DD34's sanction predictions: Edition III

[ShotgunDawg]

The NCAA has a pickle here. 46-66 schollies is the Death Peanlty. OM will be Milsaps with all walk-ons. No way they could come close to competing.

Problem is, this is the first major case under the new penalty structure and the NCAA basically ruins precedent if they don't follow the letter of the law in this case.

OM is gonna get destroyed. No way around it.

[DeviousDawg]

The NCAA has a pickle here. 46-66 schollies is the Death Peanlty. OM will be Milsaps with all walk-ons. No way they could come close to competing.

Problem is, the is the first major case under the new penalty structure and the NCAA basically ruins precedent if they don't follow the letter of the law in this case.

OM is gonna get destroyed. No way around it.

Yep, if I'm OM and the NCAA gives me two options...

(1) 50 scholarships over 6 years
or
(2) 1 year death penalty and then it's over.

I would consider option 2 very strongly.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

I would much rather them NOT get the death penalty. That's like filing bankruptcy. They would get a clean slate and have the network up and running again much sooner

[Johnson85]

Yep, if I'm OM and the NCAA gives me two options...

(1) 50 scholarships over 6 years
or
(2) 1 year death penalty and then it's over.

I would consider option 2 very strongly.

Losing out on an entire season of football revenue makes it a no brainer to take 50 over 6, but If it weren't for the financials, the death penalty would probably be a little better.

With the death penalty, you sit out one year. In year two (2018), you have 25 scholarship freshmen and a bunch of walkons. You suck and your signed players suck because they know you suck. Year 3 (2019), you have 50 scholarship players, you still suck. Year 4 (2020) you have 75 scholarship players, there's light at the end of the tunnel even though you suck. Year 5 (2021) you are basically a bad Vandy team, and you can build from there.

If you take 50 over six years, you are mediocre for the next two to three years (2017-2019) (or suck if there are transfers), the bottom really drops out in 2020 and you don't really start rebuilding until at the earliest 2023, which is one year before scholarship reductions end and you hopefully can convince some recruits they'll have good jr. and sr. years if they sign then.

So in exchange for taking the death penalty, you give up a few years of mediocre football in exchange for being able to restart rebuilding two years earlier. As a fan, that's better. As the university, you can't afford to give up the one year of football revenue and those mediocre years probably bring more people to the university than the complete rebuild after death penaltyh would, which is important for student recruitment and alumni involvement, so it's probably a no brainer for the school to take the 50 over 6.

[Todd4State]

Losing out on an entire season of football revenue makes it a no brainer to take 50 over 6, but If it weren't for the financials, the death penalty would probably be a little better.

With the death penalty, you sit out one year. In year two (2018), you have 25 scholarship freshmen and a bunch of walkons. You suck and your signed players suck because they know you suck. Year 3 (2019), you have 50 scholarship players, you still suck. Year 4 (2020) you have 75 scholarship players, there's light at the end of the tunnel even though you suck. Year 5 (2021) you are basically a bad Vandy team, and you can build from there.

If you take 50 over six years, you are mediocre for the next two to three years (2017-2019) (or suck if there are transfers), the bottom really drops out in 2020 and you don't really start rebuilding until at the earliest 2023, which is one year before scholarship reductions end and you hopefully can convince some recruits they'll have good jr. and sr. years if they sign then.

So in exchange for taking the death penalty, you give up a few years of mediocre football in exchange for being able to restart rebuilding two years earlier. As a fan, that's better. As the university, you can't afford to give up the one year of football revenue and those mediocre years probably bring more people to the university than the complete rebuild after death penaltyh would, which is important for student recruitment and alumni involvement, so it's probably a no brainer for the school to take the 50 over 6.

Are you certain that they would start with a full 25 scholarships after the death penalty? It seems to me like if a school was that bad at compliance they would start them off with 15 after the death penalty. You may be right- I'm honestly not sure what SMU's scholarship situation was after they got off the death penalty.

[WSOPdawg]

The NCAA has a pickle here. 46-66 schollies is the Death Peanlty. OM will be Milsaps with all walk-ons. No way they could come close to competing.

Problem is, this is the first major case under the new penalty structure and the NCAA basically ruins precedent if they don't follow the letter of the law in this case.

OM is gonna get destroyed. No way around it.

If the NCAA doesn't adhere to their new penalty structure, they lose all credibility and are basically rendered useless in terms of their enforcement policing abilities. They have no choice.