team should be disqualified from the final four. Do what I suggest and the committee will be less influential.