Welp. Looks like more bad baseball news on the horizon...

[NewDawg]

Talk to a pitcher on the staff. They'd rather have Johnson back in a heartbeat, even as bad as y'all talk about him

HaHa! Not the ones that played for him other than the one that started and he worked with.

[KB21]

Even Collins had very little pop as a freshman.

College baseball players, generally speaking, get much, much better with 1-2 years of experience. Those who just see a freshman or a guy in his first year that isn't performing all that well and say, 'Eh, he's not talented,' don't understand that.

This. Not every freshman is Jake Mangum as far as AVG goes or Seth Beer relative to power. Dansby Swanson got 16 ABs at a true freshman at Vanderbilt. Andrew Benintendi was a .270 hitter with 1 HR as a freshman. These are two of the top 3 prospects in baseball now.

[Todd4State]

After watching us play last night- I don't think this is going to be a 2-3 year rebuild. If we had half the Tommy John surgeries we've had that alone would improve us a good bit. Taking Rigby out even though he has a groin issue hurts us a lot too. We're not getting blown out like Polk's team his last year or Cohen's his first two- we're losing a lot of 1-2 run games for the most part. Now, that said this team could certainly fall apart and get frustrated over the course of the next nine weeks and then we might get blown out then- but as of now that's not happening. If we're winning we also probably have fewer discipline problems as well or at least the need to make an example out of someone. Also this team right now in the field and on the mound is relying a lot on freshmen, sophomores, and new JUCO's- most of the Cohen's and Polk's bad teams were upperclassmen with maybe the exception of Cohen's 2015 team and we saw what happened to them in 2016.

And I'm not saying that there aren't offensive issues- but last night we only struck out 7 times and 3 of those were by Blaylock.

It may not be a rebuild- but I think it will be a reboot. We'll have a new stadium, probably some new coaches, and then we'll just have to see what happens with the draft as far as who we get coming in, who leaves, and also we have to see which pitchers come back from injury as we should start to see some of that starting to happen next year with Parker Ford, Andrew Mahoney, and maybe Noah Hughes and Jared Padgett the first up.

[was21]

Once a guy has been a head corch, and in this case having worked for the current AD, it's likely that some separation is in order.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

After watching us play last night- I don't think this is going to be a 2-3 year rebuild. If we had half the Tommy John surgeries we've had that alone would improve us a good bit. Taking Rigby out even though he has a groin issue hurts us a lot too. We're not getting blown out like Polk's team his last year or Cohen's his first two- we're losing a lot of 1-2 run games for the most part. Now, that said this team could certainly fall apart and get frustrated over the course of the next nine weeks and then we might get blown out then- but as of now that's not happening. If we're winning we also probably have fewer discipline problems as well or at least the need to make an example out of someone. Also this team right now in the field and on the mound is relying a lot on freshmen, sophomores, and new JUCO's- most of the Cohen's and Polk's bad teams were upperclassmen with maybe the exception of Cohen's 2015 team and we saw what happened to them in 2016.

And I'm not saying that there aren't offensive issues- but last night we only struck out 7 times and 3 of those were by Blaylock.

It may not be a rebuild- but I think it will be a reboot. We'll have a new stadium, probably some new coaches, and then we'll just have to see what happens with the draft as far as who we get coming in, who leaves, and also we have to see which pitchers come back from injury as we should start to see some of that starting to happen next year with Parker Ford, Andrew Mahoney, and maybe Noah Hughes and Jared Padgett the first up.

The situation certainly isn't as bad as people are making it out to be. If we had only lost 1-2 pitchers to tommy john rather than 7 + another with a groin problem, we would have had a great pitching staff and I think we could have finished within a few games of .500 in SEC play. But we are going to have to have some hitters step up for next season, which doesn't seem unreasonable to assume will happen.

What is the time frame on all of our TJ victims? I assumed all of them minus the 2 who have gone down since the season started would be ready to go or working back into being 100% by the beginning of next season. You seem to think otherwise..and I don't remember when each one got the surgery.

[Todd4State]

The situation certainly isn't as bad as people are making it out to be. If we had only lost 1-2 pitchers to tommy john rather than 7 + another with a groin problem, we would have had a great pitching staff and I think we could have finished within a few games of .500 in SEC play. But we are going to have to have some hitters step up for next season, which doesn't seem unreasonable to assume will happen.

