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Thread: Hurricane Irma

  1. #61
    Official Elitedawg Weather Forecaster TheRef's Avatar
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    Latest track is out from NHC:



    I still fully expect this storm to be a Cat 4 at landfall. Which means that we still will not have had a hurricane make US landfall as a Cat 5 since Hurricane Andrew. However, this storm is potentially MUCH worse than Andrew.
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    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ScoobaDawg View Post
    New Euro model just ran and shifts landfall towards the middle keys... rides up the spine of fl and turns NW instead of curving back across FL. Will be very interesting to see how the NHC changes their view at the next update at 4pm
    Do you have easy links to the models?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRef View Post
    Latest track is out from NHC:



    I still fully expect this storm to be a Cat 4 at landfall. Which means that we still will not have had a hurricane make US landfall as a Cat 5 since Hurricane Andrew. However, this storm is potentially MUCH worse than Andrew.
    So landfall around Miami?

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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    So landfall around Miami?
    If it doesn't make landfall at Miami, it'll be pretty damn close.
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  5. #65
    Official Elitedawg Weather Forecaster TheRef's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    Do you have easy links to the models?
    A good guide for tropical systems is http://www.tropicaltidbits.com
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    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRef View Post
    A good guide for tropical systems is http://www.tropicaltidbits.com
    Thanks Ref - good site

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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRef View Post
    A good guide for tropical systems is http://www.tropicaltidbits.com
    Thanks, good stuff
    Wrap it in Maroon and White

  8. #68
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    Fun thing with Tropical Tidbits is that you can live track the Hurricane Hunter missions and see their data as live as possible (10 minute intervals)
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    What's the latest best guesses from you guys?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheRef View Post
    Fun thing with Tropical Tidbits is that you can live track the Hurricane Hunter missions and see their data as live as possible (10 minute intervals)
    We

  10. #70
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    Heard its shifting west a little. Is this true? What are the chances it moves to the Gulf?

  11. #71
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    It did shift a little West, yes. As in the center will trek its way through the Florida land and up through GA, NE AL, and TN. The setup in the Gulf is still not conducive to a landfall on the MS or AL gulf coast.
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  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRef View Post
    It did shift a little West, yes. As in the center will trek its way through the Florida land and up through GA, NE AL, and TN. The setup in the Gulf is still not conducive to a landfall on the MS or AL gulf coast.
    This one gave me the feeling of a Katrina when it was sitting over a week ago. If I recall correctly they had Katrina turning similarly to Irma but she never turned and kept churning right into gulf.

    One thing no one really talked about was its slow movement and never speeding up to get caught by the front that went through. That's one thing I've been finding odd about this entire thing. All protections last week had the storm speeding up and turning, even though it remained at 15-16 mph. Not one word about the impacts of the storm not speeding up its forward pace. That's when I started prepping in New Orleans. Too many times/storms I've seen these clowns continue to watch/rely on the models(that incorporate speeding up) and not pay attention to the basic physics of motion, speed and inertia.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by RougeDawg View Post
    This one gave me the feeling of a Katrina when it was sitting over a week ago. If I recall correctly they had Katrina turning similarly to Irma but she never turned and kept churning right into gulf.

    One thing no one really talked about was its slow movement and never speeding up to get caught by the front that went through. That's one thing I've been finding odd about this entire thing. All protections last week had the storm speeding up and turning, even though it remained at 15-16 mph. Not one word about the impacts of the storm not speeding up its forward pace. That's when I started prepping in New Orleans. Too many times/storms I've seen these clowns continue to watch/rely on the models(that incorporate speeding up) and not pay attention to the basic physics of motion, speed and inertia.
    Agree 100%, this thing doesn't look like it's turning North anytime soon. I'll believe it when I see it.

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by RougeDawg View Post
    This one gave me the feeling of a Katrina when it was sitting over a week ago. If I recall correctly they had Katrina turning similarly to Irma but she never turned and kept churning right into gulf.

    One thing no one really talked about was its slow movement and never speeding up to get caught by the front that went through. That's one thing I've been finding odd about this entire thing. All protections last week had the storm speeding up and turning, even though it remained at 15-16 mph. Not one word about the impacts of the storm not speeding up its forward pace. That's when I started prepping in New Orleans. Too many times/storms I've seen these clowns continue to watch/rely on the models(that incorporate speeding up) and not pay attention to the basic physics of motion, speed and inertia.
    The thing is this, the whole mid-latitude setup is WAYYYY different than for Katrina.
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    Quote Originally Posted by TheRef View Post
    The thing is this, the whole mid-latitude setup is WAYYYY different than for Katrina.
    I believe that advances in technology and the ability to forecast have improved a pretty good bit since Katrina

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    Quote Originally Posted by TimberBeast View Post
    Agree 100%, this thing doesn't look like it's turning North anytime soon. I'll believe it when I see it.
    What are the chances of it regaining Category 5 strength if it enters the gulf?

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by HSVDawg View Post
    What are the chances of it regaining Category 5 strength if it enters the gulf?
    Depends on the amount of shear created from the Cuban mountains to the South and the effect in South Florida and the Everglades.
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    Shifted further west again unh? Coming up west coast of Florida now is what I'm seeing.

  19. #79
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    Shifted further west again unh? Coming up west coast of Florida now is what I'm seeing.
    Well, I'm holding out for now in Brunswick. The shift west has gotten us almost out of harms way - or at least the nastiest of what should be a TS by the time it reaches Ga. I was going to Valdosta, but they will get hit harder than us right now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by confucius say View Post
    Shifted further west again unh? Coming up west coast of Florida now is what I'm seeing.
    Yes, and the latest is that it will once again become a Cat 5 at Key West (according to a CNN bulletin).

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