National Championship Odds (Perspective)

[Gutter Cobreh]

Read an article that mentioned there are only 4 current NCAA head football coaches who have won a National Championship!

Saban (4)
Meyer (3)
Swinney (1)
Fisher (1)

These four coaches have claimed the last 6 championships, 8 of the last 9, and 9 of the past 11. Chizik and Miles are the only coaches that have pulled a title away from one of them (really only two of them).

I recognize the Saban/Meyer effect, but realistically what are the chances of expecting your team is good enough to win it all?

There are 130 teams in the FBS. For the sake of debating, throw out teams from the MAC, C-USA, Sun Belt, and Mountain West as they would be a long shot to reach the title game. You are still left with 80 teams that play in a conference that would present them with the best opportunity to reach the title game. Of those 80 teams, 7 have won the last 11 championships. Going back further, the same 9 teams have won the last 15 championships.

While every fan goes from year to year and talks about the chances of their team being good enough to make it to the end, what are realistic goals? In looking at the numbers, winning a natty doesn't seem realistic. I would say the conference championship game is realistic, but with the case of any SEC West team to reach the SEC title game you have to go through Saban. If you get through his team, wouldn't that make you think you're good enough to win it all?

I know there are some level-headed folks on this board, so from your perspective - what constitutes a successful year? Is it reaching the title game, reaching the SEC championship game, overall number of wins, beating certain teams within the conference, etc.

[dawgman15]

A successful year in my mind is us beating LSU, AUB or BAM, UGA, Ole Piss, Kentucky, Arky, A&M, and all out of conference. I want to see a repeat of the 14 season with the exception of losing to TSUN and a bowl win

[Johnson85]

Read an article that mentioned there are only 4 current NCAA head football coaches who have won a National Championship!

Saban (4)
Meyer (3)
Swinney (1)
Fisher (1)

These four coaches have claimed the last 6 championships, 8 of the last 9, and 9 of the past 11. Chizik and Miles are the only coaches that have pulled a title away from one of them (really only two of them).

I recognize the Saban/Meyer effect, but realistically what are the chances of expecting your team is good enough to win it all?

There are 130 teams in the FBS. For the sake of debating, throw out teams from the MAC, C-USA, Sun Belt, and Mountain West as they would be a long shot to reach the title game. You are still left with 80 teams that play in a conference that would present them with the best opportunity to reach the title game. Of those 80 teams, 7 have won the last 11 championships. Going back further, the same 9 teams have won the last 15 championships.

While every fan goes from year to year and talks about the chances of their team being good enough to make it to the end, what are realistic goals? In looking at the numbers, winning a natty doesn't seem realistic. I would say the conference championship game is realistic, but with the case of any SEC West team to reach the SEC title game you have to go through Saban. If you get through his team, wouldn't that make you think you're good enough to win it all?

I know there are some level-headed folks on this board, so from your perspective - what constitutes a successful year? Is it reaching the title game, reaching the SEC championship game, overall number of wins, beating certain teams within the conference, etc.

Absolute definition of successful - the level of success where you are not getting closer to getting fired. 8-4 regular season. That is 4-0 OOC (including now one power 5 team or BYU) and 4-4 SEC (presumably wins over UK and UM, a loss to Bama, and then winning 2 out of 5 against A&M, LSU, Auburn, Arkansas, and the other East opponent.

The contextual definition depends on where we are versus where other SEC teams and OOC teams are in their cycle. In 2018, we could have a season where O struggles, Sumlin has his final implosion, UM has imploded, Arkansas has taken a step back, and Auburn has plateaued, while we are at a peak of our cycle. A year like that, maybe we really need to go 9-3 to be considered a successful season (or maybe even 10-2 if OOC is weak and the other SECE team is weak, although it's obviously extremely unlikely all the cards would fall in our favor like that).

Last year, going 6-6 would have been a successful season. Weak spot in our cycle, new QB, leadership void, new DC.

But eventually your contextualized success measure has to be around your absolute measure, and the more you fall below that and the later in your tenure it is, the more likely a job loss.

[BrunswickDawg]

Absolute definition of successful - the level of success where you are not getting closer to getting fired. 8-4 regular season. That is 4-0 OOC (including now one power 5 team or BYU) and 4-4 SEC (presumably wins over UK and UM, a loss to Bama, and then winning 2 out of 5 against A&M, LSU, Auburn, Arkansas, and the other East opponent.

The contextual definition depends on where we are versus where other SEC teams and OOC teams are in their cycle. In 2018, we could have a season where O struggles, Sumlin has his final implosion, UM has imploded, Arkansas has taken a step back, and Auburn has plateaued, while we are at a peak of our cycle. A year like that, maybe we really need to go 9-3 to be considered a successful season (or maybe even 10-2 if OOC is weak and the other SECE team is weak, although it's obviously extremely unlikely all the cards would fall in our favor like that).

Last year, going 6-6 would have been a successful season. Weak spot in our cycle, new QB, leadership void, new DC.

But eventually your contextualized success measure has to be around your absolute measure, and the more you fall below that and the later in your tenure it is, the more likely a job loss.

2018 East opponent is Florida in DWS, a place of nightmares for UF in the past (we are 3-1 in Starkville since SEC expansion)

[Gutter Cobreh]

But eventually your contextualized success measure has to be around your absolute measure, and the more you fall below that and the later in your tenure it is, the more likely a job loss.

Kind of like Mark Richt at UGA?

I hadn't thought of it your way, but you're probably correct. As your absolute continues to increase though, wouldn't that decrease the curve within the contextual? Essentially, isn't that how Bama rose to dominance under Saban? Hasn't he has essentially eliminated the contextual to the point where it is only absolute? Swinney and Fisher essentially rode their great cycle to a championship, but also at the same time didn't they establish a new baseline for what the fanbase considers "successful"?

2018 East opponent is Florida in DWS, a place of nightmares for UF in the past (we are 3-1 in Starkville since SEC expansion)

I wouldn't sleep on UF, regardless of what has happened in the past as they seem to be trending in the right direction under McElwain.