What is the time frame on all of our TJ victims? I assumed all of them minus the 2 who have gone down since the season started would be ready to go or working back into being 100% by the beginning of next season. You seem to think otherwise..and I don't remember when each one got the surgery.

I can already tell you right now that we won't get all of them back by next season.

Ford and Mahoney are back but they're going to need this year to recover.

Noah Hughes will probably pitch some this summer in limited action. Not sure where yet. He's probably the closest besides the two I mentioned above to coming back.

Jared Padgett had Tommy John either in July or August. He should be able to participate in fall ball if all goes well and I think he will probably be about where Ford and Mahoney are right now next year, so probably 2018 for him.

Ethan Small had Tommy John during the fall sometime- I want to say October or November. He may be able to participate some in fall ball and then should be able to participate in the spring. Again, I expect him to be where Ford and Mahoney are now and then after pitching in the summer somewhere probably 2019 for him.

Keegan James and Kale Breaux both had their surgery this year so by this time next year, they are going to be about where Noah Hughes is right now. Well- Keegan should be able to pitch in very limited action but it will be about like Ford and Mahoney at best so maybe slightly ahead of where Hughes is right now. They'll probably be ready in 2019.

The other one is Blake Smith and his career is most likely over unless he finds an Independent League team or something like that in a couple of years. And his career is certainly over for us.

[The Federalist Engineer]

This. Not every freshman is Jake Mangum as far as AVG goes or Seth Beer relative to power. Dansby Swanson got 16 ABs at a true freshman at Vanderbilt. Andrew Benintendi was a .270 hitter with 1 HR as a freshman. These are two of the top 3 prospects in baseball now.

True - By the way, Seth Beer is a 250 hitter this year, but season is young

[The Federalist Engineer]

After watching us play last night- I don't think this is going to be a 2-3 year rebuild. If we had half the Tommy John surgeries we've had that alone would improve us a good bit. Taking Rigby out even though he has a groin issue hurts us a lot too. We're not getting blown out like Polk's team his last year or Cohen's his first two- we're losing a lot of 1-2 run games for the most part. Now, that said this team could certainly fall apart and get frustrated over the course of the next nine weeks and then we might get blown out then- but as of now that's not happening. If we're winning we also probably have fewer discipline problems as well or at least the need to make an example out of someone. Also this team right now in the field and on the mound is relying a lot on freshmen, sophomores, and new JUCO's- most of the Cohen's and Polk's bad teams were upperclassmen with maybe the exception of Cohen's 2015 team and we saw what happened to them in 2016.

And I'm not saying that there aren't offensive issues- but last night we only struck out 7 times and 3 of those were by Blaylock.

It may not be a rebuild- but I think it will be a reboot. We'll have a new stadium, probably some new coaches, and then we'll just have to see what happens with the draft as far as who we get coming in, who leaves, and also we have to see which pitchers come back from injury as we should start to see some of that starting to happen next year with Parker Ford, Andrew Mahoney, and maybe Noah Hughes and Jared Padgett the first up.

I think the best approach is consider them to be recovering for the 2018 draft and we are just their rehab location. If we get some performance that will be a bonus. Basically something between Paul Young and Brandon Woodruff. I am happy to be wrong here, but I would not want our coaches to bank on the TJs being war horses for MSU.

On top of the long recovery, you have their near total lack of experience. Padgett will come back with 2 innings of pitching experience and draft eligible. Same for Small, limited experience getting shelled last year and draft eligible. They are basically freshmen again and they were not really star freshmen like Chris George or Jonathan Holder.

I think our aspirations are better invested in the development of Ashcraft, Self, and McQuary. If our big recruit Bryant comes to campus, him too. That said, some colleges like TCU and LSU seem to get a career from TJs.

[KB21]

I think the best approach is consider them to be recovering for the 2018 draft and we are just their rehab location. If we get some performance that will be a bonus. Basically something between Paul Young and Brandon Woodruff. I am happy to be wrong here, but I would not want our coaches to bank on the TJs being war horses for MSU.

On top of the long recovery, you have their near total lack of experience. Padgett will come back with 2 innings of pitching experience and draft eligible. Same for Small, limited experience getting shelled last year and draft eligible. They are basically freshmen again and they were not really star freshmen like Chris George or Jonathan Holder.

