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Thread: 4 MSU Bulldogs projected to go in 2017 NFL Draft

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    Senior Member PSYCHO(thesis)DEFENSE's Avatar
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    4 MSU Bulldogs projected to go in 2017 NFL Draft

    Here's a look at where our guys are being projected to go. Not a huge senior class, & we retained most of our talent, so not the most exciting draft from a State fan's perspective. I averaged 12 mock drafts to get average draft positions for 4 Mississippi State football products. Small sample size (I used 40 mocks last year) but this has been the busiest month of my life, & not many mocks go past round 3, so I just wanted to put something out there for consistency's sake.

    I (optimistically) predict 3 of the 4 bulldogs listed here will be drafted, but readily note that on day 3 of the draft projections are basically worthless.

    Justin Senior
    7 mocks, average draft position: 207th overall (6th round - 23rd pick)
    Highest: 102nd overall (3rd round- 37th pick, Ravens)
    Lowest: 249th overall (7th round - 33rd pick, Bengals)
    Not mocked to any team twice
    My pick: 5th rd - 32nd pick to Bengals
    Standard deviation: 51 picks; so a round and a half worth of deviation, from middle of 5th to early 7th
    NFL.com grade: 5.05 (back end of the roster)

    I think he's our most likely to be drafted because he's got an NFL body at a valuable position in a thin class. I do remember him getting beat badly on a handful of plays, especially inside which is unforgivable, but for the most part he quietly anchored the right side for 3 years in the SEC. This poor OT class is the only reason I can figure for Senior's rise as a draftable prospect. Likely wouldn't have a chance in most drafts.

    Richie Brown
    7 mock avg: 184th overall (6th-1)
    Highest: 136th overall (4th-28, Falcons)
    Lowest: 241st overall (7th-23, Giants)
    Standard deviation: 38 picks; a little over a round of variance so firmly between late 5th & early 7th
    NFL.com grade: 4.9 (50/50 chance of making roster)
    My pick: 6th rd - 29th pick to Steelers

    I've barely even heard Richie mentioned among the MSU talking heads when discussing likely-drafted bulldogs & I think its a great disservice to Brown. Despite a stellar career production-wise, he's largely undervalued among our fanbase due to recency bias after watching him struggle in Sirmon's 3-4. As an undersized, speedy MLB with a knack for diagnosing plays, Brown was a terrible fit as an inside 3-4 linebacker, which is traditionally suited for big, thick-bodied thumpers that can take on blockers. The system switch had to be a huge shock to have a guard bee-lining you every play for a guy who was used to having 2 DTs swallowing up blockers while he reads & reacts. His stock has taken a huge hit as a result, exemplified by the fact that he's not being mentioned for the draft by state fans after he showed up in the 1st round of at least one 2017 mock a year ago (which was obviously a terrible misevaluation & indicative that most of these guys don't know shit). His strength taking on blockers is a huge negative, but that can be hidden in the right scheme. Unpopular opinion but I think he has a higher chance to be drafted than Fred Ross, and will make a few rosters before he hangs it up.

    Fred Ross
    7 mock avg: 157th overall (5th-13)
    Highest: 105th overall (4th-9, Cardinals)
    Lowest: 228th overall (7th-30, Cowboys)
    Standard deviation: 75 picks; over 2 rounds of variance, indicating he's all over the board - anywhere from 5th to 7th.
    Favorite: 3 mocks to the Cardinals so they may like him or just need a WR late
    NFL.com grade: 4.94 (50/50 chance of making roster)
    My pick: 7th rd - 28th pick to Cowboys just because that's the most exciting thing State fans can hope for this draft

    I would've put Ross a lot higher last year, & while I think his struggles this year were mostly due to chemistry issues, he just doesn't stand out in any particular area. I think he's a plus route-runner & a smooth athlete, but no quick-twitch traits, which NFL scouts seem to value above all else at WR, along w/ size, speed & separation. Would get eaten up on the outside but I think he can operate well in the slot at the next level. Being pigeon-holed in the slot will hurt, but being a reliable punt returner helps.

    Johnathan Calvin
    4 mock avg: 209th overall (6th-25)
    Highest: 172nd overall (5th-27, Packers)
    Lowest: 223rd overall (7th-5, Dolphins)
    Standard deviation: 24 picks, back of the draft
    NFL.com grade: 4.96 (50/50 chance of making roster)
    My pick: Undrafted

    Surprised to see him show up in mocks as I would've expected AJ Jefferson to be higher. He showed some playmaking ability in his limited time at State. Out of position in Sirmon?s 3-4 (there's a theme here), & much more suited as a 4-3 rush end. Good first pass rush move but not an elite enough athlete to beat NFL OTs to the QB, so he could use some more size to add value as a run stopper.


