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Thread: Sagarin Ratings....

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    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Sagarin Ratings....

    I know a lot of yall aren't into star ratings, data, and other such metrics, but I thought yall'd dig on this, anyway:

    1 Alabama
    2 Oklahoma
    3 Clemson
    4 Ohio State
    5 Okie State
    6 Wisconsin
    7 Penn State
    8 Washington
    9 FSU
    10 USC
    11 Miss State
    12 Michigan
    13 Auburn
    14 LSU
    15 Georgia
    16 Notre Dame
    17 TCU
    18 Va Tech
    19 Oregon
    20 Miami
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

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    Senior Member bulldawg28's Avatar
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    WTH is a sagarin rating?

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    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bulldawg28 View Post
    WTH is a sagarin rating?
    it's some egghead type shit, buddy... lots of cypherin, "mathematical expectation", etc and seech....

    dig it: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

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    Senior Member msbulldog's Avatar
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    Thanks Tusk, I still don't like warrior river trade school folks.

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    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by msbulldog View Post
    Thanks Tusk, I still don't like warrior river trade school folks.
    I prolly dislike a lot of em more than you, buddy.
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

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    Senior Member Howboutdemdogs's Avatar
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    Saragin is the base for the Vegas bookies use on spreads before using any other information. Excluding the occasional and true upsets, the game formula is probably the most consistent in winning,,,,,especially the money line.

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    Senior Member MetEdDawg's Avatar
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    For whatever ESPN's percentages are worth, they are now shifting the game in our favor against UGA. Last I saw we were at 52.3% chance to win.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TUSK View Post
    I know a lot of yall aren't into star ratings, data, and other such metrics, but I thought yall'd dig on this, anyway:

    1 Alabama
    2 Oklahoma
    3 Clemson
    4 Ohio State
    5 Okie State
    6 Wisconsin
    7 Penn State
    8 Washington
    9 FSU
    10 USC
    11 Miss State
    12 Michigan
    13 Auburn
    14 LSU
    15 Georgia
    16 Notre Dame
    17 TCU
    18 Va Tech
    19 Oregon
    20 Miami
    You gotta qualify that ... interested only when it's advantageous. **

  9. #9
    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    You gotta qualify that ... interested only when it's advantageous. **
    egggggggggggggggggzactly.... LOL

    +1
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Howboutdemdogs View Post
    Saragin is the base for the Vegas bookies use on spreads before using any other information. Excluding the occasional and true upsets, the game formula is probably the most consistent in winning,,,,,especially the money line.
    So why are we a 6.5 point dog to a team ranked 4 spots below us? It can't be that big of a component on the spread or our game this weekend would be a pick em at worst.

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    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HSVDawg View Post
    So why are we a 6.5 point dog to a team ranked 4 spots below us? It can't be that big of a component on the spread or our game this weekend would be a pick em at worst.
    Vegas doesn't care "who's gonna win"... they just want the money bet evenly...

    MSU 88.02
    UGA 85.21

    2.81-2.41 (home field) = 0.40

    So, if I did that correctly, Sagarin has MSU -.040

    So, yes... a "pick em".... per Sagarin...

    Edit: also take in to account that the further the season goes on, the more accurate the ratings become due to an increased data sample size.
    Last edited by TUSK; 09-18-2017 at 09:16 PM.
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

  12. #12
    Senior Member ShotgunDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Howboutdemdogs View Post
    Saragin is the base for the Vegas bookies use on spreads before using any other information. Excluding the occasional and true upsets, the game formula is probably the most consistent in winning,,,,,especially the money line.
    So why is Georgia -6 when we are ahead in the Sagrin ratings?

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    Senior Member Dallas_Dawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg View Post
    So why is Georgia -6 when we are ahead in the Sagrin ratings?
    Because of perception. That's it. People in Vegas still see us playing the "great" Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges.
    So basically, load up on State. I should have had the balls to do it last week but didn't

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    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg View Post
    So why is Georgia -6 when we are ahead in the Sagrin ratings?
    Vegas doesn't care "who's gonna win"... they just want the money bet evenly...

    MSU 88.02
    UGA 85.21

    2.81-2.41 (home field) = 0.40

    So, if I did that correctly, Sagarin has MSU -.040

    So, yes... a "pick em".... per Sagarin...

    Edit: also take in to account that the further the season goes on, the more accurate the ratings become due to an increased data sample size.
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

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    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dallas_Dawg View Post
    Because of perception. That's it. People in Vegas still see us playing the "great" Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges.
    So basically, load up on State. I should have had the balls to do it last week but didn't
    almost correct... Vegas gauges how the betting public sees UGA/MSU....

    If all the MSU fans started betting on MSU +6, the line would gravitate towards zero and possibly beyond... but that's unlikely...

    sometimes lines will jump BOTH early AND late, as well....
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dallas_Dawg View Post
    Because of perception. That's it. People in Vegas still see us playing the "great" Georgia Bulldogs between the hedges.
    So basically, load up on State. I should have had the balls to do it last week but didn't
    Yeah that is more along what I was thinking too, but that kinda refutes the fact that Sagarin is the basis for anything that Vegas does.

  17. #17
    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by HSVDawg View Post
    Yeah that is more along what I was thinking too, but that kinda refutes the fact that Sagarin is the basis for anything that Vegas does.
    I think he meant "baseline"... a starting point...

    Then they'll (sometimes) move it a few/several points based on a myriad of things before putting it out there....

    My guess is that they estimate a lot more money coming in on the UGAs and want to get ahead of the curve...
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

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    Quote Originally Posted by bulldawg28 View Post
    WTH is a sagarin rating?
    Been in USA today for approx 30 years.
    Actually pretty good.

  19. #19
    Senior Member Lumpy Chucklelips's Avatar
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    Here's a betting stat for you.....

    Since 2014, Miss. State has been a dog of 6 or more points 10 times. Have covered 8 of those 10, winning 5 outright. Ding-Dong damnit.

  20. #20
    TheDynastyIsDead TUSK's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lumpy Chucklelips View Post
    Here's a betting stat for you.....

    Since 2014, Miss. State has been a dog of 6 or more points 10 times. Have covered 8 of those 10, winning 5 outright. Ding-Dong damnit.
    How much ya plunking down on this lock?
    "It is not courage to resist TUSK; It is courage to accept TUSK."

    No.


    Easy there buddy. Tusk is...well Tusk is Tusk. Tireddawg 12.20.17

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