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Thread: Thursday Sever Weather

  1. #21
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    one needs to be gentle and caressing the bust it can often be a handful

  2. #22
    Senior Member MaxedOutMaroon's Avatar
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    I see things are questionable tmrw. But I'm driving from Pontotoc to Ridgeland tmrw between 1-5. Is it a safer bet to head over to I55 at Grenada or hit the trace and be ok with sparing a few minutes?

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MaxedOutMaroon View Post
    I see things are questionable tmrw. But I'm driving from Pontotoc to Ridgeland tmrw between 1-5. Is it a safer bet to head over to I55 at Grenada or hit the trace and be ok with sparing a few minutes?
    If we get any storms, that would be the time. The potentially clearer route could well be I-55. Storms that develop will need longer to go severe and that could push them further east before doing so.

  4. #24
    Tha Winnah! ScoobaDawg's Avatar
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    12:07 AM - last frame of the recent run of HRRR model suggests developing storms by mid afternoon Thursday. We'll see what fires up!



  5. #25
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    New Day 1 SPC out. Enhanced for most of the State of MS


  6. #26
    Senior Member Reunion Dog's Avatar
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    good stuff guys... thunderstorms in Madison going on now....

  7. #27
    Official Elitedawg Weather Forecaster TheRef's Avatar
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    Looking at the latest model runs, if the sun stays out like i think it will after this first line passes, we are all going to have to be looking to prepare as much as possible. Discrete cell formation will make everything go today. If we get discrete cells in MS and they stay separated for a few hours, that will make a huge impact. I'm already expecting some fairly large hail (up to hen egg size), but depending on the post-line setup and when the cap breaks, that could increase. Tornado threat will be determined by how low the cloud base is. The lower the cloud base, the higher the possibility for storms.

    Note to those chasing: There will be a fairly large contingent of people chasing today from the area. Give plenty of room between yourself and other chasers. We've already lost 3 this year, let's not lose any more for stupid stuff. I'll be in an Emergency management course all day, so I won't be able to do updates very much.
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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    I brought my stuff to work just in case those discrete cells fire, but I'm not nearly as fired up as I was this time yesterday. Hope you're right Ref and I am dead wrong on thinking this may be more a wind and hail event than tornado event. Either way, looks like I get to save most of a day of vacation and chase close to home regardless. Maybe I'll be one of the 50 chasers trying to get on the Hwy45 Alt bridge at Okolona for a view back to the west.

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    Some school systems in northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee have decided to close for the day because of the severe threat. That's becoming fairly common practice now, I think largely due to the deaths a few years ago in a high school near Dothan, Alabama, when it was hit by a large tornado. Better safe than sorry.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RocketDawg View Post
    Some school systems in northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee have decided to close for the day because of the severe threat. That's becoming fairly common practice now, I think largely due to the deaths a few years ago in a high school near Dothan, Alabama, when it was hit by a large tornado. Better safe than sorry.
    I still remember going in the hallway and putting my hands over the back of my head. In later years we called it the put your ass in the air and kiss it goodbye position.

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    Thanks for keeping us posted!

  12. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34 View Post
    I brought my stuff to work just in case those discrete cells fire, but I'm not nearly as fired up as I was this time yesterday. Hope you're right Ref and I am dead wrong on thinking this may be more a wind and hail event than tornado event. Either way, looks like I get to save most of a day of vacation and chase close to home regardless. Maybe I'll be one of the 50 chasers trying to get on the Hwy45 Alt bridge at Okolona for a view back to the west.
    Hopefully I'm just reading this wrong, but it sounds like you're pulling for life altering (or even ending) weather just so you can play around and get a rise out of it. Personally, I hope this all fizzles out and no one gets hurt.

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    what is the Corinth area looking like with the newer models? I am over a factory and am wondering if I should send them home after the first shift around 2:00pm. What are your thoughts?
    Last edited by Hrdawg82; 03-30-2017 at 08:11 AM. Reason: add more info

  14. #34
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    Right now it looks like the Coast is in line to get hit hard, is that the case? It looks like everything is down in South Louisiana headed towards South Mississippi.

