In-state recruiting for each SEC state, by the numbers

[bostondawg]

I made a comment the other day on a thread, something to the flavor of "Mississippi doesn't produce enough high school talent to support two SEC schools." I started thinking about it, and decided to do a quick calculation to see, and I thought I'd share.

For my purposes, I'm calling a blue-chip prospect a 4 or 5 star player, as according to 247's rating.

Number of prospects over the last three recruiting classes:
[State: 2017, 2016, 2015 = TOTAL (Avg. Per Year)]
AL: 14, 9, 11 = 34 (11.33)
MS: 6, 10, 11 = 27 (9)
LA: 10, 19, 15 = 44 (14.67)
GA: 30, 27, 31 = 88 (29.33)
TX: 40, 46, 50 = 136 (45.33)
AR: 3, 3, 6 = 12 (4)
MO: 4, 3, 4 = 11 (3.67)
SC: 4, 6, 6, = 16 (5.33)
FL: 38, 43, 46 (42.33)
TN: 13, 9, 11 = 33 (11)
KY: 1, 3, 2 = 6 (2)

Now, let's pretend that those prospects more-or-less get distributed among each state's power 5 schools. Obviously this isn't the case, but we need to normalize those numbers by how many schools in the state are competing for these prospects.
Number of P5 schools in each state: 2 in AL, 2 in MS, 1 in LA, 2 in GA, 5 in TX, 1 in AR, 1 in MO, 2 in SC, 3 in FL, 2 in TN, 2 in KY

So how many of those prospects per year could be shared by each P5 school?
Number of 4/5* prospects per year per P5 school:
LA: 14.67
GA: 14.67
FL: 14.11
TX: 9.06
AL: 5.67
TN: 5.5
MS: 4.5
AR: 4
MO: 3.67
SC: 2.67
KY: 1

Conclusion:
LSU has an enormous advantage because they're the only P5 school in the state. One could argue that UGA has it even better, seeing that Georgia Tech is absolutely not competing (usually) for top recruits with UGA. They get the lion's share of a talent-rich state.
Also, it could be worse for us. There are 4 SEC states that have a worse share of in-state prospects.

For our own recruiting, 4.5 blue-chip high schoolers per year would be nice, but we haven't kept that up.
Over 2015, 2016, 2017, we signed 4, 3, 2 in-state prospects, respectively (according to 247 composite). That's 3 per year. So we're typically losing 1.5 "deserved" recruits per year to TSUN or being poached by an out-of-state school.

What about us poaching other states' kids? Can we get back to our "deserved" rate by augmenting our classes with out-of-state prospects?
Including out-of-state signees, in 2015, 2016, 2017 we signed 5, 3, 3 every year. Or 3.67 per year. Conclusion: even when poaching other state's high school prospects, we aren't getting back as many as we've lost to having our own state poached (or TSUN).

In two years, when Oxford looks like Chernobyl, expect these numbers to get back to where they should be, with us taking our fair share of blue chip prospects, or at least getting our fair share when poaching some from out of state. Hail state!
(analogy: Vaught-Hemingway will become the famous Ferris wheel in Pripyat)

[Hasu Dackds]

Excellent analysis. I see people all the time that misconstrue these numbers, for various reasons. Maybe they don't understand per capita, maybe they don't realize that the number of schools vs. the players is all that matters. You actually got it right.

This highlights another eye-opening statistic: LOUISIANA. We have a better crack at the guys down there that LSU doesn't want. We are the closest Power 5 school to them, not to mention that LA and MS share much of the same cultures. We should heavily, heavily, heavily recruit LA.

This is also EXACTLY why we benefit from Ole Miss' demise. Even if it's just as you say, 1.5 recruits per year. That, and one more easily winnable game on the schedule.

[Todd4State]

The 2019 class could be an outlier. They already have two five star guys and I think eight four star guys. We should be able to get most if not all of those. That doesn't include the out of state four star QB that we already have committed for 2019.

And this shows why we should hit Louisiana hard for their second tier guys.

[sleepy dawg]

Thanks for sharing... This is my kind of post.