Rosebowl, OM, and NCAA case

[msstate7]

What is rosebowl predicting for sanctions as this is apparently coming to an end?

[Mjoelner34]

I know that his first broad prediction was 'not enough' from our viewpoint and 'too much' from theirs. I'm pretty sure he has leaned more and more toward more severe as this has gone on but I don't remember any specific numbers relating to bowl bans or scholly predictions.

[yjnkdawg]

What is rosebowl predicting for sanctions as this is apparently coming to an end?

Why would Steve make a prediction now? Steve has not made any predictions on GP that I'm aware of (and if he did it would be Premium and I would not divulge that) other than what he has said on the Boneyard Radio Show. Steve did say something not long ago like that those who say they have sources that know what the sanctions will be, don't know. Some "speculate" that OM will receive the letter on Friday November 10th. Friday and a Holiday weekend. It would be perfect timing. I can't believe any OM boosters, or OM media would know anything about the sanction severity other than a few BIG Boosters in the inner circle, maybe? Lee Tyner and the OM Administration are smarter than that.

[Mimi's Babies]

Why would Steve make a prediction now? Steve has not made any predictions on GP that I'm aware of (and if he did it would be Premium and I would not divulge that) other than what he has said on the Boneyard Radio Show. Steve did say something not long ago like that those who say they have sources that know what the sanctions will be, don't know. Some "speculate" that OM will receive the letter on Friday October 10th. Friday and a Holiday weekend. It would be perfect timing. I can't believe any OM boosters, or OM media would know anything about the sanction severity other than a few BIG Boosters in the inner circle, maybe? Lee Tyner and the OM Administration are smarter than that.

There are several in the General Counsel's office and the OM Administration that should be looking for other positions.... other than their current jobs...

[Spiderman]

What is rosebowl predicting for sanctions as this is apparently coming to an end?

Buddy of mine talked to him at a signing. Rosy said that he expected that IF , again IF, they leave the charges as are without any changes, 30 and another year, vacated wins in the games the ACT players played in, and show causes for all named.

In my opinion, 30 schollys lost will be devastating. Especially if it's 30 for 3 years.

If I figured it right they will lose 67 player's eligibility over the next 3 years with only 45 schollys to replace them. And those 45 won't be blue chips.

So in 2020 they could theoretically only have 63 scholarship players. With a 25 limit and attrition, if would be awhile to get back to 85.

[yjnkdawg]

There are several in the General Counsel's office and the OM Administration that should be looking for other positions.... other than their current jobs...

I agree Mimi. The higer ups are not happy with the way this all played out. but unless OM's legal counsel has completely tanked and drowned, then these OM sources like Message Board Administrators, Media, Boosters who give to their foundation (maybe not excluding some in their inner circle) don't know anymore than we do on what is coming down. It is what you call speculaion or to make you think they are in the know.

[Jarius]

He said that he would “bet the farm” on an additional year of a bowl ban about 3 weeks ago on his board.

[Mimi's Babies]

I agree Mimi. The higer ups are not happy with the way this all played out. but unless OM's legal counsel has completely tanked and drowned, then these OM sources like Message Board Administrators, Media, Boosters who give to their foundation (maybe not excluding some in their inner circle) don't know anymore than we do on what is coming down. It is what you call speculaion or to make you think they are in the know.

The General counsel and others in that office work for..... The Attorney General and NOT the University... They take their marching orders from none other than JIM HOOD... so remember that when you go to VOTE!!!!

[Political Hack]

If y'all don't think they have been explained what the range of possible penelties could be by this point, you're kidding yourself. They have to know whether the NCAA has decided to enforce the penalty structure or if it's going to scrap it and start over. Personally, I think they should scrap it. It's over the top stupid. Considering that relatively minor improper benefits can trigger multiple level one penalties is absurd. They either have to scrap that structure, or they'll find themselves out of the business of policing the power five conferences within a few short years. I think it's inevitable at this point, but these types of cases are going to speed it up.

I said a long time ago Ole Miss was going to crumble and then the NCAA would die a few years later. I still think that's going to happen.

