Jackie Sherrill spoiled us

[Todd4State]

I was thinking about the ESPN stat that they keep throwing up about Dan going 2-15 against AP top 25 teams or whatever it is. And I decided to look at some things to try to see what our baseline for beating those teams should be. So, I started when MSU football started to beat such teams with 1991. Jackie won EIGHT games against teams that finished in the AP top 25 in his career at MSU. Even more remarkable he did that in his first 10 years. So he won on average one AP top 25 win four out of every five years.

1992- Florida
1994- Tennessee
1996- Alabama
1997- Auburn
1998- Arkansas
1999- Ole Miss (Pass, pick, and kick and best Egg Bowl ever!)
2000- Florida
2000- Auburn

Croom managed one in 2007 over Auburn.

Dan has two- 2009 against Ole Miss and 2014 against Auburn.

I'm going to guess that Jackie's win total was maybe a little higher than what we should expect- but Dan's is probably a little lower than what we should expect. Realistically we should be expecting somewhere between 2-4 AP top 25 wins every five years. Dan looks like he is going to average one out of every five years at his current rate.

Another interesting thing to note- of the 11 AP top 25 wins we have had since 1991, 9 have come in Starkville.

[Indndawg]

I was thinking about the ESPN stat that they keep throwing up about Dan going 2-15 against AP top 25 teams or whatever it is. And I decided to look at some things to try to see what our baseline for beating those teams should be. So, I started when MSU football started to beat such teams with 1991. Jackie won EIGHT games against teams that finished in the AP top 25 in his career at MSU. Even more remarkable he did that in his first 10 years. So he won on average one AP top 25 win four out of every five years.

1992- Florida
1994- Tennessee
1996- Alabama
1997- Auburn
1998- Arkansas
1999- Ole Miss (Pass, pick, and kick and best Egg Bowl ever!)
2000- Florida
2000- Auburn

Croom managed one in 2007 over Auburn.

Dan has two- 2009 against Ole Miss and 2014 against Auburn.

I'm going to guess that Jackie's win total was maybe a little higher than what we should expect- but Dan's is probably a little lower than what we should expect. Realistically we should be expecting somewhere between 2-4 AP top 25 wins every five years. Dan looks like he is going to average one out of every five years at his current rate.

Another interesting thing to note- of the 11 AP top 25 wins we have had since 1991, 9 have come in Starkville.

Great wins and head scratching losses (and ties)...Ark State comes to mind. Still, I'd trade a few head scratchers in on some upsets of the big boys.

[Bully13]

Weren't both AU and UF both ranked that year we beat them back to back? What about those 2 wins over Texas? Were any of those 2 teams ranked?

[nsvltndog]

This is likely only counting post season rankings. Texas in Starkville was ranked. I think Zook was ranked when he got Croomed, 2014 - LSU, A&M, and Auburn were all ranked. I suspect there are other examples.

[msstate7]

We have to be the only fanbase I know that picks criteria that paints us in the worst light. It?s weird... Most fanbases would definitely count the 3 wins vs highly ranked teams in ?14; not us though. You think bama talks about their fsu win as being over an unranked team? Nah, fsu was highly ranked and they broke fsu. Meanwhile, we beat those teams in ?14 and well, I guess they weren?t any good.

[Todd4State]

This is likely only counting post season rankings. Texas in Starkville was ranked. I think Zook was ranked when he got Croomed, 2014 - LSU, A&M, and Auburn were all ranked. I suspect there are other examples.

You are correct. And the reason I picked that criteria is because that's what ESPN is using with Dan and his 2-15 record.

[thf24]

Jackie was great in this area for sure, although without looking I feel like it was probably easier and more common to pull significant upsets in that era. That was a little before my time, but I don't think we were quite seeing the machines of consistency that the top teams are now. It seems like in the modern era, you have to be at least close in terms of top end talent to pull a bunch of upsets.

[Liverpooldawg]

You are correct. And the reason I picked that criteria is because that's what ESPN is using with Dan and his 2-15 record.

It needs to be mentioned again I guess: ESPN has a nice colony of Rebs working there. Why we insist on aiding them I have no idea.

[basedog]

It needs to be mentioned again I guess: ESPN has a nice colony of Rebs working there. Why we insist on aiding them I have no idea.

