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Thread: Will Fitz Throw the Ball Effectively Tomorrow?

  1. #21
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    It?s about 50/50 Fitz and receivers. Our receivers arent world beaters right now but Fitz is missing reads and going to his checkdown way to early at times. Twice against uga on third and +5 he checked down to shallow cross when gray was running free on a deep corner because the safety was jumping all the underneath stuff. Happened couple times at auburn too. Gotta get it fixed.

  2. #22
    Senior Member TaleofTwoDogs's Avatar
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    So many of you guys want Fitz to be what he isn't, a throwing QB. Fitz is a athlete playing QB just like Relf. He is not Dak and never will be. Fitz needs an elite OL to be truly successful and the last time I looked we barely have a SEC quality line. Like all option QBs his bread and butter is the short pass and we need to get our TEs and RBs more involved in the passing game otherwise it's 8 men in the box and we get stuffed at the line.

  3. #23
    Senior Member Prediction? Pain.'s Avatar
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    The passing game against UGA and Auburn was atrocious any which way you slice it. Missed reads, skipped reads (according to Mullen, at least), drops, etc.

    But let's keep things in context.

    We've played four FBS teams this year. Here are their national defensive ranks in, (1) opponents' QB rating, and (2) yards per opponents' passing attempt (both of which are against other FBS teams, so no stats from games vs. FCS teams included):

    Opponents' QB Rating


    La. Tech - 43rd
    LSU - 32nd
    UGA - 1st
    AU - 11th

    Opponents' Yards Per Attempt


    La. Tech - 32nd
    LSU - 14th
    UGA - 1st
    AU - 7th

    The S&P+ and FEI passing defense ranks aren't out yet (they come out after Week 7), but LSU, UGA, and AU are all in the top 15 nationally in the overall S&P+ defense rankings.

    Now, we're only six weeks into the season, so these stats are far from final. And of course LSU hasn't faced a murderer's row of FBS passing offenses (us, Troy, Syracuse, and FL). But still, with the data that we've got, we haven't played a bad or even bottom half FBS pass defense so far.

    Against two pass defenses that have so far been average to good (La. Tech and LSU), our pass offense was solid. QB ratings of ~160 in each, 65% completion percentage in each, 5 TDs, 1 INT. It wasn't prolific, mind you -- 312 yards combined in those two games. But I don't think it's designed to be. At its best with our current lineup, it's efficient and effective. And that's exactly what it was against what are currently top 40 and a top 25 pass defenses.

    Against the No. 1 pass defense in college football on the road? Yeah, not so much. Against a top 10 pass defense, again on the road? Nope.

    Now, that doesn't mean we shouldn't have been able to produce more against UGA and AU. I'd like to think that our passing offense should be far enough along with Fitz in charge since the early part of last season to at least keep things decent against pass defenses that good.

    But it may be a little early to say that Fitz and crew have been terrible across the board.

    Also, about Relf in 2010, it's hard to compare 5 games this year to a whole season's worth of stats 7 years ago. Still, it may be worth noting that by season's end in 2010, we may not have faced a pass defense as good as AU's or UGA's. Using the same stats that I referenced above, here were the best pass defenses we faced in 2010:


    Opponents' QB Rating


    Bama - 9th
    LSU - 28th
    Arkansas - 39th
    Kentucky - 40th


    Opponents' Yards Per Attempt


    Bama - 20th
    LSU - 38th
    Arkansas - 57th
    Kentucky - 61st

    Most of those teams were better per S&P+ pass defense rankings that year (8th, 12th, 21st, 56th, respectively; also, AU was 37th in that metric despite it's not-so-hot traditional pass defense stats), but you get the picture. And let's not forget how things went for Relf when he passed against SEC teams. 6 TDs, 10 INTs, the 10th ranked QB rating in the SEC, and the 11th ranked completion % in the SEC.

    Shifting gears a bit, what makes me even more upset than our passing offense against elite passing defenses is our passing defense against UGA and AU. AU's ranks in the traditional stat categories we're talking about are admittedly in the top 15, but UGA's are in the mid-30s. Our national, FBS-game-only ranks in opposing QB rating and yards per attempt? 101st and 111th. Out of 130.

    Yikes.

    It's like the pass offense numbers in that they're skewed by two bad games against two great teams, but even more so on this side of the ball. UGA's and AU's QB ratings and yards per attempt against us? QB ratings of 270 and 253, and YPA of 16.8 and 15.7. WTF? I didn't even know QB ratings went that high. And 16 and 17 yards per pass attempt? The best QB rating and highest YPA in the country right now both belong to OU, and theirs are 217 and 12.5. So in two consecutive games, neither of which were against a passing offense that's firmly in the top 10 nationally, we let opponents have nationally outstanding days passing the football. That ain't gonna get it done.

    If we're still that piss poor come season's end, I'll be disappointed in Grantham and the secondary coaches. But for now, I'm cool with blaming good ole Peter Sirmon. We finished last year in those two categories pretty much where we are right now (104th nationally in opponents' QB rating and 94th in YPA), so it's indeed a pretty big hole to come out of.

