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Thread: FG kicker situation

  1. #21
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thf24 View Post
    DePasquale was solid for most of his career as well. We haven't had an All-Conference deadeye type in a very long time (not exactly common for anyone... remember Bama's kicking situation a few years ago?), but let's not pretend like our place kicking situation has been a steaming pile of shit going on decades. It's simply a hard position to evaluate for anyone, especially since you can usually only afford to allot, absolute best case, a few scholarships to it. Has Mullen not put enough emphasis on it in the past? Very possibly. Hopefully he's coming around on that since he's now shelling out a scholarship for it, but again, let's not pretend like the position has been a complete void throughout his tenure.
    It is amazing what making or missing a clutch game winning kick does for people's memories about the efficiency of a kicker. I think the biggest argument you could make is that our kickers have not had the range to attempt long field goals and that has hampered our decision making, but let's look at career FG%:

    Brian Hazelwood made 58.9% of his FG at State - but is revered for '97 & '98 game winners.
    Scott Westerfield hit 71.4%
    Westin Graves hit 68.4%
    Devin Bell hit 63.6%
    Derek D hit 76.2%
    Sobiesk hit 75% - His leaving after '14 with 2 years of eligibility really hurt.

    So all of Mullen's kickers were statistically better than Hazelwood and half were better than Westerfield (probably recognized as our best ever).

    The big issue was not having someone who could back up Graves so he kicked all year injured.

  2. #22
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew View Post
    09 - Depasquale 10/12 Long 48

    10 - Depasquale 10/12 Long 43

    11 - Depasquale 12/18 Long 42

    12 - Bell 14/21 Long 47

    13 - Bell 6/14 Long 40

    14 - Sobiesk 12/14 Long 45

    15 - Graves 15/18 Long 44

    16 - Graves 11/19 Long 48

    Like the previous poster said we may not have had the All SEC kicker but to say our kickers have always sucked is another myth. We've been bad 2 yrs 2013 & 2016. The problem is we don't have that last second FG to remember like Westerfield or Hazelwood to forget all the other misses they had. Kicking can be better but we haven't consistently trotted out guys that's missing FG's left & right either.
    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    It is amazing what making or missing a clutch game winning kick does for people's memories about the efficiency of a kicker. I think the biggest argument you could make is that our kickers have not had the range to attempt long field goals and that has hampered our decision making, but let's look at career FG%:

    Brian Hazelwood made 58.9% of his FG at State - but is revered for '97 & '98 game winners.
    Scott Westerfield hit 71.4%
    Westin Graves hit 68.4%
    Devin Bell hit 63.6%
    Derek D hit 76.2%
    Sobiesk hit 75% - His leaving after '14 with 2 years of eligibility really hurt.

    So all of Mullen's kickers were statistically better than Hazelwood and half were better than Westerfield (probably recognized as our best ever).

    The big issue was not having someone who could back up Graves so he kicked all year injured.
    Man - we were both working the stats at the same time!

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Really Clark? View Post
    Sobesik was 3rd in the league in 2014 and Graves was 2nd in 2015
    How dare you bring ACTUAL FACTS to dispute a message board narrative!!!

  4. #24
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    It is amazing what making or missing a clutch game winning kick does for people's memories about the efficiency of a kicker. I think the biggest argument you could make is that our kickers have not had the range to attempt long field goals and that has hampered our decision making, but let's look at career FG%:

    Brian Hazelwood made 58.9% of his FG at State - but is revered for '97 & '98 game winners.
    Scott Westerfield hit 71.4%
    Westin Graves hit 68.4%
    Devin Bell hit 63.6%
    Derek D hit 76.2%
    Sobiesk hit 75% - His leaving after '14 with 2 years of eligibility really hurt.

    So all of Mullen's kickers were statistically better than Hazelwood and half were better than Westerfield (probably recognized as our best ever).

