DD34's sanction predictions: Edition III

[Johnson85]

Yep, if I'm OM and the NCAA gives me two options...

(1) 50 scholarships over 6 years
or
(2) 1 year death penalty and then it's over.

I would consider option 2 very strongly.

Losing out on an entire season of football revenue makes it a no brainer to take 50 over 6, but If it weren't for the financials, the death penalty would probably be a little better.

With the death penalty, you sit out one year. In year two (2018), you have 25 scholarship freshmen and a bunch of walkons. You suck and your signed players suck because they know you suck. Year 3 (2019), you have 50 scholarship players, you still suck. Year 4 (2020) you have 75 scholarship players, there's light at the end of the tunnel even though you suck. Year 5 (2021) you are basically a bad Vandy team, and you can build from there.

If you take 50 over six years, you are mediocre for the next two to three years (2017-2019) (or suck if there are transfers), the bottom really drops out in 2020 and you don't really start rebuilding until at the earliest 2023, which is one year before scholarship reductions end and you hopefully can convince some recruits they'll have good jr. and sr. years if they sign then.

So in exchange for taking the death penalty, you give up a few years of mediocre football in exchange for being able to restart rebuilding two years earlier. As a fan, that's better. As the university, you can't afford to give up the one year of football revenue and those mediocre years probably bring more people to the university than the complete rebuild after death penaltyh would, which is important for student recruitment and alumni involvement, so it's probably a no brainer for the school to take the 50 over 6.

[WSOPdawg]

You're right, that's why the NCAA revised bylaw 19.9.7 on 8/7/2014...


When people start doing the math, they will start to realize that this is a real possibility. I agree that none of the violations individually amount to anything near severe enough to warrant the death penalty. It's just the shear number of Level I's that makes it a possibility. The NCAA knows what they are doing, they know the penalty matrix that they just created a couple years ago, and they know how many level I violations they alleged against OM.

Texas Southern had like 33 level I's over 13 sports 2 years ago, this was under the new penalty matrix. The NCAA said that they considered the death penalty. However, there wasn't just one sport that was bad enough to warrant it. OM's investigation is now focused on one sport. I really don't care what people say, the death penalty is without a doubt on the table.

This makes me do my happy dance!

[DeviousDawg]

While the things that the NCAA could not prove were not added to the NOA, they will be considered by the COI. Using simple logic, the COI can come to one conclusion:

Ole Miss was more than willing, and likely paid, every 4 or 5 star recruit that showed interest in receiving such inducements.

For instance, AJ Brown didn't talk, and without subpoena power, the NCAA couldn't prove anything on him. However, his high school teammate, and lower rated recruit, Kobe Jones, was offered and received recruiting inducements without ever even committing to OM. Would anyone in their right mind believe that AJ, who actually signed with OM, did not receive substantial recruiting inducements? especially when considering that he had a brand new shiny red ride shortly after signing day.

The NCAA knows, without even proving, that dozens of OM players and players families, have been on pay roll since the day that 2013 class was signed. Ole Miss can put together some bull shit story of how they are sooo compliant. At the same time, the NCAA can put together a much more logical story of how OM has created a minor league football team of sorts, with players and families of players receiving monthly payments.

The NCAA knows exactly what has been going on in Oxford, they don't need a $100,000+ allegation to understand it. OM taking this to the COI and trying to fight it is only going to make it worse for OM, believe that. It's just like court. When someone who is clearly guilty, doesn't take an offered plea bargain, there eventual punishment after their day in court is always worse than the plea bargain they turned down.

[DeviousDawg]

My guess has been a 4-5 year probationary period with:
40+ scholarships
2-3 year bowl ban
5+ year Show Cause for Freeze
Multiple other show causes.

This will soon become the popular guess for OM's penalties from the national talking heads. While my prediction has a high end of 66, that is purely just based off of addition, and I honestly don't expect it to get that high. There is no way they leave a team with 19 players, you might as well just hand down the death penalty. I think 55 is as high as they can go before saying 17 it, give em the death penalty. It's gonna be really interesting to see how they handle it.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

Ok. Thanks for sharing your knowledge on how all this works! Big help!!

[Interpolation_Dawg_EX]

I know there were 21 allegations in the amended NOA, but how many total individual violations do they have? 70+?

[Tbonewannabe]

I think one major, Albert Means type of violation would be preferable to this. With one, you can claim it's isolated. With this many, it outlines an organized trend.

Or some type of "Network"

[Todd4State]

Losing out on an entire season of football revenue makes it a no brainer to take 50 over 6, but If it weren't for the financials, the death penalty would probably be a little better.

With the death penalty, you sit out one year. In year two (2018), you have 25 scholarship freshmen and a bunch of walkons. You suck and your signed players suck because they know you suck. Year 3 (2019), you have 50 scholarship players, you still suck. Year 4 (2020) you have 75 scholarship players, there's light at the end of the tunnel even though you suck. Year 5 (2021) you are basically a bad Vandy team, and you can build from there.

If you take 50 over six years, you are mediocre for the next two to three years (2017-2019) (or suck if there are transfers), the bottom really drops out in 2020 and you don't really start rebuilding until at the earliest 2023, which is one year before scholarship reductions end and you hopefully can convince some recruits they'll have good jr. and sr. years if they sign then.

So in exchange for taking the death penalty, you give up a few years of mediocre football in exchange for being able to restart rebuilding two years earlier. As a fan, that's better. As the university, you can't afford to give up the one year of football revenue and those mediocre years probably bring more people to the university than the complete rebuild after death penaltyh would, which is important for student recruitment and alumni involvement, so it's probably a no brainer for the school to take the 50 over 6.

Are you certain that they would start with a full 25 scholarships after the death penalty? It seems to me like if a school was that bad at compliance they would start them off with 15 after the death penalty. You may be right- I'm honestly not sure what SMU's scholarship situation was after they got off the death penalty.

[Goldendawg]

They better hit them as hard as possible and keep a close watch during the 4 to 6 years of probation or I see "The Network" not dying but bringing in many high 3 and 4* "walk-on's". You will have to destroy the head of this snake or it will not die.