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Thread: Thru 7 Games - 2014 v 2017

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    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Thru 7 Games - 2014 v 2017

    Ok - as everyone knows, I'm the resident Fitz defender. As Dawg61 will point out, I get my back up and jump to his defense at the least little thing. Something has bugged me the last 2 weeks on Twitter and I think it needed a little deeper look. The constant harping on drops vs. "inaccurate throws".

    After 2 bad performances against UGA and AU, we all know that Fitz still needs time to develop and isn't where many would like him to be. However, this turned into some real twitter rage after BYU that continued after the Kentucky game. In particular, I'm going to call out Brett Hudson at the Commercial Dispatch for feeding this by breaking down every incompletion on twitter the last 2 weeks and judging if it is the receivers fault or Fitz's fault. We have 2 blowout wins in a row, and (as usual) someone covering our team are spending their time feeding a narrative that serves only to stir the pot.

    So, I decide to compare 2017 to 2014 through 7 games. I used 2014 since it was Dak's Junior year and Fitz is a Junior this year, and it also seems to be where many people believe Fitz should have evolved to through this point in his career.

    2014
    Dak - 114 of 189 (60.3) for 1,694 (14 y/rec) 15 TDs, 5 INTs - 664 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 1 fumble lost - 13 sacks for -76 yards

    2017
    Fitz - 107 of 188 (56.9) for 1,179 (11 y/rec) 11 TDs, 7 INTs - 561 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 0 fumbles - 2 sacks for -9 yards

    Obviously, I didn't look at more advance metrics which I am sure could be used to pick apart more nuances and only used basic stats. The stats and production are incredibly similar - with the biggest difference in yards per reception. But, here is my question - Why does Fitz draw so much more criticism when the difference in the end results is pretty negligible?

    Discuss

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    Senior Member ShotgunDawg's Avatar
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    Dak's numbers look better me. Are these really close?

    Dak appears to be about two games ahead.

    Doesn't hurt that Dak had Bear, Ross, Fred Brown, & Malcolm Johnson.

    If you want to blame any one thing, blame Billy G & Sallach for allowing the talent levels at their positions to significantly regress

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    Why does Fitz draw so much more criticism when the difference in the end results is pretty negligible?

    Discuss
    Because 7-0 vs 5-2

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg View Post
    Dak's numbers look better me. Are these really close?

    Dak appears to be about two games ahead.

    Doesn't hurt that Dak had Bear, Ross, Fred Brown, & Malcolm Johnson.

    If you want to blame any one thing, blame Billy G & Sallach for allowing the talent levels at their positions to significantly regress
    I can't remember 2014 second halves but Nick has sat a ton of time in the second half this year. I know he has in CSU, LA Tech, LSU, BYU, and UK now. Not sure he gets the extra 515 passing if he plays those but I definitely think he gets more than 103 rushing yards

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    Ok - as everyone knows, I'm the resident Fitz defender. As Dawg61 will point out, I get my back up and jump to his defense at the least little thing. Something has bugged me the last 2 weeks on Twitter and I think it needed a little deeper look. The constant harping on drops vs. "inaccurate throws".

    After 2 bad performances against UGA and AU, we all know that Fitz still needs time to develop and isn't where many would like him to be. However, this turned into some real twitter rage after BYU that continued after the Kentucky game. In particular, I'm going to call out Brett Hudson at the Commercial Dispatch for feeding this by breaking down every incompletion on twitter the last 2 weeks and judging if it is the receivers fault or Fitz's fault. We have 2 blowout wins in a row, and (as usual) someone covering our team are spending their time feeding a narrative that serves only to stir the pot.

    So, I decide to compare 2017 to 2014 through 7 games. I used 2014 since it was Dak's Junior year and Fitz is a Junior this year, and it also seems to be where many people believe Fitz should have evolved to through this point in his career.

    2014
    Dak - 114 of 189 (60.3) for 1,694 (14 y/rec) 15 TDs, 5 INTs - 664 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 1 fumble lost - 13 sacks for -76 yards

    2017
    Fitz - 107 of 188 (56.9) for 1,179 (11 y/rec) 11 TDs, 7 INTs - 561 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 0 fumbles - 2 sacks for -9 yards

    Obviously, I didn't look at more advance metrics which I am sure could be used to pick apart more nuances and only used basic stats. The stats and production are incredibly similar - with the biggest difference in yards per reception. But, here is my question - Why does Fitz draw so much more criticism when the difference in the end results is pretty negligible?

    Discuss
    The difference is not negligible. That's a big difference. But, Dak had much better recovers to work with. Also had a better Oline and a better rb (although the difference at those groups aren't like the huge gap at the wide receiver position).

    All that said, people expecting fitz to be where Dak was his jr year are never going to be happy with fitz. Even though he got to play a lot last year at qb compared to DAK's RS So year, that's just not a realistic expectation for somebody that played one year of HS qb. Hell, it wasn't really realistic to expect it of Dak. It just usually doesn't work it that way.

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    In 2014, our tough games were after the first seven. This year, we've already been dominated by two top ten caliber teams. I know that the teams we beat in 2014 were ranked highly at the team, but they did not turn out to be as good as advertised. AU and UG are that good. Personally, I believe that either of them could go toe to toe with Bama. I know LSU beat AU. But they've got a great defense and a good running game.

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    Senior Member Tbonewannabe's Avatar
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    The UGA team that Fitz played would have probably been the best team Dak saw all year (Bama). LSU might end up being about the same and Auburn about the same if not a game better. We might not have a receiver or TE that would be in the rotation on the 2014 team. Mixon and Gray might have gotten blowout reps and maybe Thomas if he was used correctly.