    The big issue was not having someone who could back up Graves so he kicked all year injured.
    To the point about range- that is a big deal because if we have to get to the 20 yard line to get in field goal range as opposed to the 30-35 it still makes it difficult to score as many points because our offense has to get deeper into the opponent's territory and run more plays potentially with time running down.

    And that lack of range partly explains why Dan's kickers don't have apt of memorable game winners. A couple of times they missed field goals that were at the edge of their range like Sobiesk in 2013 Egg Bowl and Bell against LSU in 2015.

  5. #25
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    To the point about range- that is a big deal because if we have to get to the 20 yard line to get in field goal range as opposed to the 30-35 it still makes it difficult to score as many points because our offense has to get deeper into the opponent's territory and run more plays potentially with time running down.

    And that lack of range partly explains why Dan's kickers don't have apt of memorable game winners. A couple of times they missed field goals that were at the edge of their range like Sobiesk in 2013 Egg Bowl and Bell against LSU in 2015.
    I don't disagree - I just didn't expound on that comment. But, even if they had the range, I don't know that long-game winners would be something Dan would attempt with regularity anyway - and we seem to have rarely been in that situation under Dan. Whereas under Jackie, it seemed like 3/4th of our wins came on miracle field goals -which is definitely an exaggeration - but it sure felt like we were always under the gun with a long FG needing to be made.

  6. #26
    Super Moderator CadaverDawg's Avatar
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    Look, y'all can bring up those stats if you want, and I get it, the stats were good for a few. But how many times were we forced to abort a potential big FG bc we had no confidence our kicker could make it or even get it to the end zone due to no leg strength? Yall didn't expand on Devon Bell's % when he was brought in to kick anything deeper than 40 yards that one year, and he couldn't even keep it in the stadium. We had to bring in an inconsistent power leg, bc our main K couldn't kick a 40+ yarder...let that sink in. In the SEC.

    Stats can be misleading. We've had some decent kickers that can make a decent percentage OF THE KICKS THEYRE ALLOWED TO TRY....but it has been quite a while since we trotted a guy out there that we felt super confident he was going to make everything under 40 yards. And in this league, and the teams we're needing every advantage against to pull an upset....we need to be pretty automatic inside 40, and have a guy with the leg strength to at least attempt a 50+ yarder with a chance to get the ball to the goal post.

    I know that isn't sunshiny enough for some....If y'all want to use stats to hide the fact that y'all closed your eyes every time a kicker came out in a big spot the last several years, that's your choice.


    And again, when year 7-8 features a K that can't make an extra point....does it actually matter what years 1-6 featured? It's an issue either way. Not sure why we need to sugar coat it. The best coaches in the country demand excellence & fix key issues....Mullen should have this issue fixed by now, and the fact that he doesn't seem more focused, serious, or concerned about it should be concerning to us as fans imo. You think Saban would have that response to a kicker question if his guy had missed a chip shot to lose to USA last year? Mullen is a good coach, and I just want to see him demand excellence so we can take that next step....our kicking game could be the difference in 7 & 9 wins this year....or hell even 8 & 10 or 9 & 11. Yall may be cool with that, but it pisses me off bc it's one guy so it should be relatively an easy fix. Trade our K out with any other SEC kicker last year, and we likely win 8 games....that's a problem.
    Last edited by CadaverDawg; 08-18-2017 at 09:54 AM.

  7. #27
    That New Coach - That's better than the Old Coach
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    Quote Originally Posted by CadaverDawg View Post
    Look, y'all can bring up those stats if you want, and I get it, the stats were good for a few. But how many times were we forced to abort a potential big FG bc we had no confidence our kicker could make it or even get it to the end zone due to no leg strength? Yall didn't expand on Devon Bell's % when he was brought in to kick anything deeper than 40 yards that one year, and he couldn't even keep it in the stadium. We had to bring in an inconsistent power leg, bc our main K couldn't kick a 40+ yarder...let that sink in. In the SEC.