    Ok. That's all I've got. I'll carry on with my rocking Friday night of football-stat reading and solo scotch drinking. Fatherhood!
    Last edited by Prediction? Pain.; 10-13-2017 at 10:14 PM.

  4. #24
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain. View Post
    The passing game against UGA and Auburn was atrocious any which way you slice it. Missed reads, skipped reads (according to Mullen, at least), drops, etc.

    But let's keep things in context.

    We've played four FBS teams this year. Here are their national defensive ranks in, (1) opponents' QB rating, and (2) yards per opponents' passing attempt (both of which are against other FBS teams, so no stats from games vs. FCS teams included):

    Opponents' QB Rating


    La. Tech - 43rd
    LSU - 32nd
    UGA - 1st
    AU - 11th

    Opponents' Yards Per Attempt


    La. Tech - 32nd
    LSU - 14th
    UGA - 1st
    AU - 7th

    The S&P+ and FEI passing defense ranks aren't out yet (they come out after Week 7), but LSU, UGA, and AU are all in the top 15 nationally in the overall S&P+ defense rankings.

    Now, we're only six weeks into the season, so these stats are far from final. And of course LSU hasn't faced a murderer's row of FBS passing offenses (us, Troy, Syracuse, and FL). But still, with the data that we've got, we haven't played a bad or even bottom half FBS pass defense so far.

    Against two pass defenses that have so far been average to good (La. Tech and LSU), our pass offense was solid. QB ratings of ~160 in each, 65% completion percentage in each, 5 TDs, 1 INT. It wasn't prolific, mind you -- 312 yards combined in those two games. But I don't think it's designed to be. At its best with our current lineup, it's efficient and effective. And that's exactly what it was against what are currently top 40 and a top 25 pass defenses.

    Against the No. 1 pass defense in college football on the road? Yeah, not so much. Against a top 10 pass defense, again on the road? Nope.

    Now, that doesn't mean we shouldn't have been able to produce more against UGA and AU. I'd like to think that our passing offense should be far enough along with Fitz in charge since the early part of last season to at least keep things decent against pass defenses that good.

    But it may be a little early to say that Fitz and crew have been terrible across the board.

    Also, about Relf in 2010, it's hard to compare 5 games this year to a whole season's worth of stats 7 years ago. Still, it may be worth noting that by season's end in 2010, we may not have faced a pass defense as good as AU's or UGA's. Using the same stats that I referenced above, here were the best pass defenses we faced in 2010:


    Opponents' QB Rating


    Bama - 9th
    LSU - 28th
    Arkansas - 39th
    Kentucky - 40th


    Opponents' Yards Per Attempt


    Bama - 20th
    LSU - 38th
    Arkansas - 57th
    Kentucky - 61st

    Most of those teams were better per S&P+ pass defense rankings that year (8th, 12th, 21st, 56th, respectively; also, AU was 37th in that metric despite it's not-so-hot traditional pass defense stats), but you get the picture. And let's not forget how things went for Relf when he passed against SEC teams. 6 TDs, 10 INTs, the 10th ranked QB rating in the SEC, and the 11th ranked completion % in the SEC.

    Shifting gears a bit, what makes me even more upset than our passing offense against elite passing defenses is our passing defense against UGA and AU. AU's ranks in the traditional stat categories we're talking about are admittedly in the top 15, but UGA's are in the mid-30s. Our national, FBS-game-only ranks in opposing QB rating and yards per attempt? 101st and 111th. Out of 130.

    Yikes.

    It's like the pass offense numbers in that they're skewed by two bad games against two great teams, but even more so on this side of the ball. UGA's and AU's QB ratings and yards per attempt against us? QB ratings of 270 and 253, and YPA of 16.8 and 15.7. WTF? I didn't even know QB ratings went that high. And 16 and 17 yards per pass attempt? The best QB rating and highest YPA in the country right now both belong to OU, and theirs are 217 and 12.5. So in two consecutive games, neither of which were against a passing offense that's firmly in the top 10 nationally, we let opponents have nationally outstanding days passing the football.

    Ok. That's all I've got. I'll carry on with my rocking Friday night of football-stat reading and solo scotch drinking. Fatherhood!
    Dang man thats some great research. Good stuff, thanks. Puts things in a better perspective.

  5. #25
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Great stuff Pain. Personally, I think everyone is over analyzing what happened against AU and UGa. We ran into back to back buzz saws. It sucked. We get back to what we were the 1st 3 games, and we will win out save Bama. If we don?t, we will be staring at 6-6 like last year. It?s that simple.

  6. #26
    Senior Member Prediction? Pain.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Commercecomet24 View Post
    Dang man thats some great research. Good stuff, thanks. Puts things in a better perspective.
    Thanks, man. And kudos to you for even reading that whole mess. Looking back after posting, I see that's a ginormous glob of words. TLDR away, people.