[preachermatt83]

I say 32 over 4. One additional year bowl ban. Anything more is gravy. Anything g less is disappointing. Those sanctions are literally crippling

[Reason2succeed]

If y'all don't think they have been explained what the range of possible penelties could be by this point, you're kidding yourself. They have to know whether the NCAA has decided to enforce the penalty structure or if it's going to scrap it and start over. Personally, I think they should scrap it. It's over the top stupid. Considering that relatively minor improper benefits can trigger multiple level one penalties is absurd. They either have to scrap that structure, or they'll find themselves out of the business of policing the power five conferences within a few short years. I think it's inevitable at this point, but these types of cases are going to speed it up.

I said a long time ago Ole Miss was going to crumble and then the NCAA would die a few years later. I still think that's going to happen.

Do you say that about all rules or laws? OM knew the penalty matrix like everyone else and CHOSE to continue blatantly cheating. If the NCAA scraps the matrix just because those asshats decided to flip the cops the bird and speed off THEN the NCAA would be in peril. What would be the point of a governing agency if they lack the power to govern? As Saban said it would be the wild Wild West.

And don’t forget who the allegations actually came from. Bama, Georgia, Nebraska, etc will not be pleased if OM is allowed to steal players without paying a significant cost. OM will burn. If not, kiss the NCAA goodbye. Let the FBI take over.

[Mimi's Babies]

Do you say that about all rules or laws? OM knew the penalty matrix like everyone else and CHOSE to continue blatantly cheating. If the NCAA scraps the matrix just because those asshats decided to flip the cops the bird and speed off THEN the NCAA would be in peril. What would be the point of a governing agency if they lack the power to govern? As Saban said it would be the wild Wild West.

And don’t forget who the allegations actually came from. Bama, Georgia, Nebraska, etc will not be pleased if OM is allowed to steal players without paying a significant cost. OM will burn. If not, kiss the NCAA goodbye. Let the FBI take over.

The FBI does need to take over and invrstigate OM and the madam.

[Schultzy]

The level of corruption in college sports has far exceeded the NCAA’s ability to police it, and this has been the case for a long time.

5 yrs. north of 30 - buncha show causes at least one lengthy - two more bowls...is warranted. But whether the NCAA gets it right or not is totally unpredictable and depends on the integrity of the people on the COI.

[Political Hack]

Do you say that about all rules or laws? OM knew the penalty matrix like everyone else and CHOSE to continue blatantly cheating. If the NCAA scraps the matrix just because those asshats decided to flip the cops the bird and speed off THEN the NCAA would be in peril. What would be the point of a governing agency if they lack the power to govern? As Saban said it would be the wild Wild West.

And don’t forget who the allegations actually came from. Bama, Georgia, Nebraska, etc will not be pleased if OM is allowed to steal players without paying a significant cost. OM will burn. If not, kiss the NCAA goodbye. Let the FBI take over.

Oh, I agree it's a no win situation for the NCAA. They're fate is sealed. They'll be out of the P5 business relatively soon (next decade or so at most). However, I still hold that the penalty matrix is over the top. If the NCAA keeps to it, Ole Miss will be on probabtion until 2099 or something. The way they've compounded the penalties doesn't work and can't be enforced that way. They'll relax them. They have to.

And yeah, I don't always wear my seat belt and I drive over the speed limit.

[BrunswickDawg]

Oh, I agree it's a no win situation for the NCAA. They're fate is sealed. They'll be out of the P5 business relatively soon (next decade or so at most). However, I still hold that the penalty matrix is over the top. If the NCAA keeps to it, Ole Miss will be on probabtion until 2099 or something. The way they've compounded the penalties doesn't work and can't be enforced that way. They'll relax them. They have to.

And yeah, I don't always wear my seat belt and I drive over the speed limit.

I don't think the NCAA will go away. People have been predicting that for years. Remember back in the '80s when the CFA schools (SEC, ACC, Southwest, Big 8, WAC, ND, WV, PSU and Pitt - led by UGA and Oklahoma broke away to negotiate a TV package because the NCAA was limiting TV packages and the amount of games broadcast. That was going to kill the NCAA then. The NCAA and the conferences realized they were missing a huge revenue stream and adapted. What will happen is the P5 will break back into it's own division again and have it's own subset of rules, and continue to evolve.

[Liverpooldawg]

If y'all don't think they have been explained what the range of possible penelties could be by this point, you're kidding yourself. They have to know whether the NCAA has decided to enforce the penalty structure or if it's going to scrap it and start over. Personally, I think they should scrap it. It's over the top stupid. Considering that relatively minor improper benefits can trigger multiple level one penalties is absurd. They either have to scrap that structure, or they'll find themselves out of the business of policing the power five conferences within a few short years. I think it's inevitable at this point, but these types of cases are going to speed it up.