I think our aspirations are better invested in the development of Ashcraft, Self, and McQuary. If our big recruit Bryant comes to campus, him too. That said, some colleges like TCU and LSU seem to get a career from TJs.

There's a reason for that. Approximately 80% of players who receive Tommy John surgery end up back at their previous level of play. So, we can probably anticipate that 1-2 of our current injuries to not be back, but we should expect 4-5 of them back, IMO. It may not be in 2018, so that year will have to be augmented by what we have on campus and what is coming in.

[WeWonItAll(Most)]

I can already tell you right now that we won't get all of them back by next season.

Ford and Mahoney are back but they're going to need this year to recover.

Noah Hughes will probably pitch some this summer in limited action. Not sure where yet. He's probably the closest besides the two I mentioned above to coming back.

Jared Padgett had Tommy John either in July or August. He should be able to participate in fall ball if all goes well and I think he will probably be about where Ford and Mahoney are right now next year, so probably 2018 for him.

Ethan Small had Tommy John during the fall sometime- I want to say October or November. He may be able to participate some in fall ball and then should be able to participate in the spring. Again, I expect him to be where Ford and Mahoney are now and then after pitching in the summer somewhere probably 2019 for him.

Keegan James and Kale Breaux both had their surgery this year so by this time next year, they are going to be about where Noah Hughes is right now. Well- Keegan should be able to pitch in very limited action but it will be about like Ford and Mahoney at best so maybe slightly ahead of where Hughes is right now. They'll probably be ready in 2019.

The other one is Blake Smith and his career is most likely over unless he finds an Independent League team or something like that in a couple of years. And his career is certainly over for us.

Gotcha, thanks for the run down. We've had so many I couldn't remember what order they had happened in. I forgot Blake Smith was a juco guy, he was going to be back at some point in my mind.

[Todd4State]

I think the best approach is consider them to be recovering for the 2018 draft and we are just their rehab location. If we get some performance that will be a bonus. Basically something between Paul Young and Brandon Woodruff. I am happy to be wrong here, but I would not want our coaches to bank on the TJs being war horses for MSU.

On top of the long recovery, you have their near total lack of experience. Padgett will come back with 2 innings of pitching experience and draft eligible. Same for Small, limited experience getting shelled last year and draft eligible. They are basically freshmen again and they were not really star freshmen like Chris George or Jonathan Holder.

I think our aspirations are better invested in the development of Ashcraft, Self, and McQuary. If our big recruit Bryant comes to campus, him too. That said, some colleges like TCU and LSU seem to get a career from TJs.

Based on other schools who have had pitchers with Tommy John who have come back and had success in college- I'm hoping to get one year out of them. Like KB said- statistically 1-2 won't ever make it back. With our MSU luck make it will probably be more than that.

Absolutely we should be invested in developing Ashcraft, Self, and McQuary. All three look very promising. We have some JUCO pitchers that might be able to help too- at least we need them to.

The only thing that will help us with the experience factor is summer ball. Some of our guys will get to play in those while they are recovering- and that will help some.

Getting one good year out of guys is basically just like when Butch was here.

[Todd4State]

Gotcha, thanks for the run down. We've had so many I couldn't remember what order they had happened in. I forgot Blake Smith was a juco guy, he was going to be back at some point in my mind.

Absolutely!

[bulldogcountry1]

As disappointed as I am, I agree that things probably aren't as bad as some are making them out to be. Of course, I don't know what's going on in the clubhouse. Things could go south really quickly if that isn't kept under control. I have faith in A.C., being a young HC and a good recruiter. Maybe he came in and was a bit too loose with the players to start with, and it kind of set a tone that he's having to reel in. He'll get that under control.


Even with all the preseason TJ losses, if we still had our opening day allotment of players, we would be very much competing for a regional.

Smith
Rigby
Stovall
Marrero
Breaux
Ford

But it's clear to see now that Smith and Breaux were never healthy. The biggest surprise to me is the lack of hitting, not pitching. Since the Marist game, the pitching staff has done more than enough to keep us in games. In the 7 losses since then, the staff has averaged 4.0 ER/game, and we have averaged 2.3 runs scored/game. So, I think we need to back off blaming Henderson and all the injuries right now, and look at the offensive side.