    Customary reminder that mock drafts are notoriously unreliable, but I'm a data hound & that's all we got. 2 years ago Matt Wells & Malcom Johnson were drafted after appearing in 0 mocks, while Eulls, J Cox, & Beckwith went undrafted after appearing in multiple mocks, so who knows, maybe we see a team take a flier on Nick James, Jefferson, or Clayborn. As I've said before I'm a draft fan, but just not that much to get excited about this year, & I haven't kept up with the process as much as I usually do. On top of that I've got a huge assignment due Saturday so I'll be mostly checked out.

    No way this draft is as entertaining as last year's when we watched Chris Jones, Dak Prescott, & Will Redmond go in the 1st three rounds. If NFL GMs had the benefit of hindsight, and if Redmond had never torn his knee up, all three would have been 1st rounders. Last year I predicted 6 Bulldogs to be drafted & was very surprised we didn't get any late picks between Beni Brown, Bear, & Calhoun. Glad we didn't see any ill-advised early entries this year, & that may have been a result of watching what happened when former teammates ignored the advice of coaches to chase dollars. Next year will be another small class but seeing if Martinas Rankin follows through on his current 2018 first round projections will be interesting (Ranked 2nd overall OT by CBSsports.com).

    Fingers crossed, but no way we get another unexpected treat of the magnitude of last year?s Ole Miss Hell-a-thon, watching their Draft Day dreams turn into a living nightmare. Considering they hyped it as their arrival on the national stage but ending up arriving back on the NCAA's ledger instead, that was a once-in-a-lifetime dumpster fire, the memory of which will warm my heart for draft days to come. Have to expect the Vikings & Cardinals to be a little weary about wasting any more picks on Freeze-coached players after the Vikings got the same receiving production from their injury-riddled QB as their 1st round WR (1 catch apiece) & the Cards got more tackles from their 4 WRs than they did their 1st round DT (Michael Floyd, Jaron Brown, JJ Nelson & John Brown all had at least 1 solo tackle vs. Knemiche's 1 assisted tackle).

    As I predicted, Tunsil fell from the top 5 (but man I did NOT see the rest of that story coming) & Treadwell was not in the top 2 WRs taken. Wrongly, I predicted Chris Jones would be drafted higher than Nkemdiche. Didn't happen, but when one guy is rated a top 10 rookie by Pro Football Focus for the entire year - while the other one struggles to keep his place on the practice team & gets derided by the HC as having the worst work ethic he's ever seen - there's not much else to say. I also predicted MSU would have more players drafted than OM. Also didn't happen - but when you have the NFL Rookie of the Year leading America's team to a #1 playoff seed while being the media darling & sports story of the year - again, not much else to say. Prepare to hear about how many players OM gets drafted this weekend vs. State, but just know that the impact of Mullen's players in the league - versus the craters left by Freeze's - means more for perception and building the MSU brand than the number of players drafted.

    The back end of the draft is a crapshoot so I won't be surprised if all 3 of our guys get drafted or if none of them hear their name called. If you're just watching as a State fan, I think you can turn your radar on in the 4th round, but probably won't need to pay much attention til at least the middle of the 5th. Now back to writing something with an actual deadline, thanks for giving me a platform to procrastinate for a while.
    Last edited by PSYCHO(thesis)DEFENSE; 04-27-2017 at 05:38 PM. Reason: replacing weird ? marks w/ apostrophes

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    Senior Member msstate7's Avatar
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    Very nice post. Thanks for the research

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    Senior Member bulldawg28's Avatar
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    I say 2 are drafted

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    Good research dude. Thanks

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    Senior Member Reason2succeed's Avatar
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    The Dak factor might make GMs respect our development program. Add Dak to Fletcher Cox, Darius Slay, and B. Mac and I could make a great case that players from State are worth the risk of overdrafting.
    Death penalty or bust!!!***

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    Senior Member PSYCHO(thesis)DEFENSE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bulldawg28 View Post
    I say 2 are drafted
    if I was betting so would I, but I figured a free message board is a better place for optimism than Vegas!


    Quote Originally Posted by Reason2succeed View Post
    The Dak factor might make GMs respect our development program. Add Dak to Fletcher Cox, Darius Slay, and B. Mac and I could make a great case that players from State are worth the risk of overdrafting.
    Agreed. I think all 4 of those guys would be first rounders along w/ Fletch in a re-draft of their respective classes. Slay & B Mac were just outside the 1st round & surely there were some busts those years. Johnthan Banks might move down a round or two if that 2013 class was re-drafted though..

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    General Public Political Hack's Avatar
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    That wasn't a good read. I hope Ross goes in the 7th to the Boys. That would be nice to see him with Dak.

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    Senior Member Tbonewannabe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reason2succeed View Post
    The Dak factor might make GMs respect our development program. Add Dak to Fletcher Cox, Darius Slay, and B. Mac and I could make a great case that players from State are worth the risk of overdrafting.
    You forgot KJ Wright who is one of Gruden's favorite players drafted in the 4th I think.

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    Senior Member Tbonewannabe's Avatar
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    NFL teams are figuring out that MSU players that have the measurables also have the work ethic to go with it. If you draft one of Freeze's bunch then you are going to have to develop them from the Juco level they are at.

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