An analysis: Did Ole Miss shave points?

[Quaoarsking]

After hearing rumors on a few different boards I decided to look into whether Ole Miss might have shaved points under Freeze. This is not a very detailed analysis, but an overview to see if the allegations are even plausible. I used the odds found on this website, which aren't the only set of odds out there, but the ones I was able to find the most easily.

I'll start with a list of all the games they played under Freeze, with the results. This will make it easier if anyone else wants to do an analysis.

Date	H/A	Opponent	Result	Margin	Line	Favored?	Beat spread?	O/U	Total Scored	O/U in Wins
Sep 1, 2012	H	CENTARK	W, 49-27	22	20	YES	YES	--	76
Sep 8, 2012	H	UTEP	W, 28-10	18	8	YES	YES	53.5	38	U
Sep 15, 2012	H	TEXAS	L, 66-31	-35	-10.5	NO		51	97
Sep 22, 2012	@	TULANE	W, 39-0	39	17.5	YES	YES	53	39	U
Sep 29, 2012	@	ALAB	L, 33-14	-19	-31	NO		52.5	47
Oct 6, 2012	H	TEXA&M	L, 30-27	-3	-12.5	NO		64.5	57
Oct 13, 2012	H	AUBRN	W, 41-20	21	4	YES	YES	49	61	O
Oct 27, 2012	@	ARK	W, 30-27	3	-6.5	NO		63	57	U
Nov 3, 2012	@	GEORGI	L, 37-10	-27	-13.5	NO		61.5	47
Nov 10, 2012	H	VANDY	L, 27-26	-1	2.5	YES		50.5	53
Nov 17, 2012	@	LSU	L, 41-35	-6	-18	NO		48.5	76
Nov 24, 2012	H	MIS.ST	W, 41-24	17	1	YES	YES	54	65	O
Jan 5, 2013	N	PITT	W, 38-17	21	4.5	YES	YES	54	55	O
Aug 29, 2013	@	VANDY	W, 39-35	4	3	YES	YES	52	74	O
Sep 7, 2013	H	SE.MIS	W, 31-13	18	49.5	YES	NO	61	44	U
Sep 14, 2013	@	TEXAS	W, 44-23	21	-1.5	NO		63.5	67	O
Sep 28, 2013	@	ALAB	L, 25-0	-25	-14	NO		54.5	25
Oct 5, 2013	@	AUBRN	L, 30-22	-8	2.5	YES		58	52
Oct 12, 2013	H	TEXA&M	L, 41-38	-3	-7	NO		77.5	79
Oct 19, 2013	H	LSU	W, 27-24	3	-9.5	NO		60	51	U
Oct 26, 2013	H	IDAHO	W, 59-14	45	41.5	YES	YES	58.5	73	O
Nov 9, 2013	H	ARK	W, 34-24	10	17	YES	NO	54.5	58	O
Nov 16, 2013	H	TROY	W, 51-21	30	28	YES	YES	69	72	O
Nov 23, 2013	H	MIZZOU	L, 24-10	-14	-1.5	NO		58.5	34
Nov 28, 2013	@	MIS.ST	L, 17-10	-7	3.5	YES		53.5	27
Dec 30, 2013	N	GATECH	W, 25-17	8	3	YES	YES	55	42	U
Aug 28, 2014	N	BOISE	W, 35-13	22	9.5	YES	YES	52	48	U
Sep 6, 2014	@	VANDY	W, 41-3	38	18	YES	YES	49.5	44	U
Sep 13, 2014	H	UL.LAF	W, 56-15	41	26	YES	YES	59	71	O
Sep 27, 2014	H	MEMPHS	W, 24-3	21	20	YES	YES	58.5	27	U
Oct 4, 2014	H	ALAB	W, 23-17	6	-4.5	NO		53	40	U
Oct 11, 2014	@	TEXA&M	W, 35-20	15	-2.5	NO		64	55	U
Oct 18, 2014	H	TENN	W, 34-3	31	15.5	YES	YES	45.5	37	U
Oct 25, 2014	@	LSU	L, 10-7	-3	3.5	YES		45	17
Nov 1, 2014	H	AUBRN	L, 35-31	-4	1	YES		54	66
Nov 8, 2014	H	PRESBYT	W, 48-0	48	52	YES	NO	--	48
Nov 22, 2014	@	ARK	L, 30-0	-30	3	YES		46	30
Nov 29, 2014	H	MIS.ST	W, 31-17	14	-2.5	NO		52.5	48	U
Dec 31, 2014	N	TCU	L, 42-3	-39	-3	NO		55	45
Sep 5, 2015	H	TN.MAR	W, 76-3	73	41	YES	YES	54	79	O
Sep 12, 2015	H	FRESNO	W, 73-21	52	33	YES	YES	55.5	94	O
Sep 19, 2015	@	ALAB	W, 43-37	6	-9	NO		52.5	80	O
Sep 26, 2015	H	VANDY	W, 27-16	11	27	YES	NO	53	43	U
Oct 3, 2015	@	FLA	L, 38-10	-28	7	YES		50.5	48
Oct 10, 2015	H	NMEXST	W, 52-3	49	46	YES	YES	69.5	55	U
Oct 17, 2015	@	MEMPHS	L, 37-24	-13	10	YES		72	61
Oct 24, 2015	H	TEXA&M	W, 23-3	20	6.5	YES	YES	66.5	26	U
Oct 31, 2015	@	AUBRN	W, 27-19	8	8	YES	YES	56	46	U
Nov 7, 2015	H	ARK	L, 53-52	-1	7.5	YES		54.5	105
Nov 21, 2015	H	LSU	W, 38-17	21	7	YES	YES	58	55	U
Nov 28, 2015	@	MIS.ST	W, 38-27	11	2	YES	YES	65.5	65	U
Jan 1, 2016	N	OKLAST	W, 48-20	28	7.5	YES	YES	70.5	68	U
Sep 5, 2016	@	FLAST	L, 45-34	-11	-4.5	NO		58	79
Sep 10, 2016	H	WOFFOR	W, 38-13	25	43	YES	NO	56.5	51	U
Sep 17, 2016	H	ALAB	L, 48-43	-5	-10	NO		53	91
Sep 24, 2016	H	GEORGI	W, 45-14	31	7	YES	YES	61.5	59	U
Oct 1, 2016	H	MEMPHS	W, 48-28	20	15.5	YES	YES	71.5	76	O
Oct 15, 2016	@	ARK	L, 34-30	-4	10	YES		65	64
Oct 22, 2016	@	LSU	L, 38-21	-17	-8.5	NO		60	59
Oct 29, 2016	H	AUBRN	L, 40-29	-11	-4.5	NO		64	69
Nov 5, 2016	H	GASOU	W, 37-27	10	28	YES	NO	63	64	O
Nov 12, 2016	@	TEXA&M	W, 29-28	1	-7	NO		62.5	57	U
Nov 19, 2016	@	VANDY	L, 38-17	-21	9.5	YES		50.5	55
Nov 26, 2016	H	MIS.ST	L, 55-20	-35	10	YES		69	75

