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Latest track is out from NHC:
I still fully expect this storm to be a Cat 4 at landfall. Which means that we still will not have had a hurricane make US landfall as a Cat 5 since Hurricane Andrew. However, this storm is potentially MUCH worse than Andrew.
B.S. Geosciences, Professional Meteorology Concentration, Operational Emphasis
c/o 2015
Mississippi State University
@Norwoodwx
Leicester City FC Owner
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Originally Posted by
ScoobaDawg
New Euro model just ran and shifts landfall towards the middle keys... rides up the spine of fl and turns NW instead of curving back across FL. Will be very interesting to see how the NHC changes their view at the next update at 4pm
Do you have easy links to the models?
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Originally Posted by
TheRef
Latest track is out from NHC:
I still fully expect this storm to be a Cat 4 at landfall. Which means that we still will not have had a hurricane make US landfall as a Cat 5 since Hurricane Andrew. However, this storm is potentially MUCH worse than Andrew.
So landfall around Miami?
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Originally Posted by
confucius say
So landfall around Miami?
If it doesn't make landfall at Miami, it'll be pretty damn close.
B.S. Geosciences, Professional Meteorology Concentration, Operational Emphasis
c/o 2015
Mississippi State University
@Norwoodwx
Leicester City FC Owner
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Originally Posted by
BrunswickDawg
Do you have easy links to the models?
A good guide for tropical systems is http://www.tropicaltidbits.com
B.S. Geosciences, Professional Meteorology Concentration, Operational Emphasis
c/o 2015
Mississippi State University
@Norwoodwx
Leicester City FC Owner
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Originally Posted by
TheRef
Thanks Ref - good site
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Senior Member
Originally Posted by
TheRef
Thanks, good stuff
Wrap it in Maroon and White
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Fun thing with Tropical Tidbits is that you can live track the Hurricane Hunter missions and see their data as live as possible (10 minute intervals)
B.S. Geosciences, Professional Meteorology Concentration, Operational Emphasis
c/o 2015
Mississippi State University
@Norwoodwx
Leicester City FC Owner
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Senior Member
What's the latest best guesses from you guys?
Originally Posted by
TheRef
Fun thing with Tropical Tidbits is that you can live track the Hurricane Hunter missions and see their data as live as possible (10 minute intervals)
We
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Member
Heard its shifting west a little. Is this true? What are the chances it moves to the Gulf?
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It did shift a little West, yes. As in the center will trek its way through the Florida land and up through GA, NE AL, and TN. The setup in the Gulf is still not conducive to a landfall on the MS or AL gulf coast.
B.S. Geosciences, Professional Meteorology Concentration, Operational Emphasis
c/o 2015
Mississippi State University
@Norwoodwx
Leicester City FC Owner
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Originally Posted by
TheRef
It did shift a little West, yes. As in the center will trek its way through the Florida land and up through GA, NE AL, and TN. The setup in the Gulf is still not conducive to a landfall on the MS or AL gulf coast.
This one gave me the feeling of a Katrina when it was sitting over a week ago. If I recall correctly they had Katrina turning similarly to Irma but she never turned and kept churning right into gulf.
One thing no one really talked about was its slow movement and never speeding up to get caught by the front that went through. That's one thing I've been finding odd about this entire thing. All protections last week had the storm speeding up and turning, even though it remained at 15-16 mph. Not one word about the impacts of the storm not speeding up its forward pace. That's when I started prepping in New Orleans. Too many times/storms I've seen these clowns continue to watch/rely on the models(that incorporate speeding up) and not pay attention to the basic physics of motion, speed and inertia.
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Originally Posted by
RougeDawg
This one gave me the feeling of a Katrina when it was sitting over a week ago. If I recall correctly they had Katrina turning similarly to Irma but she never turned and kept churning right into gulf.
One thing no one really talked about was its slow movement and never speeding up to get caught by the front that went through. That's one thing I've been finding odd about this entire thing. All protections last week had the storm speeding up and turning, even though it remained at 15-16 mph. Not one word about the impacts of the storm not speeding up its forward pace. That's when I started prepping in New Orleans. Too many times/storms I've seen these clowns continue to watch/rely on the models(that incorporate speeding up) and not pay attention to the basic physics of motion, speed and inertia.
Agree 100%, this thing doesn't look like it's turning North anytime soon. I'll believe it when I see it.
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Originally Posted by
RougeDawg
This one gave me the feeling of a Katrina when it was sitting over a week ago. If I recall correctly they had Katrina turning similarly to Irma but she never turned and kept churning right into gulf.
One thing no one really talked about was its slow movement and never speeding up to get caught by the front that went through. That's one thing I've been finding odd about this entire thing. All protections last week had the storm speeding up and turning, even though it remained at 15-16 mph. Not one word about the impacts of the storm not speeding up its forward pace. That's when I started prepping in New Orleans. Too many times/storms I've seen these clowns continue to watch/rely on the models(that incorporate speeding up) and not pay attention to the basic physics of motion, speed and inertia.
The thing is this, the whole mid-latitude setup is WAYYYY different than for Katrina.
B.S. Geosciences, Professional Meteorology Concentration, Operational Emphasis
c/o 2015
Mississippi State University
@Norwoodwx
Leicester City FC Owner
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Originally Posted by
TheRef
The thing is this, the whole mid-latitude setup is WAYYYY different than for Katrina.
I believe that advances in technology and the ability to forecast have improved a pretty good bit since Katrina
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Originally Posted by
TimberBeast
Agree 100%, this thing doesn't look like it's turning North anytime soon. I'll believe it when I see it.
What are the chances of it regaining Category 5 strength if it enters the gulf?
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Originally Posted by
HSVDawg
What are the chances of it regaining Category 5 strength if it enters the gulf?
Depends on the amount of shear created from the Cuban mountains to the South and the effect in South Florida and the Everglades.
B.S. Geosciences, Professional Meteorology Concentration, Operational Emphasis
c/o 2015
Mississippi State University
@Norwoodwx
Leicester City FC Owner
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Shifted further west again unh? Coming up west coast of Florida now is what I'm seeing.
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Originally Posted by
confucius say
Shifted further west again unh? Coming up west coast of Florida now is what I'm seeing.
Well, I'm holding out for now in Brunswick. The shift west has gotten us almost out of harms way - or at least the nastiest of what should be a TS by the time it reaches Ga. I was going to Valdosta, but they will get hit harder than us right now.
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Originally Posted by
confucius say
Shifted further west again unh? Coming up west coast of Florida now is what I'm seeing.
Yes, and the latest is that it will once again become a Cat 5 at Key West (according to a CNN bulletin).
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