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Thursday Sever Weather
To sum it up in two words...buckle up.
Tomorrow has the potential to be a big time day weather wise. The one limiting factor they thought might dampen it down - coastal storm development - is not looking to not happen at all or not happen in any meaningful manner. Therefore, severe storms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon over the upper delta region and then move east and south. The SPC has already included much of north MS in a moderate risk for tomorrow. Here is their exact wording and graphic:
A strong mid-level speed max (50+ knots at 700mb) will rotate across the cold front during the afternoon, promoting strong low-level and deep layer vertical shear profiles. Forecast soundings show 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg. Several 00z cam solutions that extend into the Day2 period indicate discrete supercell mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT risk area.
Depending on the model, storms are expected to develop anytime from 2:00-7:00. These will quickly go severe and some will go tornadic. There is a chance those of you in western MS may see some severe weather around daybreak tomorrow but those storms will quickly weaken before these new ones redevelop.
I'll be posting here today on this as new information comes in and will try to answer any questions. Hopefully, Ref and others more knowledgeable will also chime in as well. Tomorrow, I will be out trying to see how close I can get to these storms and probably won't be able to post much. For those interested, I may be able to get a live stream up and going if I can get my camera stabilized enough and remain in an area of strong enough signal. If I am able to stream, it will appear on the facebook sight for North MS Storm Chasers and Spotters. You can like the page and that should send you an update if I go live. I have a secondary option of streaming over my personal twitter account if all else fails. Just see what tomorrow brings.
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