[Quaoarsking]

The easiest way to shave points is to win a game you're favored in, just not by enough of a margin to beat the spread. I find that Ole Miss under Freeze won 31 games in which they were the favorite, and they covered the spread in 25 of these. Additionally, 4 of the 6 they didn't cover the spread were beatdowns on FCS teams, so I think it's safe to call them NOT GUILTY on any point shaving against the spread.

I doubt Ole Miss was losing games on purpose or manipulating scores in losses, but who knows.

It's also possible to manipulate over/unders, but that's less likely because it's hard to control what the other team does -- I guess you could let the other team score some garbage points on purpose, but it seems more likely that you'd just tank on offense in garbage time and make sure you stay under. (But at the same time it may be hard to ensure that the other team doesn't score enough to hit the over.) Again, I will assume that any score manipulation would come in Ole Miss wins. In the 39 games Hugh won at Ole Miss, 2 didn't have an O/U, and the Rebels hit the over in 14 games and they other 23 were under. That's a little bit of a lopsided ratio, but nothing damning in this small of a sample size.

What's interesting though, is that after beating Alabama in 2015, Hugh had 12 overs and 13 unders in his 25 wins. After that, it was only 2 more overs in wins and 10 unders¹. That's a pretty unusual streak. Is it possible that there was some manipulation here? Did Hugh call off the dogs once the game was won in order not to hit the over? Again, it would be hard to do because who knows what the other team will do. And several of Ole Miss's losses in this time period hit the over, which is an argument against the shaving hypothesis. And it's probably more likely that Vegas had too much faith in Hugh's offense and was setting unrealistically high Overs.

Conclusion: They probably didn't shave points, unless it was just a one-time or occasional thing. But if they did shave points or manipulate scores for gambling purposes somehow, that long under streak in 2015-16 is probably where it was.



_{Note 1-Another interesting point is that both of those 2 overs just barely hit the over - they may have been under in a different sportsbook.}

[AlmostPositive]

"One can only hope so, Jack"

[Dawg61]

I remember Bo Wallace having some really questionable interceptions his last two years

[Quaoarsking]

I remember Bo Wallace having some really questionable interceptions his last two years

Bo only failed to cover the spread as favorite once against an FBS team in his entire Ole Miss career, so if true, he must have been messing with the over/under or some other prop bets.

[Liverpooldawg]

Most of the rumors seem to center on Bo Wallace. In fairness to him, if he had been consistant, THAT would have been suspicious.

[Dawg61]

Bo only failed to cover the spread as favorite once against an FBS team in his entire Ole Miss career, so if true, he must have been messing with the over/under or some other prop bets.

Too difficult to figure out without knowing what they woulda been betting for/against and which games Vegas lost big on

[HSVDawg]

I remember Bo Wallace having some really questionable interceptions his last two years

All of his interceptions were shitty. He was really questionable at decision making and also had a noodle arm. That's not a good combination.

[Quaoarsking]

Bumping (sorry), since the rumors are coming out on Twitter again.

The allegation is Bo Wallace in 2014, and please note that Ole Miss Undered every game that year, except for UL-Lafayette (a blowout where Bo Wallace didn't play after the 1st drive of the second half) and Auburn (a game that came down to the final play)