Good question. The problem with some they feel better that they know how to fix our history. DM is more good than bad, he has improved on what JSW built.

Let's hope the nex Coach builds on what DM has built, it's coming and some will get there wish, let's just hope we don't get Croomed!

[Political Hack]

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.

[stalkingpoon]

2-15 when both teams are ranked. Come on we beat 3 top 25 teams in a row in 2014.

[Maroonthirteen]

We have to be the only fanbase I know that picks criteria that paints us in the worst light.

Many State fans get their talking points from their buddy OM fans.

[Maroonthirteen]

Why is this stat getting so much attention?

What does it matter if we are ranked or not? What is Dans record period vs ranked opponents? What is Dans overall winning percentage at MSU compared to all time results for MSU?

[BrunswickDawg]

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.

You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Political Hack again.

Dan's not a problem. He's not perfect, but he's not a problem. These BS cherry picking negative stats just serve to reinforce our inferiority complex. Dan has the program at our highest point since the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor. It was fun knocking off some big teams under Jackie. But, it totally sucked knowing that would be nullified every year with a loss to Arkansas State, or Memphis, a terrible LSU team, or some other directional school. What Jackie did was also not sustainable nor was it a solid program foundation. Dan has given us a solid program foundation for the first time in our history. Can he make a jump to the next level? I don't know. What I do know is I'm at least willing to ride with Dan to see if he can over the next 4-5 years.

[Liverpooldawg]

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.

Outstanding post!!!

[Bully13]

Y'all think he'd still be 2-15 if he were at Florida, UGA, Notre Dame, or Texas?

I don't. It's way too easy to point the finger at Dan and suggest he's the problem. We've got a historically bottom feeder SEC program that's improved tremendously under his leadership. We haven't taken the next step yet, and I get that's frustrating, but we've been fighting an uphill battle against LSU, A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arky, and Bama. What he's done has been accomplished against the toughest division in the history of college football. Given that Ole Miss is about to be Slam hammered, Arky & A&M & LSU are struggling, and Bama and Auburn are the only two division teams who are obviously ahead of us, I'd vote we relax a little and let the man do his job. People who live and die with every win and loss make great fans, but they wouldn't make a great AD.

Bump for accuracy. Nailed it Hack. Gracias Senior.

[99jc]

Joe lee Dunn out of the picture and his defenses jackie was mediocre at best.

[confucius say]

2-15 when both teams are ranked. Come on we beat 3 top 25 teams in a row in 2014.

THIS!! Read people. 2-15 when both teams are ranked. Y'all think we've only played 17 games against ranked teams in 8.5 years?

[Acid mouth]

You are correct. And the reason I picked that criteria is because that's what ESPN is using with Dan and his 2-15 record.

One more reason to hate ESPN. You can skew stats whichever way you want but I'm going with the eye test. Mullen develops under the radar talent, and he sends them to the NFL. He is the only coach in the state who can say that. I want Vegas odds on Dan beating just one Top 25 team over the next 5 years.

[War Machine Dawg]

I was thinking about the ESPN stat that they keep throwing up about Dan going 2-15 against AP top 25 teams or whatever it is. And I decided to look at some things to try to see what our baseline for beating those teams should be. So, I started when MSU football started to beat such teams with 1991. Jackie won EIGHT games against teams that finished in the AP top 25 in his career at MSU. Even more remarkable he did that in his first 10 years. So he won on average one AP top 25 win four out of every five years.

1992- Florida
1994- Tennessee
1996- Alabama
1997- Auburn
1998- Arkansas
1999- Ole Miss (Pass, pick, and kick and best Egg Bowl ever!)
2000- Florida
2000- Auburn

Croom managed one in 2007 over Auburn.

Dan has two- 2009 against Ole Miss and 2014 against Auburn.

I'm going to guess that Jackie's win total was maybe a little higher than what we should expect- but Dan's is probably a little lower than what we should expect. Realistically we should be expecting somewhere between 2-4 AP top 25 wins every five years. Dan looks like he is going to average one out of every five years at his current rate.

Another interesting thing to note- of the 11 AP top 25 wins we have had since 1991, 9 have come in Starkville.

You're looking at the wrong stat. The stat ESPN is talking about is ranked vs ranked (I think). Using that stat, The Kang was 3-13. So, a little better than Mullen, but not a whole lot.