  7. #27
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain. View Post
    Thanks, man. And kudos to you for even reading that whole mess. Looking back after posting, I see that's a ginormous glob of words. TLDR away, people.
    Youre welcome. I?m a stats/data guy so Im always intrigued, especially with in depth research like that. Really, really good stuff.

  8. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by TaleofTwoDogs View Post
    So many of you guys want Fitz to be what he isn't, a throwing QB. Fitz is a athlete playing QB just like Relf. He is not Dak and never will be. Fitz needs an elite OL to be truly successful and the last time I looked we barely have a SEC quality line. Like all option QBs his bread and butter is the short pass and we need to get our TEs and RBs more involved in the passing game otherwise it's 8 men in the box and we get stuffed at the line.
    Fitz is a much better passer than relf. Not even close. Now he is not a good passer at this point, still a ways to go. But much better passer than relf.

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeastMan View Post
    First off, we don't drop 7 balls a game. Not even close. Maybe one game a year that will happen and that's for every team in football. I watch NFL games where they drop multiple passes a game every week. Good QBs throw WRs open. Dak did it all the damn time. Fitz cannot do it. He just doesn't see it. And that's what makes a good QB good. Any average QB can hit a guy streaking down the field wide open. That's usually indicative of a coverage bust more than some great route being ran anyway.
    I didn't say we drop 7 per game. I said ours have dropped 7 in A game.

    And that's not for every team in football. Name me two other games you've seen this year with 7 drops from one team.

    And hell no fitz can't do what dak did. Dak was all pro as a rookie. He is a top 10 or higher qb in the NFL. That's the problem: people are comparing fitz to dak. Fitz has a ways to go still, but the wr are the much bigger problem right now. We have a solid qb and sunbelt wr.

  10. #30
    Senior Member Prediction? Pain.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    Great stuff Pain. Personally, I think everyone is over analyzing what happened against AU and UGa. We ran into back to back buzz saws. It sucked. We get back to what we were the 1st 3 games, and we will win out save Bama. If we don?t, we will be staring at 6-6 like last year. It?s that simple.
    Having just done my own over-analysis of the whole thing, yeah, you're probably right. Other than Alabama, no other defense we play will be in the same league as AU and UGA. (Hell, UGA's or AU's defenses may turn out to be just as good if not better than Bama's by the end of the year for all we know. They're both yielding a few less yards per play than Bama's right now.) Really, none of the others' defenses save Bama's may even be as good as LSU's either. (We'll find out more about them this weekend, of course.)

  11. #31
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain. View Post
    Having just done my own over-analysis of the whole thing, yeah, you're probably right. Other than Alabama, no other defense we play will be in the same league as AU and UGA. (Hell, UGA's or AU's defenses may turn out to be just as good if not better than Bama's by the end of the year for all we know. They're both yielding a few less yards per play than Bama's right now.) Really, none may even be as good as LSU's either. (We'll find out more about them this weekend, of course.)
    IMO uga maybe the equal to bama on defense right now(sorry tusk), with auburn not far behind.

  12. #32
    Senior Member Commercecomet24's Avatar
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    Uga, auburn and bama are the NFL portion of our schedule lol

  13. #33
    Senior Member BiscuitEater's Avatar
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    1) You do understand that we have played LSU, GA & Auburn?
    2) We beat LSU soundly 37-7
    3) BYU did NOT get past the 50 against LSU (see #2)

    D has to play aggressively like they did against LSU
    O must play like they did against LSU
    That is all ..
    Coach34 .. "We're not hiring the ****ing Pirate at Miss State. GTFO"


  14. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeastMan View Post
    That?s a fallacy. Everybody drops balls. I?ve searched for drop stats and cannot find them. Bama, OM, and every other team in the country drops balls every week
    Nonsense, have you watched us play, and watched other teams play as well? My 8 year old daughter wouldn't drop as many passes as our receivers PER GAME. If you're not seeing it it's because you don't want to. It's bad.

  15. #35
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    I'm just gonna bump this for BeastMan. We might have dropped 7 already in the first damn quarter. It is a big problem.

  16. #36
    Senior Member thf24's Avatar
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    Maybe it's not statistically observable, but if you can't see that a way above average number of drops are a huge factor in our passing struggles, I don't know what to tell you. It can't be more obvious.

  17. #37
    Super Moderator BeastMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TimberBeast View Post
    I'm just gonna bump this for BeastMan. We might have dropped 7 already in the first damn quarter. It is a big problem.
    How bout dat throw on the goaline? Was that a bad route?

  18. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeastMan View Post
    How bout dat throw on the goaline? Was that a bad route?
    Receiver got both hands on the ball.... should have been caught.

  19. #39
    Super Moderator BeastMan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Leeshouldveflanked View Post
    Receiver got both hands on the ball.... should have been caught.
    Was a horrible throw

  20. #40
    Super Moderator BeastMan's Avatar
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    Back foot, lazy mechanics, horrible INT again

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