Thursday Sever Weather

[starkvegasdawg]

To sum it up in two words...buckle up.

Tomorrow has the potential to be a big time day weather wise. The one limiting factor they thought might dampen it down - coastal storm development - is not looking to not happen at all or not happen in any meaningful manner. Therefore, severe storms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon over the upper delta region and then move east and south. The SPC has already included much of north MS in a moderate risk for tomorrow. Here is their exact wording and graphic:

A strong mid-level speed max (50+ knots at 700mb) will rotate across the cold front during the afternoon, promoting strong low-level and deep layer vertical shear profiles. Forecast soundings show 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2 and MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg. Several 00z cam solutions that extend into the Day2 period indicate discrete supercell mode will be preferred with the activity, suggesting a favorable environment for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Strong tornadoes and very large hail will be possible in the MDT risk area.

Depending on the model, storms are expected to develop anytime from 2:00-7:00. These will quickly go severe and some will go tornadic. There is a chance those of you in western MS may see some severe weather around daybreak tomorrow but those storms will quickly weaken before these new ones redevelop.

I'll be posting here today on this as new information comes in and will try to answer any questions. Hopefully, Ref and others more knowledgeable will also chime in as well. Tomorrow, I will be out trying to see how close I can get to these storms and probably won't be able to post much. For those interested, I may be able to get a live stream up and going if I can get my camera stabilized enough and remain in an area of strong enough signal. If I am able to stream, it will appear on the facebook sight for North MS Storm Chasers and Spotters. You can like the page and that should send you an update if I go live. I have a secondary option of streaming over my personal twitter account if all else fails. Just see what tomorrow brings.

[Bully13]

We got hammered last night in ft worth. Swing set demolished, neighbors fence down, lots of damage all over n. TX. Sirens blasting.

[SaintDawg]

What can you forecast for the Central MS area (Hinds, Madison, Rankin)? Local news weather guys say it's a slow moving front and some places could get popped 2-3 times.

And did you mean 2 am to 7 am or 2 pm to 7 pm?

[starkvegasdawg]

What can you forecast for the Central MS area (Hinds, Madison, Rankin)? Local news weather guys say it's a slow moving front and some places could get popped 2-3 times.

And did you mean 2 am to 7 am or 2 pm to 7 pm?

Right now....I stress right now...it looks like the further north you are the worse it could be. The Jackson area could certainly see some severe weather, though, including tornadoes and large hail. My thinking the timing is 2:00pm to 7:00pm. There will be a morning round of storms but as they cross the river they should weaken, but if you are in AR or LA and perhaps the western MS delta then you need to have a way to get warnings overnight as these could pose a significant severe threat, too, for those areas. If nothing changes from the way things look currently, I am considering staging around the Grenada area tomorrow and see when and where things develop, unless I decide to leave earlier and try to catch the tail end of the morning round over near the river.

[SaintDawg]

Right now....I stress right now...it looks like the further north you are the worse it could be. The Jackson area could certainly see some severe weather, though, including tornadoes and large hail. My thinking the timing is 2:00pm to 7:00pm. There will be a morning round of storms but as they cross the river they should weaken, but if you are in AR or LA and perhaps the western MS delta then you need to have a way to get warnings overnight as these could pose a significant severe threat, too, for those areas. If nothing changes from the way things look currently, I am considering staging around the Grenada area tomorrow and see when and where things develop, unless I decide to leave earlier and try to catch the tail end of the morning round over near the river.

So stay vigilant statewide. The whole of MS is in the crosshairs.

[starkvegasdawg]

So stay vigilant statewide. The whole of MS is in the crosshairs.

To play it safe, yes. But off the record if I was south of I-20 I might could relax a little bit.

[SignalToNoise]

For the middle TN/Nashville dawgs, stay vigilant. We are expected to get two waves of storms, the first in the AM and the second wave coming at evening rush hour and bringing some nasty stuff with it.
Stay safe, ya'll.

https://nashvillesevereweather.com/2...ible-thursday/

[starkvegasdawg]

I have to say after the latest model information I'm not nearly as impressed for MS. Not saying nothing will happen, but it looks like it may be confined more to east MS. Tornado threat also not looking as pronounced. It appears coastal convection may kill a lot of potential.

[biscuit]

What about Desoto-Memphis area? Thanks for the updates!

[starkvegasdawg]

What about Desoto-Memphis area? Thanks for the updates!

May see some storms tonight, but tomorrow may not be that bad if current thinking holds.

[CrosscityDawg]

Corinth?

[RocketDawg]

There's a tornado watch for much of western Mississippi, basically south of Greenville and west of I-55. Goes until 3 a.m.

[starkvegasdawg]

Corinth?

If there's a best area for severe storms in MS I'd say Corinth would be in that area. But as stated earlier, coastal convection may kill everything. The next round of model updates should start coming in the next hour or so. I'll give my thoughts after I look at those.

[CrosscityDawg]

Thanks for the info! Gotta love this time of year. Watched a tornado Monday come within a mile of my house.

[Boodawg]

Madison?

[WSOPdawg]

I hear major thunder and lightening is about to rain down on Oxford.

[starkvegasdawg]

I'm very close to calling tomorrow a bust. We may still see some severe weather, but I don't think it's going to be near what was expected just this morning.

[DancingRabbit]

I hear major thunder and lightening is about to rain down on Oxford.

What about brimstone?

[WSOPdawg]

What about brimstone?

Not to hijack this thread, but ohhhhh, that's goooooo-o-o-o-o-d Rabbit.

[ScoobaDawg]

I'm very close to calling tomorrow a bust. We may still see some severe weather, but I don't think it's going to be near what was expected just this morning.

Careful with the bust word...

James Spann‏Verified account @spann 7m7 minutes agoMore



Still uncertainty concerning tomorrow evening’s severe weather threat. Watching new data arriving now.