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An analysis: Did Ole Miss shave points?
After hearing rumors on a few different boards I decided to look into whether Ole Miss might have shaved points under Freeze. This is not a very detailed analysis, but an overview to see if the allegations are even plausible. I used the odds found on this website, which aren't the only set of odds out there, but the ones I was able to find the most easily.
I'll start with a list of all the games they played under Freeze, with the results. This will make it easier if anyone else wants to do an analysis.
Date |
H/A |
Opponent |
Result |
Margin |
Line |
Favored? |
Beat spread? |
O/U |
Total Scored |
O/U in Wins |
Sep 1, 2012 |
H |
CENTARK |
W, 49-27 |
22 |
20 |
YES |
YES |
-- |
76 |
|
Sep 8, 2012 |
H |
UTEP |
W, 28-10 |
18 |
8 |
YES |
YES |
53.5 |
38 |
U |
Sep 15, 2012 |
H |
TEXAS |
L, 66-31 |
-35 |
-10.5 |
NO |
|
51 |
97 |
|
Sep 22, 2012 |
@ |
TULANE |
W, 39-0 |
39 |
17.5 |
YES |
YES |
53 |
39 |
U |
Sep 29, 2012 |
@ |
ALAB |
L, 33-14 |
-19 |
-31 |
NO |
|
52.5 |
47 |
|
Oct 6, 2012 |
H |
TEXA&M |
L, 30-27 |
-3 |
-12.5 |
NO |
|
64.5 |
57 |
|
Oct 13, 2012 |
H |
AUBRN |
W, 41-20 |
21 |
4 |
YES |
YES |
49 |
61 |
O |
Oct 27, 2012 |
@ |
ARK |
W, 30-27 |
3 |
-6.5 |
NO |
|
63 |
57 |
U |
Nov 3, 2012 |
@ |
GEORGI |
L, 37-10 |
-27 |
-13.5 |
NO |
|
61.5 |
47 |
|
Nov 10, 2012 |
H |
VANDY |
L, 27-26 |
-1 |
2.5 |
YES |
|
50.5 |
53 |
|
Nov 17, 2012 |
@ |
LSU |
L, 41-35 |
-6 |
-18 |
NO |
|
48.5 |
76 |
|
Nov 24, 2012 |
H |
MIS.ST |
W, 41-24 |
17 |
1 |
YES |
YES |
54 |
65 |
O |
Jan 5, 2013 |
N |
PITT |
W, 38-17 |
21 |
4.5 |
YES |
YES |
54 |
55 |
O |
Aug 29, 2013 |
@ |
VANDY |
W, 39-35 |
4 |
3 |
YES |
YES |
52 |
74 |
O |
Sep 7, 2013 |
H |
SE.MIS |
W, 31-13 |
18 |
49.5 |
YES |
NO |
61 |
44 |
U |
Sep 14, 2013 |
@ |
TEXAS |
W, 44-23 |
21 |
-1.5 |
NO |
|
63.5 |
67 |
O |
Sep 28, 2013 |
@ |
ALAB |
L, 25-0 |
-25 |
-14 |
NO |
|
54.5 |
25 |
|
Oct 5, 2013 |
@ |
AUBRN |
L, 30-22 |
-8 |
2.5 |
YES |
|
58 |
52 |
|
Oct 12, 2013 |
H |
TEXA&M |
L, 41-38 |
-3 |
-7 |
NO |
|
77.5 |
79 |
|
Oct 19, 2013 |
H |
LSU |
W, 27-24 |
3 |
-9.5 |
NO |
|
60 |
51 |
U |
Oct 26, 2013 |
H |
IDAHO |
W, 59-14 |
45 |
41.5 |
YES |
YES |
58.5 |
73 |
O |
Nov 9, 2013 |
H |
ARK |
W, 34-24 |
10 |
17 |
YES |
NO |
54.5 |
58 |
O |
Nov 16, 2013 |
H |
TROY |
W, 51-21 |
30 |
28 |
YES |
YES |
69 |
72 |
O |
Nov 23, 2013 |
H |
MIZZOU |
L, 24-10 |
-14 |
-1.5 |
NO |
|
58.5 |
34 |
|
Nov 28, 2013 |
@ |
MIS.ST |
L, 17-10 |
-7 |
3.5 |
YES |
|
53.5 |
27 |
|
Dec 30, 2013 |
N |
GATECH |
W, 25-17 |
8 |
3 |
YES |
YES |
55 |
42 |
U |
Aug 28, 2014 |
N |
BOISE |
W, 35-13 |
22 |
9.5 |
YES |
YES |
52 |
48 |
U |
Sep 6, 2014 |
@ |
VANDY |
