ESPN FPI Gives MSU at 57.1% Chance Of Beating A&M

[tireddawg]

No problem, Mrs. Shotgun.

Ha!

[Hasu Dackds]

Bill Connelly predicts a 67% chance of us winning. His S&P numbers show us as 10.1 points better than them. Which means it'll come down to the wire considering the location. Some people say 3 points for the home team. In the SEC, especially at these huge stadiums, I say closer to 10-14.

[ShotgunDawg]

Bill Connelly predicts a 67% chance of us winning. His S&P numbers show us as 10.1 points better than them. Which means it'll come down to the wire considering the location. Some people say 3 points for the home team. In the SEC, especially at these huge stadiums, I say closer to 10-14.

Maybe. We’ll see.

A&M is a 100K seat stadium, but the slope of the stands make it where the fans aren’t right on top of you.

It’s a great environment, but not near as intimidating as LSU, Auburn, UGA, Bama, Florida, or TN

It’s a little more like Mizzou w more seats. Those Big 12 stadiums were built differently.

[IMissJack]

It's a bigger FL type crowd, with organized yells...

[BuckyIsAB****]

The last time at Kyle Field our Diaz defense let us down: Hawk Tackling. We missed tackles all over the damn place.

This defense is way better then Manny's 2010 unit. That 2015 group was lacking in a lot of areas. We contain Mond and Kirk and we have a legit shot of pulling this off.

And Wimberly is straight up jackass.

Idk man that 2010 defense was nasty. Arkansas and Bama were the only teams that really scored, Bama bc its bama at bama and Arkansas was loaded with Petrino. I think we have a good group on D and A&M wont score much on us unless we help them, or we just cant stop Kirk

[BiscuitEater]

He obviously missing some fairly large variables to his algorithm, unless he's smarter than ESPN

EVERYBODY is smarter than ESPN!

[BB30]

My guess is that the FPI is stronger at this point in the season than it was in week 4. A&M is clearly not UGA

If we can keep Kirk from beating us & Mond from breaking long runs, we win the football game.

The key to winning this game is not beating ourselves on offense & making A&M drive the field.

My guess is that most people's bad feeling about this game has more do with how we played at Auburn & UGA than it does with how we match up against A&M. A&M is nowhere near as talented or as good as Auburn or UGA

Ha ha I remember you saying the same thing about how we matched up against UGA... I think we can win the ball game but it will be a tough test. They hung in there at home against Bama and we haven't played well on the road. Honestly, just depends on which team shows up Saturday. Nothing would surprise me in this one.

[TrapGame]

Ha ha I remember you saying the same thing about how we matched up against UGA... I think we can win the ball game but it will be a tough test. They hung in there at home against Bama and we haven't played well on the road. Honestly, just depends on which team shows up Saturday. Nothing would surprise me in this one.

Yeah, we played two horrible road games. It's time to turn it around. This team has been on the the end of two lopsided loses in other teams' stadiums. It's time to gird the loins, get mad and go punch a male cheerleader in the mouth at Kyle field.

No blow out loss is acceptable this time.

[Anonymous]

Should put it in perspective that 57% FPI is a complete toss up.

Not until ~70% is it actually considered a real edge.

[SheltonChoked]

We play play like crap in Kyle Field. I ain't confident.

The crowd at Kyle will be very different this visit. Especially if the Astros have played well in LA. Most of the crowd will be more interested in what's going on in Houston vs Kyle.

[Leroy Jenkins]

FPI gave us 55% chance to beat UGA.

[TrapGame]

The crowd at Kyle will be very different this visit. Especially if the Astros have played well in LA. Most of the crowd will be more interested in what's going on in Houston vs Kyle.

Well, that's interesting.

[ShotgunDawg]

FPI gave us 55% chance to beat UGA.

So, it's completely invalid because no one really knew how good UGA was at that point?

I think UGA was underrated at that point because they only beat a Notre Dame by 1 point & Notre Dame won 4 games in 2016.

I would think they formula would be significantly stronger now that the season has played out.

[ShotgunDawg]

Ha ha I remember you saying the same thing about how we matched up against UGA...

Yup. I had no clue how good UGA was. Neither did anyone else.

[Turfdawg67]

Watched last year’s game with TAMU and... wow did we dominate for 3/4 of that game. A couple missed plays and we would’ve been up by 21 at the half. Never should’ve been that close at the end, thanks Sirmon. And they were ranked like 5th in the country! Why doesn’t Mullen get credit for these games??

I hate to predict, cause I think I’m a jinx, but I think State rolls on Saturday night!

[BuckyIsAB****]

I think we very well could win the game, but we arent going to Kyle Field and ''rolling'' or blowing out A&M it just aint gonna happen. Bama couldnt do it and neither are we. Its gonna take us playing very well or A&M playing like shit. I think we have a shot but some of us need to temper our expectations

[Schultzy]

I’m the one who provides the FPI ratings for ESPN. I basically just look at the Vegas lines and assign some random % to each game.

You can talk ESPN execs into any random gambit if you can get their ear; it takes me about 15 minutes a week.

[TrapGame]

I think we very well could win the game, but we arent going to Kyle Field and ''rolling'' or blowing out A&M it just aint gonna happen. Bama couldnt do it and neither are we. Its gonna take us playing very well or A&M playing like shit. I think we have a shot but some of us need to temper our expectations

True B-Man, but will we get the same level of juice A&M gave Bama? If we do then I don't think we win but if they have a little rust from the bye week we could go in and force them to do Grantham's favorite thing: play from behind.

[MarketingBully]

I think we very well could win the game, but we arent going to Kyle Field and ''rolling'' or blowing out A&M it just aint gonna happen. Bama couldnt do it and neither are we. Its gonna take us playing very well or A&M playing like shit. I think we have a shot but some of us need to temper our expectations

Bama didn’t give a shit about that game and Hurts missed two wide open receivers that were sure fire touchdowns. I love how A&M gets so much hype from a game in which anyone would have hung with Bama (they played their D- game). Remember, that was the infamous “Rat Poison” quote from Saban in the post game press conference. Alabama played like absolute dog shit and A&M still was down two touchdowns for most of the game. It really wasn’t in doubt. A&M won by 7 over an ass South Carolina team and took a shitty Arkansas team to overtime to beat them. Oh but it’s because we lost to Auburn and UGA so convincingly is why people think we suck. Games in which we played like shit and Auburn and UGA played the best games of their year. Why couldn’t we of brought our A game to those games? That’s what sucks because that is what is shaping perception of where we are now. We would have to beat Bama too to even change it because of a couple of blow outs.

[MarketingBully]

True B-Man, but will we get the same level of juice A&M gave Bama? If we do then I don't think we win but if they have a little rust from the bye week we could go in and force them to do Grantham's favorite thing: play from behind.

Alabama gave too little of a shit in that game. It didn’t matter what kind of “juice” A&M had. A&M is not a good team.