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    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PMDawg View Post
    Hopefully I'm just reading this wrong, but it sounds like you're pulling for life altering (or even ending) weather just so you can play around and get a rise out of it. Personally, I hope this all fizzles out and no one gets hurt.
    I know it sounds like that, but I really don't mean it that way. First, I will admit I love seeing tornadoes and severe weather. It is a huge adrenaline rush. I can't deny that. That said, I wish every one that I ever saw was out over open fields and never destroyed anybody's property or killed or injured anyone. However, I know that is rarely the case so I look at it like this. Severe storms are going to happen. Tornadoes are going to happen. They are going to destroy peoples' homes and take lives. Me enjoying seeing these forces of nature does not make that any more likely to happen. In fact, me, and other chasers, being out there and enjoying what we do can help save those lives because once we can confirm to the NWS that a tornado is on the ground they can upgrade the warning and studies have shown that a warning that has a confirmed tornado is more likely to cause people to take shelter. We are also often times the first people on a damage scene and are the first ones helping in search and rescue. So no, I hate it when people lose their lives or their homes to storms. I wish it never happened. But it does and if I can possible help save someone's life by doing something I enjoy doing then it is as much of a win win as you can get under the circumstances.

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by PMDawg View Post
    Hopefully I'm just reading this wrong, but it sounds like you're pulling for life altering (or even ending) weather just so you can play around and get a rise out of it. Personally, I hope this all fizzles out and no one gets hurt.
    That's the way I read it too. I have ties to a place that got leveled with many deaths a few years ago. People I knew were killed. That place won't ever be the same in my lifetime, if ever. I just am astounded at the hopeful language chasers use sometimes.

  17. #37
    Senior Member SaintDawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34 View Post
    I still remember going in the hallway and putting my hands over the back of my head. In later years we called it the put your ass in the air and kiss it goodbye position.
    LMAO... I remember that mess too. I remember a horrible storm when I was a kid that didn't hit the school but popped some windows and blew doors open. Lost a lot of respect for some of our varsity football players that day.

  18. #38
    Senior Member starkvegasdawg's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hrdawg82 View Post
    what is the Corinth area looking like with the newer models? I am over a factory and am wondering if I should send them home after the first shift around 2:00pm. What are your thoughts?
    Quote Originally Posted by TimberBeast View Post
    Right now it looks like the Coast is in line to get hit hard, is that the case? It looks like everything is down in South Louisiana headed towards South Mississippi.
    The Corinth area is looking like it can expect storms to redevelop and move over the area between 2:00-7:00. Models are showing the potential for a broken line of discrete cells to form early this afternoon and move east. These have the potential to become severe and maybe produce a short lived tornado, but I am personally thinking the main threats would be straight line winds and large hail.

    The storms along the coast are expected to weaken as the day wears on, so I would not be as concerned down there. All of MS is under a slight risk for severe weather (enhanced was dropped for north MS) so it is not out of the question you see a severe storm out of this line, but I am thinking that far south you are looking at more of a heavy rain event than anything else.

  19. #39
    Senior Member BB30's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by starkvegasdawg34 View Post
    I know it sounds like that, but I really don't mean it that way. First, I will admit I love seeing tornadoes and severe weather. It is a huge adrenaline rush. I can't deny that. That said, I wish every one that I ever saw was out over open fields and never destroyed anybody's property or killed or injured anyone. However, I know that is rarely the case so I look at it like this. Severe storms are going to happen. Tornadoes are going to happen. They are going to destroy peoples' homes and take lives. Me enjoying seeing these forces of nature does not make that any more likely to happen. In fact, me, and other chasers, being out there and enjoying what we do can help save those lives because once we can confirm to the NWS that a tornado is on the ground they can upgrade the warning and studies have shown that a warning that has a confirmed tornado is more likely to cause people to take shelter. We are also often times the first people on a damage scene and are the first ones helping in search and rescue. So no, I hate it when people lose their lives or their homes to storms. I wish it never happened. But it does and if I can possible help save someone's life by doing something I enjoy doing then it is as much of a win win as you can get under the circumstances.
    I agree with this comment. The previous comment though did come across a little off. Hoping that Ref is right and you are wrong in that the weather actually does throw tornadoes today is where I think people are getting a bit hung up.

    I get tornadoes and severe weather are going to happen and what yall do when it does happen is extremely helpful, but hoping for it to happen is a little off IMO.

  20. #40
    Senior Member SignalToNoise's Avatar
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    It does appear to have fizzled some, at least in the Nashville/Mid TN area.
    SPC has dropped from 4/5 risk to 3/5. Probabilities of X event occurring within 25 miles of you has been halved: Hail and straight line winds from 30% to 15%, tornadoes from 10% to 5%. HRRR model seems to think there will be enough cloud cover here to limit storm potential.

    I'm an amateur but these are starting to look like garden variety spring thunderstorms and that is not a complaint.

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