Hurricane Irma

[RougeDawg]

The thing is this, the whole mid-latitude setup is WAYYYY different than for Katrina.

My point is all of the models were/are taking into account an increase of overall forward motion to allow the front to turn it. To whicn has not occurred and looks like it's slowing down jogging south and west.

Here is another overall question for all of these storms the past few weeks. Why are these things moving so unnaturally. Katia is and has been sitting in almost the same spot for days, when the models has it already fizzled out by now? Irma keeps shifting the cone. Harvey had more rain on the hisicirally dry west side than the eastern side that was over the water. How did the water continue to just inundate the Western side of Harvey when most storms get drenched on the eastern side?

Being from the MS gulf coast and living through multiple storms including getting wipes out by Katrina, I've new fascinated with and watched these things for over 30 years. This year's storms are. It acting "natural."

I want to see your response before bringing something else up.

[starkvegasdawg]

Just my opinion and I may be dead wrong...I think there's just a lack of strong upper level steering currents right now and the storms are just meandering around. Normally, by this time of year cold fronts are starting to try and make their way into at least the northern US which is enough to pull tropical systems north. A very zonal quiet pattern now is not doing that.

[Homedawg]

My point is all of the models were/are taking into account an increase of overall forward motion to allow the front to turn it. To whicn has not occurred and looks like it's slowing down jogging south and west.

Here is another overall question for all of these storms the past few weeks. Why are these things moving so unnaturally. Katia is and has been sitting in almost the same spot for days, when the models has it already fizzled out by now? Irma keeps shifting the cone. Harvey had more rain on the hisicirally dry west side than the eastern side that was over the water. How did the water continue to just inundate the Western side of Harvey when most storms get drenched on the eastern side?

Being from the MS gulf coast and living through multiple storms including getting wipes out by Katrina, I've new fascinated with and watched these things for over 30 years. This year's storms are. It acting "natural."

I want to see your response before bringing something else up.

Oh shit, rouge now knows more about weather than a weather guy. Much like his hitting instruction prowess.

[TheRef]

My point is all of the models were/are taking into account an increase of overall forward motion to allow the front to turn it. To whicn has not occurred and looks like it's slowing down jogging south and west.

Here is another overall question for all of these storms the past few weeks. Why are these things moving so unnaturally. Katia is and has been sitting in almost the same spot for days, when the models has it already fizzled out by now? Irma keeps shifting the cone. Harvey had more rain on the hisicirally dry west side than the eastern side that was over the water. How did the water continue to just inundate the Western side of Harvey when most storms get drenched on the eastern side?

Being from the MS gulf coast and living through multiple storms including getting wipes out by Katrina, I've new fascinated with and watched these things for over 30 years. This year's storms are. It acting "natural."

I want to see your response before bringing something else up.

We are still working on our hurricane models. The problems we are having with Hurricanes on our models are that they are SO different than mid-latitude systems, thus we have to basically re-write all the formulas. Things are necessarily moving unnaturally. Tropical cyclones move to the best possible environment for it until they are "nudged" into landfall. With this in mind. Many, including myself, were expecting the storm to be "nudged" towards the Eastern side of Florida and follow the Gulf Stream. So these storms are still moving naturally.

The NE quadrant of the storm is usually where you get the strongest WINDS not necessarily the most rain. That's just due to the natural dynamics of a tropical system that like.

[confucius say]

We are still working on our hurricane models. The problems we are having with Hurricanes on our models are that they are SO different than mid-latitude systems, thus we have to basically re-write all the formulas. Things are necessarily moving unnaturally. Tropical cyclones move to the best possible environment for it until they are "nudged" into landfall. With this in mind. Many, including myself, were expecting the storm to be "nudged" towards the Eastern side of Florida and follow the Gulf Stream. So these storms are still moving naturally.

The NE quadrant of the storm is usually where you get the strongest WINDS not necessarily the most rain. That's just due to the natural dynamics of a tropical system that like.

That's why Mississippi coast got the worst of the wind in Katrina. Much worse than New Orleans, which got flooding. I remember reading that was the reason.

[TheRef]

That's why Mississippi coast got the worst of the wind in Katrina. Much worse than New Orleans, which got flooding. I remember reading that was the reason.

Correct. The worst possible winds are going to be in the NE quadrant of the storm. No matter what.

[starkvegasdawg]

Correct. The worst possible winds are going to be in the NE quadrant of the storm. No matter what.

And your tornado threat.

[starkvegasdawg]

Irma back to a Cat 5 with 160mph winds.

[Statecoachingblows**]

I'm no weather guru so I'll ask, did anyone anticipate Irma slowing down? Now at 13mph. Does that put gulf in play or included as part of the model runs?

[TimberBeast]

Irma back to a Cat 5 with 160mph winds.

I've seen people saying it has slowed because of Cuba, hopefully to start the turn north. Being on the MS coast I hope that's the case but still not seeing anything but West.

[starkvegasdawg]

Forecast is it turns north tomorrow. If my midadternoon it's still chugging west then I might get a bit concerned. One thing is it going over Cuba should weaken it some.

[TimberBeast]

Forecast is it turns north tomorrow. If my midadternoon it's still chugging west then I might get a bit concerned. One thing is it going over Cuba should weaken it some.

I hope so for our own sake in MS. Truth be told though somebody is about to get rocked, I hope somehow this thing dies down.

[Schultzy]

People always pay attention to category. The size of the storm and atmospheric pressure coming with it are much more of an indicator of potential damages Imo. Katrina was a Cat 3, but the storm took up the entire Gulf of Mexico and was near the record for the lowest pressure ever (lower is stronger). The pressure is a decent indicator of how much water it's carrying too.

Pressure is 930 millibar so is that high or low?

[TheRef]

Pressure is 930 millibar so is that high or low?

It's higher than what it was. Cuba is providing a lot of shear and inhibition at the moment.

[Indndawg]

It's higher than what it was. Cuba is providing a lot of shear and inhibition at the moment.

then turning up, NW, towards midsouth

[TheRef]

then turning up, NW, towards midsouth

Word of advice, never trust the NAM with a tropical cyclone. The NAM was made solely for mid-latitude systems, not hurricanes. Now, if you want to look at a model designed for hurricanes by the US, then look at the HWRF model.

[Indndawg]

Word of advice, never trust the NAM with a tropical cyclone. The NAM was made solely for mid-latitude systems, not hurricanes. Now, if you want to look at a model designed for hurricanes by the US, then look at the HWRF model.

systems. Ref, would you agree w/that?

[Indndawg]

BTW, I blv the US spent alot of $ on its modeling (GFS), are we getting our bang for the buck from that? I've read they are deep physics issues w/the model

[TheRef]

systems. Ref, would you agree w/that?

The Euro is the cream of the crop as far as models are concerned. GFS lags a little bit behind, but considering the budget it is running on it'll do.

Just remember that each model has strengths and weaknesses. The ECMWF has been really good at handling major systems like Irma and Harvey. But it does matter on the initialization on how good the model will be.

[TheRef]

BTW, I blv the US spent alot of $ on its modeling (GFS), are we getting our bang for the buck from that? I've read they are deep physics issues w/the model

While we have spent a good amount on the GFS, there is SOOOO much more needed. We are still lagging so far behind in terms of modeling. The reason is just due to the fact that we started off behind the 8-ball. We will continue to fight it though.