    Stats can be misleading. We've had some decent kickers that can make a decent percentage OF THE KICKS THEYRE ALLOWED TO TRY....but it has been quite a while since we trotted a guy out there that we felt super confident he was going to make everything under 40 yards. And in this league, and the teams we're needing every advantage against to pull an upset....we need to be pretty automatic inside 40, and have a guy with the leg strength to at least attempt a 50+ yarder with a chance to get the ball to the goal post.

    I know that isn't sunshiny enough for some....If y'all want to use stats to hide the fact that y'all closed your eyes every time a kicker came out in a big spot the last several years, that's your choice.


    And again, when year 7-8 features a K that can't make an extra point....does it actually matter what years 1-6 featured? It's an issue either way. Not sure why we need to sugar coat it. The best coaches in the country demand excellence & fix key issues....Mullen should have this issue fixed by now, and the fact that he doesn't seem more focused, serious, or concerned about it should be concerning to us as fans imo. You think Saban would have that response to a kicker question if his guy had missed a chip shot to lose to USA last year? Mullen is a good coach, and I just want to see him demand excellence so we can take that next step....our kicking game could be the difference in 7 & 9 wins this year....or hell even 8 & 10 or 9 & 11. Yall may be cool with that, but it pisses me off bc it's one guy so it should be relatively an easy fix. Trade our K out with any other SEC kicker last year, and we likely win 8 games....that's a problem.
    Nobody is trying to use stats to hide behind anything. Even Brunswick acknowledge that those kickers didn't have the biggest legs. On the flipside we could say the same thing about you guys letting those few big kicks that the dawgs of yester year made block out those short kicks they missed. Maybe if they make that 38yd late in the 3rd qtr then he doesn't have to attempt that long game winner. Again no one has said our kicking has been lights out or even great but to act like it has flat out sucked is wrong too. All we ever hear is if we can get a consistent kicker inside 40-45yds I'd be happy. Well those stats that you're dismissing is saying for most of the time Mullen has been here that's exactly what we've had. Yea of course I want an accurate kicker who can also hit that kick from 55 but shit the majority of college football wants that.

  8. #28
    Senior Member Prediction? Pain.'s Avatar
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    Damn it, people. Now you've piqued my curiosity about FG stats, of all things.

    Comparing Mullen's kickers' percentages to kickers of yesteryear is interesting stuff. (And I was especially interested to see that Hazelwood's numbers were so low.) But those raw stats don't give me any controls to compare them to.

    So I looked at SEC-game-only FG% stats for all SEC teams during Mullen's tenure and lined them up to see where we landed. What I found was that, on average, SEC teams' FG kicking is all over the map.

    Since 2009, every SEC team has finished in the Top 3 of the league in FG% as least once. In the same span, every SEC team but one (Auburn) has finished 10th or worse at least once. And 9 of the 14 teams in the SEC have finished 10th or worse multiple times in that span. (Most years -- with 2009 and 2011 being the only real exceptions -- the FG% of teams ranked 10th or worse started dropping below 70%.)

    Really, there have been only five or six consistently average-or-better FG-kicking SEC teams since 2009: Auburn, U. Miss, LSU, UGA, Kentucky, and Missouri. Auburn and U. Miss. are the only teams whose average rank in the conference is 5th or higher in those years. (4.6 for Auburn, 4.8 for U. Miss.) LSU and UGA both average 6th or higher. And Kentucky's and Missouri's average rank was 7th or higher. For every other SEC team -- more than half the conference, in other words -- their average ranks were between 7.5 and 8.5 in the SEC.

    So even though almost every team team in the league has had at least one stellar year of FG kicking to go along with at least one year of awful FG kicking, no SEC team has averaged a Top 3 finish in the league since 2009, and no SEC team has averaged 9th or lower either.

    So in context, Mullen's kickers have been par for the course in the SEC, meaning that they've been up and down. Taking the jump from there to the consistency that Auburn, LSU, U.Miss, and UGA have shown is obviously the goal. (Note, though, that LSU's been struggling of late. Finishes of 10th and 12th in 2014 and 2015, and 8th in 2016.) But it looks like Mullen's not alone in being unable to figure out how to make that leap.

