Hurricane Irma

[TheRef]

Alright, it's finally time to bring this up to the board. Hurricane Irma is officially a Category 5 hurricane and still looks to impact the US Mainland. South Florida needs to be preparing their Hurricane kits and starting to work on prepping their homes for an evacuation. She's currently moving at 14 MPH due West with sustained winds of 175 MPH. She is a very strong Category 5 storm. Here's the latest NHC cone (another will be coming out at 11 AM CDT).



Now one thing you notice is that the Southern half of the storm will impact a lot of the Caribbean as it moseys through. However, the lowest I think Irma drops in intensity from this is to a Cat 4. The models agree with me on this, with a few even maintaining that she stays a Cat 5.



Now these models don't necessarily mean that it WILL be this strong, however the amount of consistency between the models means that it's very likely at this time.

The question a lot of people have at this time is "will Irma enter the Gulf". The answer is a little complicated at this time. If you look at what we call the "Spaghetti models" then you'll see what we have been seeing for the past 24-48 hours on Irma. The models seem to agree that Irma will get to about equal with Key West, FL then make an abrupt turn up the Eastern seaboard following the Gulf Stream. If this happens, there will be pretty significant impact not only in Florida, but in GA, SC, NC, and VA.



Will Irma impact college football during that time? More than likely. There will be some wet games, and some moved games. Irma is not something to mess around with. If she ends up making it into the Gulf, it will be devastating. Just a reminder, this will be the first Major hurricane to strike Florida since 2008. Almost 10 years of no major hurricane landfall for Florida, that streak may end this weekend.

[BrunswickDawg]

Because I am spaghetti model impaired - would Irma maintain intensity as it travels north along Florida or will it lose strength? Or, is it too early to tell. I assume it depends on if the eye makes landfall or if it stays over water.

[TheRef]

Because I am spaghetti model impaired - would Irma maintain intensity as it travels north along Florida or will it lose strength? Or, is it too early to tell. I assume it depends on if the eye makes landfall or if it stays over water.

She would decrease some just due to the shear from hitting the rough ground as opposed to the "smooth" water. This means that as Irma skirts the coast, she will decrease in strength. The more of Irma that is on land, the faster (theoretically) she will weaken.

[Mimi's Babies]

Alright, it's finally time to bring this up to the board. Hurricane Irma is officially a Category 5 hurricane and still looks to impact the US Mainland. South Florida needs to be preparing their Hurricane kits and starting to work on prepping their homes for an evacuation. She's currently moving at 14 MPH due West with sustained winds of 175 MPH. She is a very strong Category 5 storm. Here's the latest NHC cone (another will be coming out at 11 AM CDT).

<snip>

Now one thing you notice is that the Southern half of the storm will impact a lot of the Caribbean as it moseys through. However, the lowest I think Irma drops in intensity from this is to a Cat 4. The models agree with me on this, with a few even maintaining that she stays a Cat 5.

<snip>

Now these models don't necessarily mean that it WILL be this strong, however the amount of consistency between the models means that it's very likely at this time.

The question a lot of people have at this time is "will Irma enter the Gulf". The answer is a little complicated at this time. If you look at what we call the "Spaghetti models" then you'll see what we have been seeing for the past 24-48 hours on Irma. The models seem to agree that Irma will get to about equal with Key West, FL then make an abrupt turn up the Eastern seaboard following the Gulf Stream. If this happens, there will be pretty significant impact not only in Florida, but in GA, SC, NC, and VA.

<snip>

Will Irma impact college football during that time? More than likely. There will be some wet games, and some moved games. Irma is not something to mess around with. If she ends up making it into the Gulf, it will be devastating. Just a reminder, this will be the first Major hurricane to strike Florida since 2008. Almost 10 years of no major hurricane landfall for Florida, that streak may end this weekend.

Thanks for the info.....

[FISHDAWG]

thanks and keep the watch going ... I live on the beach in Biloxi and have more than just a passing interest in this beast

[DownwardDawg]

Great........

[msudawglb]

Yeah, I'm supposed to go Saturday to Kennedy Space Center which is on Florida's east coast. Supposed to stay there all next week. I've been watching Irma closely. My travel office is making a decision Thursday afternoon on whether they cancel the trip or not.

[Beaver]

The question a lot of people have at this time is "will Irma enter the Gulf". The answer is a little complicated at this time. If you look at what we call the "Spaghetti models" then you'll see what we have been seeing for the past 24-48 hours on Irma. The models seem to agree that Irma will get to about equal with Key West, FL then make an abrupt turn up the Eastern seaboard following the Gulf Stream. If she ends up making it into the Gulf, it will be devastating. Just a reminder, this will be the first Major hurricane to strike Florida since 2008. Almost 10 years of no major hurricane landfall for Florida, that streak may end this weekend.