    It says something when the 3rd WR on that team (Fred Brown) would be head and shoulders the best WR on our current team. I think the Oline is probably close to equal and the RBs have better depth but JRob is also better. You are also comparing Fitz to the greatest football player regardless of position to ever put on the Maroon and White. Gene Stallings was a shitty coach compared to Bear Bryant but he still won a National Title and a lot of games. Fitz is probably on pace to be the 2nd best QB to play at MSU but comparing him to Dak isn't exactly fair.

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    General Public Political Hack's Avatar
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    Fitz has done a great job this year. He's an option QB that Mullen has developed into a balanced QB. That takes time and reps. We have to invest time, during games, developing the passing game. He's behind Dak as a passer, but I think he's ahead of him as a runner. Let's not forget who they're throwing to either. I bet if you take away Bear's back shoulder those numbers would be very close.

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    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vv83 View Post
    I can't remember 2014 second halves but Nick has sat a ton of time in the second half this year. I know he has in CSU, LA Tech, LSU, BYU, and UK now. Not sure he gets the extra 515 passing if he plays those but I definitely think he gets more than 103 rushing yards
    Interesting point. Key has played in all 7 games - is 8 of 19 for 66 and 1 TD with 177 rushing yards and 2 TDs.
    In 2014, Dam. Williams played in 3 of the first 7 games, was 9 of 16 for 79 and 1 TD with 27 rushing yards and 0 TDs. He only played in 2 games after that - UTM and Vandy. So yes, Dak got more on field time than Fitz thru 7 games. Of course, not all of his games were blow outs like this year.

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    Senior Member Really Clark?'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by vv83 View Post
    I can't remember 2014 second halves but Nick has sat a ton of time in the second half this year. I know he has in CSU, LA Tech, LSU, BYU, and UK now. Not sure he gets the extra 515 passing if he plays those but I definitely think he gets more than 103 rushing yards
    Fitz has not played a full game this season.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Really Clark? View Post
    Fitz has not played a full game this season.
    True but yards per reception favors dak big time and on equal number of throws.

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    Dak is so good that he's changed the way the NFL looks at rookie QB's. Fitz is a damned impressive aspirer to that level.

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    Super Moderator CadaverDawg's Avatar
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    Fitz is not as good as Dak, but that's a damn high bar. Doesn't mean he isn't a good QB. Has he had some inaccurate moments, sure....but the biggest difference btwn Dak & Fitz is Dak passed in HS & Dak had 10 times the receiver advantage. Fitz has done well, and is likely the 2nd best QB in our history when he leaves. People bashing Fitz are dumb, and are also such a small % of our fan base that they shouldn't be worth mentioning. That's my thoughts

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    Quote Originally Posted by CadaverDawg View Post
    Fitz is not as good as Dak, but that's a damn high bar. Doesn't mean he isn't a good QB. Has he had some inaccurate moments, sure....but the biggest difference btwn Dak & Fitz is Dak passed in HS & Dak had 10 times the receiver advantage. Fitz has done well, and is likely the 2nd best QB in our history when he leaves. People bashing Fitz are dumb, and are also such a small % of our fan base that they shouldn't be worth mentioning. That's my thoughts
    Agree...

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    Senior Member Jack Lambert's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Political Hack View Post
    Fitz has done a great job this year. He's an option QB that Mullen has developed into a balanced QB. That takes time and reps. We have to invest time, during games, developing the passing game. He's behind Dak as a passer, but I think he's ahead of him as a runner. Let's not forget who they're throwing to either. I bet if you take away Bear's back shoulder those numbers would be very close.
    Fitz has made some bad throws but there have been a lot of drop passes that Dak's WR would not have dropped. This has to be hurting his stats. How about that attempted pass to the TE when he tripe? Perfect pass, beat the DB and was wide open, unbelievable.

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    One big diff between the two is how Dak goes through his checkdowns/progressions and Fitz is usually going to his first assignment. This is most probably from Dak having been a HS QB for 3 years while Fitz only had one. Plus Dak had better receivers to go to.

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    Senior Member Gutter Cobreh's Avatar
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    Fitz ranks 72nd in the country in completion percentage and 93rd in yards per pass attempt. That's not good to say the least. The WR drops shouldn't be blamed for all of that as Fitz does not have touch or accuracy with deep balls at this point in his development.

    Also, while Dak was a great QB - I don't remember him being a great passer in 14. Not sure why you chose him for comparison other than the school connection.
    Last edited by Gutter Cobreh; 10-23-2017 at 01:45 PM. Reason: Added extra ranking

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    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Think about this for a minute. What we would be saying about Fitz if he had played before Dak.

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    Senior Member Really Clark?'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gutter Cobreh View Post
    Fitz ranks 72nd in the country in completion percentage and 93rd in yards per pass attempt. That's not good to say the least. The WR drops shouldn't be blamed for all of that as Fitz does not have touch or accuracy with deep balls at this point in his development.

    Also, while Dak was a great QB - I don't remember him being a great passer in 14. Not sure why you chose him for comparison other than the school connection.
    Fitz has to keep developing, no question, but with so many bad drops by the WR this year it has effected this percentage and INT's (remember at least 2 were completely on the WR). I don't anyone would disagree that the WR have dropped at least 10 sure catches this season. That would put Fitz at 44 in the country at 62.2% completion percentage. Changes perception when you factor personnel issues not related to an inaccurate throw.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    Think about this for a minute. What we would be saying about Fitz if he had played before Dak.
    Same as Relf.

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