I said a long time ago Ole Miss was going to crumble and then the NCAA would die a few years later. I still think that's going to happen.

They don’t have to scrap the matrix, what they have to do is actually enforce it to the letter and the memebership has to back them in doing so. If that happens it won’t take long to really clean things up. As has been said many times already, this is the first real test case. I️ say if they DON’T enforce it to the letter it’s the beginning of the end of the NCAA.

[Jack Lambert]

Oh, I agree it's a no win situation for the NCAA. They're fate is sealed. They'll be out of the P5 business relatively soon (next decade or so at most). However, I still hold that the penalty matrix is over the top. If the NCAA keeps to it, Ole Miss will be on probabtion until 2099 or something. The way they've compounded the penalties doesn't work and can't be enforced that way. They'll relax them. They have to.

And yeah, I don't always wear my seat belt and I drive over the speed limit.

I think the NCAA should do and only do what Teddy Roosevelt set it up to do. To protect football players from getting abused and hurt.

[Political Hack]

I don't think the NCAA will go away. People have been predicting that for years. Remember back in the '80s when the CFA schools (SEC, ACC, Southwest, Big 8, WAC, ND, WV, PSU and Pitt - led by UGA and Oklahoma broke away to negotiate a TV package because the NCAA was limiting TV packages and the amount of games broadcast. That was going to kill the NCAA then. The NCAA and the conferences realized they were missing a huge revenue stream and adapted. What will happen is the P5 will break back into it's own division again and have it's own subset of rules, and continue to evolve.

Look at athletic budgets in the 80's versus now. It's a matter of time and money will drive the change. As conference expansion happens, the need for the NCAA to set common rules will deminish and the P5 will govern themselves.

There's several avenues for this to happen, but the first will be when some high profile recruit figures out that 247 and Scout and Rivals and Fox and CBS and ESPN are all making money off of them without proper compensation. Ed O'Bannon (sp?) set the precedent. Amateur athletes will eventually sue the recruiting sites and/or the NCAA, which will be followed by several lawsuits against the NCAA (once they establish that it's a monopoly, the only legit avenue to the NFL, and prohibits free market values it's over). You can't have coaches, administrators, conferences, media and everyone making this kind of money while the performers (KIDS) are taking all the health risks.

[Jarius]

They don’t have to scrap the matrix, what they have to do is actually enforce it to the letter and the memebership has to back them in doing so. If that happens it won’t take long to really clean things up. As has been said many times already, this is the first real test case. I️ say if they DON’T enforce it to the letter it’s the beginning of the end of the NCAA.

They are not going to enforce it to the letter. They did not enforce it to the letter with ULL. They aren't going to here. It will be a multi year bowl ban with 25-30 scholarships and OM will be down for at least half a decade because of it. That's long enough to move up a tier in the SEC if we take advantage of the in state recruiting advantage it will create.

[sandwolf]

Oh, I agree it's a no win situation for the NCAA. They're fate is sealed. They'll be out of the P5 business relatively soon (next decade or so at most). However, I still hold that the penalty matrix is over the top. If the NCAA keeps to it, Ole Miss will be on probabtion until 2099 or something. The way they've compounded the penalties doesn't work and can't be enforced that way. They'll relax them. They have to.

And yeah, I don't always wear my seat belt and I drive over the speed limit.

They definitely aren't going to apply penalties from the matrix for each individual violation.....like you said, that doesn't work. But if you look at OM's response to the NOA in the third paragraph at the bottom of the first page, you will see this statement:

Based upon these factors, the proper classification for this case is Level I - Standard.

So based on that, the case as a whole is assigned a classification, and then you go to the matrix to find the appropriate penalties. So for a Level I - Aggravated case, a football program can be hit with 21-42 lost scholarships, 2-4 year bowl ban, 6-10 years of probation, etc.....those are the worst sanctions that can be issued based on the penalty matrix, and while those sanctions are really bad and would cripple a program for a long time, they are definitely enforceable.

And before anybody says that they didn't approach the matrix correctly, their response wasn't put together by some water carrying asshole from OM.....it was put together by Lightfoot, Franklin & White which is a premier firm in NCAA Compliance cases and represents programs from all over the country, so it is pretty safe to assume that they took the right approach.