All depends on the speed and strength of a shortwave trough that will move through the southern US. Obviously I'm worried about Florida, but I also feel bad for some of the Virgin Islands, Turks and Caicos, northern Puerto Rico and south/eastern Bahamas as they may experience cat 5 winds...

[WinningIsRelentless]

FEMA has already activated numerous USAR Task Force Teams across the country and they will start arriving in Puerito RICO and south FL as early as today.

[Indndawg]

Alright, it's finally time to bring this up to the board. Hurricane Irma is officially a Category 5 hurricane and still looks to impact the US Mainland. South Florida needs to be preparing their Hurricane kits and starting to work on prepping their homes for an evacuation. She's currently moving at 14 MPH due West with sustained winds of 175 MPH. She is a very strong Category 5 storm. Here's the latest NHC cone (another will be coming out at 11 AM CDT).

<snip>

Now one thing you notice is that the Southern half of the storm will impact a lot of the Caribbean as it moseys through. However, the lowest I think Irma drops in intensity from this is to a Cat 4. The models agree with me on this, with a few even maintaining that she stays a Cat 5.

<snip>

Now these models don't necessarily mean that it WILL be this strong, however the amount of consistency between the models means that it's very likely at this time.

The question a lot of people have at this time is "will Irma enter the Gulf". The answer is a little complicated at this time. If you look at what we call the "Spaghetti models" then you'll see what we have been seeing for the past 24-48 hours on Irma. The models seem to agree that Irma will get to about equal with Key West, FL then make an abrupt turn up the Eastern seaboard following the Gulf Stream. If this happens, there will be pretty significant impact not only in Florida, but in GA, SC, NC, and VA.

<snip>

Will Irma impact college football during that time? More than likely. There will be some wet games, and some moved games. Irma is not something to mess around with. If she ends up making it into the Gulf, it will be devastating. Just a reminder, this will be the first Major hurricane to strike Florida since 2008. Almost 10 years of no major hurricane landfall for Florida, that streak may end this weekend.

would turn into the Florida panhandle...we know what happened. I know modeling is better but I'd bet wary if I lived from Biloxi east

[TheRef]

So the latest update has come out and Irma has only gotten stronger. Sustained winds of 180 MPH were found. Irma has gone, what we call, full buzzsaw on satellite. With almost nothing to slow Irma down before landfall, the Caribbean will be hit the hardest. This is the strongest hurricane on record not in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf. With this in mind, if you are even CLOSE to the path of this storm, start executing your pre-evacuation plans. I wouldn't be surprised to see Evac orders within the next 36-48 hours for much of South Florida.

[starkvegasdawg]

Looks like some of the models may be trying to push back east ever so slightly. Even so, FL looks to get ripped apart. Chasing a hurricane is high on my to do list but I don't think I'm crazy enough to get in front of this thing. Right now it has winds equivalent to a mid range EF-4 tornado.

[Dental Dawg33]

It's going to be a bad one and I have a very bad feeling its going to thread the needle right in to the gulf. Also, I believe there is another storm forming right behind Irma?

[TheRef]

It's going to be a bad one and I have a very bad feeling its going to thread the needle right in to the gulf. Also, I believe there is another storm forming right behind Irma?

Yupp. We have TS Jose now. Following a similar path to Irma

[Statecoachingblows**]

Yupp. We have TS Jose now. Following a similar path to Irma

Does one in front of the other help/hurt development potential of the 2nd storm? I'm assuming Jose would go right through the same conducive waters thus strengthening too? Or does the first one sort of draw out all the energy?

[ScoobaDawg]

It's hard to call something so potentially deadly and destructive beautiful, but the power in the pictures of the storm are amazing especially from the new GOES16




Watch in the video the intense coloring blooming.... Shows it growing strong overnight.
http://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DI9XbqQXcAIkMKt.mp4


Closeup of the eye...
https://video.twimg.com/tweet_video/DI9Y4WoXUAAv6HB.mp4

[ScoobaDawg]

Yupp. We have TS Jose now. Following a similar path to Irma

and likely to have Katia in the gulf in the next day... which will be blocked from going north...so looks to sit and pour rain between Tampico and veracruz.

[gtowndawg]

Does one in front of the other help/hurt development potential of the 2nd storm? I'm assuming Jose would go right through the same conducive waters thus strengthening too? Or does the first one sort of draw out all the energy?

Great question. Ref?

[msbulldog]

Thanks for the info guys, keep updating, you may save some lives.

[ScoobaDawg]

Great question. Ref?

Ref can be more scientific and pull out SST charts and stuff likely but the accuweather report I just found says not really. Irma will churn up some cold water but water temps are only one of the parts that cause hurricanes to strengthen.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...antic/70002649


"Tropical Storm Jose will remain in an environment favorable for intensification with very little wind shear, or change in wind speed or direction with altitude, and dry air. "