Hurricane Irma

[Beaver]

Does one in front of the other help/hurt development potential of the 2nd storm? I'm assuming Jose would go right through the same conducive waters thus strengthening too? Or does the first one sort of draw out all the energy?

Lots of factors, but many times the first storm would hurt development of the second storm. The first storm can create its own shear which acts to inhibit tropical systems. More importantly, a strong storm like Irma will generate upwelling of colder ocean water which is vital to tropical development. Additionally, the rain from the Irma will help to cool the ocean as well. If you look at a current sea surface map, you'd see the waters near the coast of Texas are cooler than the rest of the gulf thanks to Harvey.

Right now it looks like Jose won't be able to follow Irma and will stall in the Atlantic before being absorbed by a trough and curving away from the US. Still may end up as a strong storm though just because of the lack of shear in the Atlantic.

[starkvegasdawg]

Hurricane hunters just found 185mph surface winds.

[BrunswickDawg]

Looks like some of the models may be trying to push back east ever so slightly. Even so, FL looks to get ripped apart. Chasing a hurricane is high on my to do list but I don't think I'm crazy enough to get in front of this thing. Right now it has winds equivalent to a mid range EF-4 tornado.

Move to a coast - they will eventually chase you down. Took 16 years, but then I was hit by 2 storms in a month last Sept/Oct.

[ScoobaDawg]

Your local weather report....

Wunderground forecast for the island of Anguilla (UK) tonight: Heavy Rain/Wind. High 86F. SSW winds at 145 to 160 mph, decreasing to 80 to 100 mph.

[TheRef]

185 MPH sustained winds with gusts over 220 MPH. The Florida Keys are evacuating soon with Miami-Dade not far behind. If you have relatives in Florida, help however you can.

[iPat09]

Your local weather report....

Wunderground forecast for the island of Anguilla (UK) tonight: Heavy Rain/Wind. High 86F. SSW winds at 145 to 160 mph, decreasing to 80 to 100 mph.

sounds like balloon flying weather***

[TheRef]

sounds like balloon flying weather***

You kid, but all NWS officea are doing balloon launches every 6 hours now in support. Basically flooding the models with more data to get more accurate.

[starkvegasdawg]

Your local weather report....

Wunderground forecast for the island of Anguilla (UK) tonight: Heavy Rain/Wind. High 86F. SSW winds at 145 to 160 mph, decreasing to 80 to 100 mph.

That'll tear up an umbrella.

[iPat09]

You kid, but all NWS officea are doing balloon launches every 6 hours now in support. Basically flooding the models with more data to get more accurate.

Different type of balloon completely, but that doesn't make that any less impressive. Irma certainly deserves that much attention, at least.

On a side note, I'm an avid hot air balloonist. When winds are high, we always joke that it's fantastic, flyable weather. I never leave the ground if the winds are pushing 10 mph.

[TrueMaroon]

I've got to be at a function in Gulf Shores on Saturday; safe to stay there and leave Sunday morning or do I need to look to head north Saturday night?

[TheRef]

I've got to be at a function in Gulf Shores on Saturday; safe to stay there and leave Sunday morning or do I need to look to head north Saturday night?

You should be good.

[Beaver]

You kid, but all NWS officea are doing balloon launches every 6 hours now in support. Basically flooding the models with more data to get more accurate.

Fun fact. Launching balloons every 6 hours from all sites costs the NWS about $42,000 extra each day they do it. I wish they could do that permanently, but the NWS would need an extra 15 million.

[Hasu Dackds]

I've got to be at a function in Gulf Shores on Saturday; safe to stay there and leave Sunday morning or do I need to look to head north Saturday night?

I'll be down there too, from Saturday to Monday. I think you're pretty safe at that point, unless there is a panic or something.

[Commercecomet24]

You should be good.

I know it's early but what chance do you give it to enter the gulf and impact The Mississippi gulf coast? Thanks for all the info

[SheltonChoked]

Move to a coast - they will eventually chase you down. Took 16 years, but then I was hit by 2 storms in a month last Sept/Oct.

You don't have to even be that close to a coast....

[ScoobaDawg]

I know it's early but what chance do you give it to enter the gulf and impact The Mississippi gulf coast? Thanks for all the info

Wait until tomm or more likely thurs... Models are waiting to see how strong the trough is and how soon it will turn North. Plus it hasn't really started turning north much.. so a lot is up in the air..

[Commercecomet24]

Wait until tomm or more likely thurs... Models are waiting to see how strong the trough is and how soon it will turn North. Plus it hasn't really started turning north much.. so a lot is up in the air..

Thanks appreciate y'all!

[ScoobaDawg]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaueFollowing

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Eye continues to warm now +20?C ... if convection flares or clouds cool (more pink) then Hurricane #Irma should reach 200 mph.

[RocketDawg]

That'll tear up an umbrella.

Not the really good handmade British ones. **

[RocketDawg]

Fun fact. Launching balloons every 6 hours from all sites costs the NWS about $42,000 extra each day they do it. I wish they could do that permanently, but the NWS would need an extra 15 million.

And that's not a lot of money from a government perspective. The NWS needs to be funded better.