    None of this addresses distance, of course. Those stats are available, but I'm gonna pass on crunching them and figuring out how to integrate them with the rest of this jibber jabber.

    Here are MSU's SEC-game-only FG% ranks among SEC teams for each year of Mullen's tenure, if your interested:

    2009 - 3rd
    2010 - 7th
    2011 - 7th
    2012 - 11th
    2013 - 14th
    2014 - 7th
    2015 - 6th
    2016 - 13th
    Last edited by Prediction? Pain.; 08-18-2017 at 02:01 PM.

  9. #29
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    Good stuff Prediction Pain.
    I went to a High School that has produced some well known kickers historically - guys who never missed in high school, had the leg for 45+, got full rides to D1 schools, and played for and won national titles. I would put any of them in a game winning situation without question. All are fairly well thought of in their college careers. When I went and pulled their %, I was shocked:

    Rex Robinson (UGA, 1977-1980) 66.7%
    Scott Sisson (GT, 1989-1992) 68.2%
    Tim Montz (OM, 93'-'96) 64.8%
    Hap Hines (UGA, '96-'99) 70%

    Your memory really can play tricks on you sometimes about kicking games. If those guys missed the chip, but hit the game winner, they live in infamy!

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain. View Post
    2016 - 13th
    Excellent post Pain. My point is right above. We were 2nd to last in FG kicking last year and it takes Mullen ten seconds to even remember if we attempted a FG during a scrimmage. Then he remembers that we didn't even attempt one yet still no alarm goes off in his head that maybe he should make that more of a priority. He gives absolutely zero shits about it to the point he says he's not even gonna know who is kicking in the 1st game till 30 minutes before. That is unacceptable when the season before we were 13th in the league in kicking and we absolutely lost 2-3 games because of it. I was wrong to say we have had shitty kickers the entire time Mullen has been here. I am not wrong to say Mullen gives no ****s about it and displays no want to in terms of fixing it. I am a big Mullen supporter but his aloofness towards kicking I can't get down with. Special teams are HUGE and I won't sit quietly with a HC that gives no ****s about it.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ifyouonlyknew View Post
    09 - Depasquale 10/12 Long 48

    10 - Depasquale 10/12 Long 43

    11 - Depasquale 12/18 Long 42

    12 - Bell 14/21 Long 47

    13 - Bell 6/14 Long 40

    14 - Sobiesk 12/14 Long 45

    15 - Graves 15/18 Long 44

    16 - Graves 11/19 Long 48

    Like the previous poster said we may not have had the All SEC kicker but to say our kickers have always sucked is another myth. We've been bad 2 yrs 2013 & 2016. The problem is we don't have that last second FG to remember like Westerfield or Hazelwood to forget all the other misses they had. Kicking can be better but we haven't consistently trotted out guys that's missing FG's left & right either.
    Please don't let facts get in the way of a good argument.

  12. #32
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    NFL History - Points Leaders
    Points Leaders
    RK PLAYER PTS
    1 Morten Andersen 2,544
    2 Gary Anderson 2,434
    3 ADAM VINATIERI 2,378


    Why kickers??????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????It is who scores points............................................

  13. #33
    Senior Member ShotgunDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Really Clark? View Post
    Sobesik was 3rd in the league in 2014 and Graves was 2nd in 2015
    That's because neither attempted anything over about 32 yards because their legs were too weak.

    You can't evaluate kickers by percentage of makes in the same way you can't evaluate a short stop on errors when both are in large part determined by range. Guys with larger ranges will also likely have more errors.