W, 41-3 |
38 |
18 |
YES |
YES |
49.5 |
44 |
U |
Sep 13, 2014 |
H |
UL.LAF |
W, 56-15 |
41 |
26 |
YES |
YES |
59 |
71 |
O |
Sep 27, 2014 |
H |
MEMPHS |
W, 24-3 |
21 |
20 |
YES |
YES |
58.5 |
27 |
U |
Oct 4, 2014 |
H |
ALAB |
W, 23-17 |
6 |
-4.5 |
NO |
|
53 |
40 |
U |
Oct 11, 2014 |
@ |
TEXA&M |
W, 35-20 |
15 |
-2.5 |
NO |
|
64 |
55 |
U |
Oct 18, 2014 |
H |
TENN |
W, 34-3 |
31 |
15.5 |
YES |
YES |
45.5 |
37 |
U |
Oct 25, 2014 |
@ |
LSU |
L, 10-7 |
-3 |
3.5 |
YES |
|
45 |
17 |
|
Nov 1, 2014 |
H |
AUBRN |
L, 35-31 |
-4 |
1 |
YES |
|
54 |
66 |
|
Nov 8, 2014 |
H |
PRESBYT |
W, 48-0 |
48 |
52 |
YES |
NO |
-- |
48 |
|
Nov 22, 2014 |
@ |
ARK |
L, 30-0 |
-30 |
3 |
YES |
|
46 |
30 |
|
Nov 29, 2014 |
H |
MIS.ST |
W, 31-17 |
14 |
-2.5 |
NO |
|
52.5 |
48 |
U |
Dec 31, 2014 |
N |
TCU |
L, 42-3 |
-39 |
-3 |
NO |
|
55 |
45 |
|
Sep 5, 2015 |
H |
TN.MAR |
W, 76-3 |
73 |
41 |
YES |
YES |
54 |
79 |
O |
Sep 12, 2015 |
H |
FRESNO |
W, 73-21 |
52 |
33 |
YES |
YES |
55.5 |
94 |
O |
Sep 19, 2015 |
@ |
ALAB |
W, 43-37 |
6 |
-9 |
NO |
|
52.5 |
80 |
O |
Sep 26, 2015 |
H |
VANDY |
W, 27-16 |
11 |
27 |
YES |
NO |
53 |
43 |
U |
Oct 3, 2015 |
@ |
FLA |
L, 38-10 |
-28 |
7 |
YES |
|
50.5 |
48 |
|
Oct 10, 2015 |
H |
NMEXST |
W, 52-3 |
49 |
46 |
YES |
YES |
69.5 |
55 |
U |
Oct 17, 2015 |
@ |
MEMPHS |
L, 37-24 |
-13 |
10 |
YES |
|
72 |
61 |
|
Oct 24, 2015 |
H |
TEXA&M |
W, 23-3 |
20 |
6.5 |
YES |
YES |
66.5 |
26 |
U |
Oct 31, 2015 |
@ |
AUBRN |
W, 27-19 |
8 |
8 |
YES |
YES |
56 |
46 |
U |
Nov 7, 2015 |
H |
ARK |
L, 53-52 |
-1 |
7.5 |
YES |
|
54.5 |
105 |
|
Nov 21, 2015 |
H |
LSU |
W, 38-17 |
21 |
7 |
YES |
YES |
58 |
55 |
U |
Nov 28, 2015 |
@ |
MIS.ST |
W, 38-27 |
11 |
2 |
YES |
YES |
65.5 |
65 |
U |
Jan 1, 2016 |
N |
OKLAST |
W, 48-20 |
28 |
7.5 |
YES |
YES |
70.5 |
68 |
U |
Sep 5, 2016 |
@ |
FLAST |
L, 45-34 |
-11 |
-4.5 |
NO |
|
58 |
79 |
|
Sep 10, 2016 |
H |
WOFFOR |
W, 38-13 |
25 |
43 |
YES |
NO |
56.5 |
51 |
U |
Sep 17, 2016 |
H |
ALAB |
L, 48-43 |
-5 |
-10 |
NO |
|
53 |
91 |
|
Sep 24, 2016 |
H |
GEORGI |
W, 45-14 |
31 |
7 |
YES |
YES |
61.5 |
59 |
U |
Oct 1, 2016 |
H |
MEMPHS |
W, 48-28 |
20 |
15.5 |
YES |
YES |
71.5 |
76 |
O |
Oct 15, 2016 |
@ |
ARK |
L, 34-30 |
-4 |
10 |
YES |
|
65 |
64 |
|
Oct 22, 2016 |
@ |
LSU |
L, 38-21 |
-17 |
-8.5 |
NO |
|
60 |
59 |
|
Oct 29, 2016 |
H |
AUBRN |
L, 40-29 |
-11 |
-4.5 |
NO |
|
64 |
69 |
|
Nov 5, 2016 |
H |
GASOU |
W, 37-27 |
10 |
28 |
YES |
NO |
63 |
64 |
O |
Nov 12, 2016 |
@ |
TEXA&M |
W, 29-28 |
1 |
-7 |
NO |
|
62.5 |
57 |
U |
Nov 19, 2016 |
@ |
VANDY |
L, 38-17 |
-21 |
9.5 |
YES |
|
50.5 |
55 |
|
Nov 26, 2016 |
H |
MIS.ST |
L, 55-20 |
-35 |
10 |
YES |
|
69 |
75 |
|
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