Record Odds vs top 3

[Hypnodawg]

I was just looking at the CBS poll and thinking how much better could our record be in the east. More to the point what are the odds on our hardest opponents. I was already coding this up so figured I'd run these numbers testing it. Basically I think we'd have a better shot at 3-0 in the east than 2-1, in the West.

West
1. Alabama-1%
9. Auburn-20%
12. LSU - 30%
East
15. Georgia - 40%
16. Florida - 40%
26. Tennessee - 50%

Record Odds: West East
3-0 0.06% 8%
2-1 6.3% 32%
1-2 38.2% 42%
0-3 55.44% 18%

Here's the MATLAB code for degenerates or those that are bored.
p=[.4 .4 .5];
P=p.'*p;
p30=prod(p)
p21=sum(P([2,3,6])-prod(p))
p12=sum(p-P([2,6,3])-P([3,2,6])+prod(p))
p03=prod(1-p)

[bostondawg]

Good stuff. As an aside: this assumes an independent probability model, while a conditional probability model could account for "momentum." As in, if we beat LSU, I think our probability vs. Auburn increases.
Stated more formally: P(beating Auburn|beat LSU) > P(beating Auburn)