  14. #34
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    Good stuff Prediction Pain.
    I went to a High School that has produced some well known kickers historically - guys who never missed in high school, had the leg for 45+, got full rides to D1 schools, and played for and won national titles. I would put any of them in a game winning situation without question. All are fairly well thought of in their college careers. When I went and pulled their %, I was shocked:

    Rex Robinson (UGA, 1977-1980) 66.7%
    Scott Sisson (GT, 1989-1992) 68.2%
    Tim Montz (OM, 93'-'96) 64.8%
    Hap Hines (UGA, '96-'99) 70%

    Your memory really can play tricks on you sometimes about kicking games. If those guys missed the chip, but hit the game winner, they live in infamy!
    I imagine that placekicking like most things in football has improved a lot as far as technique goes since the 1990's. For example there are some guys in the Pro Football HOF like Joe Namath that have more INT's than TD passes in their career. If Namath did that today, he would be on the bench.

    People can say- "Oh wow our FG percentage was just as good as Westerfield back in the day or whatever". But the reality is there are a few kickers like Gary Wunderlich of Ole Miss who are kicking FG's at a clip of 95.7% last year. What was good in 1999 may be 13th in the SEC today.

    The other thing about FG% is it is a naturally small sample size so one miss can have a big impact on the data. I would imagine that FG% alone is not the best indicator of kicking talent. Someone probably needs to come up with a formula which measures FG%, distance/range and then maybe some kind of score for "clutch FG's made". A FG made in the fourth quarter to win the Egg Bowl is much more impactful and pressure packed than a field goal during the second quarter of Alcorn State when we're up 21-0. People can say- "Oh, that's just your memory", but I do think there is something to be said for making game winning field goals and I don't think it should be belittled because one guy made them and another didn't and they had similar FG%'s.

  15. #35
    Senior Member Really Clark?'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShotgunDawg View Post
    That's because neither attempted anything over about 32 yards because their legs were too weak.

    You can't evaluate kickers by percentage of makes in the same way you can't evaluate a short stop on errors when both are in large part determined by range. Guys with larger ranges will also likely have more errors.
    Graves was 3-5 from 40+ in 2015 but if they are attempting an average amount and not just a few to skew the stats, then percentage made is absolutely a good stat. How are you disqualifying short FG by putting more emphasis on range? Who was it? Westerfield in 2000 who missed like half of 30-39 traders? But that doesn't count as much because they are shorter?

  16. #36
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Really Clark? View Post
    Graves was 3-5 from 40+ in 2015 but if they are attempting an average amount and not just a few to skew the stats, then percentage made is absolutely a good stat. How are you disqualifying short FG by putting more emphasis on range? Who was it? Westerfield in 2000 who missed like half of 30-39 traders? But that doesn't count as much because they are shorter?
    http://www.foxsports.com/college-foo...d-player-stats

    No idea how accurate this is, but this says that he was 7/11 from 30-39 in 2000. Westerfield only attempted 1/1 from 40-49 this season which kind of shows my point about sample size.

    Interestingly enough he attempted very few from short range (29 and in) this season.

  17. #37
    Senior Member Prediction? Pain.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Todd4State View Post
    Someone probably needs to come up with a formula which measures FG%, distance/range and then maybe some kind of score for "clutch FG's made."
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feist2009

    Look at the "Field Goal Efficiency" stat. Going by that metric, we were great in 2009 and 2015, awful in 2013 and 2016, and slightly on the poor side of mediocre in Mullen's four other years. That actually corresponds pretty well with the raw stats from SEC play that I found earlier. (Didn't compare our national advanced-stat ranks with those of our SEC brethren, though, so I don't know if the teams are all as clustered together there, too.)

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    In the scrimmage, the kickers were 6/7 from beyond 50 yards. I will take that! Hopefully that translates to 90%+ 40 yards and in.

  19. #39
    Senior Member Todd4State's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Prediction? Pain. View Post
    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feist2009

    Look at the "Field Goal Efficiency" stat. Going by that metric, we were great in 2009 and 2015, awful in 2013 and 2016, and slightly on the poor side of mediocre in Mullen's four other years. That actually corresponds pretty well with the raw stats from SEC play that I found earlier. (Didn't compare our national advanced-stat ranks with those of our SEC brethren, though, so I don't know if the teams are all as clustered together there, too.)
    Good stuff! Thank you for that! I figured that someone came up with something with all of the factors I mentioned.

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