DD34's sanction predictions: Edition III

[DeviousDawg]

Here is a post I made in August...

Revised Ole Miss sanctions prediction: Maroon Friday Edition
Hey Rebs, remember about a month ago when I made a prediction on your future sanctions? You all laughed and said "DD34 and the rest of the guys over on ED are delusional. 15 over 3 at the most and Freeze is fine". Well, if you don't remember it, even though I know you do, here is the original post below. Remember, this is only based on what is on the original NOA that you received in late January.

Originally Posted by DeviousDawg
When you really look into the NOA and compare it to previous NCAA investigations, Ole Miss's self imposed sanctions are a joke. The actual sanctions should at least double the self imposed sanctions.

When looking through the NOA, it really breaks into 4 parts, the Tunsil stuff (allegations 1-4), the Kiffin stuff (allegations 5-7), the Walter Hughes stuff (allegation 8) and the ACT stuff (allegations 10-13). Allegation 9 was a BS level III violation involving recruiting videos. The fairest way to estimate OM's sanctions would be to treat each of the 4 parts as separate investigations and add the results from each.

Part 1: Tunsil

We can compare Tunsil's allegations to our own with Redmond. We gave Redmond a $2500 discount on a vehicle. We got 4 schollies over 2 years and 2 year probation, Mirando received a 1 year show cause. It should also be considered that we self reported all of this and cooperated fully with the NCAA who accepted our self imposed sanctions

Ole Miss is accused of giving Tunsil $7,495 worth of free car loans in allegation #1. Allegation #2 is really just an extension of #1, it says that after Tunsil was caught using free cars, he did it again, and Ole Miss failed to monitor whether he was continuing to do it. This isn't good for them because while #2 is only a level II violation, it will most certainly make #1 become an aggravated Level I violation. Allegation #3 is a booster giving Miller $800. #4 involves free lodging and stuff for Tunsil's family worth $2,253. So that's a total of $10,548 worth of inducements to Tunsil and fam as well as a failure to monitor.

When compared to our 4 schollies and 2 years of probation, OM's allegations 1-4 should be worth at least double but probably triple what we got for Redmond's stuff.

Conservative guess for allegations 1-4:

8-12 scholarships
3 years probation
1 year bowl ban


Part 2: Kiffin

These allegations aren't too serious. There were 2 level III allegations, one for talking to a recruit during spring evaluation period, one for letting a recruit stay at his house. There was also one level II allegation which involved Kiffin setting up lodging, transportation and meals for family friends of a recruit, the monetary total of the inducements was worth $1027.

Conservative guess for allegation 5-7:

1-2 scholarships
possible 1 year show cause for Kiffin but most likely a suspension of some sort.


Part 3: Walter Hughes

This one could go so many different ways. There are 16 sub violations in the Level I allegation #8. All involve Walter Hughes and recruiting inducements. Three assistant coaches (Harris, Kiffin, and Matt Luke) and Hugh Freeze are listed in this allegation. All are said to have been contacted by Hughes while knowingly committing NCAA recruiting violations. So throw ignorance on OM's part of the window for this violation, which is never good.

The total monetary value for allegation #8 was $2,250. It involved 4 current coaches, 3 recruits and one booster. If we got 4 scholarships for $2,500 worth of inducements to Redmond, involving 1 coach, 1 recruit and 1 booster with exemplary cooperation on our part, then you would have to put the lowest amount of scholarships docked for this allegation at 4.

Conservative guess for allegation 8:

4-8 scholarships
1-2 years probation
2 year show cause for Maurice Harris


Part 4: ACT scandal

Let's compare this to ULL's case, they are actually very similar. ULL had 4 level I violations, so did OM. The first one for each schools was about fixing ACT scores. ULL's involved one coach and 6 recruits. OM's involved 3 coaches and 3 recruits, one of which is still on staff in Derrick Nix, who put the recruits families in contact with Saunders and the Crager(sp?) lady to receive free lodging, transportation and meals, similar to Mirando's case. The second allegations for both schools involved improper inducements to recruits. ULL's was worth $6,500 while OM's was worth $1650. The last 2 allegations for both schools involved coaches lying to the NCAA during investigations, just Saunders for ULL; Saunders and Vaughn for OM.

The NCAA stated that ULL received the lowest possible penalties for their violations(11 scholarships over 3 years and 2 years of probation) because the University was unaware of Saunders actions and acted swiftly to fire him and self report as well as cooperate fully with the NCAA. Well, Ole Miss can't really say the same because Nix is STILL ON STAFF. There's a reason Ole Miss is fighting Nix's involvement, but they aren't going to win it. All of this leads me to believe that, if ULL received the lowest possible penalties that OM would at least have to get 11 schollies for the ACT allegations.

Conservative guess for allegations 10-13:

11-14 scholarships
1-2 year show cause for Nix
8 year show cause for Vaughn
1 year bowl ban

Adding all 4 parts together for a final estimate:

24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke

Seems harsh, but when you really break it down into it's components I think that is a well educated and fair estimate.

Now that your memory has been jogged, I will add to my predictions. These predictions are based on what the sanctions will look like after the addendum to the NOA. The predictions are based off facts that I am hearing on who is now talking after receiving immunity. I can tell you one thing, some of the things that will come out over the next 6 months will shake the network down to its very core..... I am writing this with the hopes that you will accept this so that you are not Blindsided when the facts come out.

Original Sanctions:
24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke


Revised Sanctions with the addendum in mind:
30-40 scholarships
5 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-5 year Show Causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, and Hugh Freeze
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control

I keep hearing Ole Miss fans saying, "well, no one has been fired so we are obviously OK". Let's talk about this. Remember our Redmond deal? What did we do? We immediately fired Angelo Mirando, this was for a violation only worth 4 scholarships. Remember the Bo Davis/Alabama situation early in the Summer? Nick Saban found out that Bo Davis was visiting recruits during a no contact period, what did Saban do? Immediately fire Bo Davis. Actually, that exact violation is on OM's original NOA, but no one has been fired. Why has no one been fired at OM? Because every single one of your coaches is guilty, they know it and Freeze knows it. If Freeze fired a coach for something that he told the assistant coach to do, you can bet your ass that that coach would take advantage of the immunity deal and take down Freeze and Ole Miss on a level that hasn't been seen since SMU. Let that sink in.

Enjoy your last supper of a season this year, but just remember, no matter how this season turns out for y'all, it will always have a big ole asterisk next to it. At this point the only question is whether the NCAA chooses death row or life in prison. Pick your poison Rebels, you asked for it, and you will get everything you deserve.

Happy Maroon Friday to all!

Now that the addendum is out, I can more accurately revise my original predictions, note that I did predict the Lack of Institutional Control back in August...

PART 5: THE ADDENDUM

Part 5(a): Lack of Institutional Control:

Looking at previous lack of institutional control cases:

Ole Miss 1994: included improper benefits from staff members and boosters. 24 scholarships over 2 years.
Kentucky 2002: included failure to monitor by head coach, improper recruiting by boosters and coaches. 19 scholarships over 3 years and a one year bowl ban.
Alabama 2002: included impermissible recruiting and extra benefits. 21 scholarships over 3 years and 2 year bowl ban.

Conservative guess for just the LOIC charge:

10-12 scholarships
1 year bowl ban


Part 5(b): Impermissible benefit's allegations: (includes addendum allegations 2, 4, 5, 7)

-Allegation #2- former staff member providing 2 prospective student athletes with $2,272 in lodging/transportation and $235 in meals.
-Allegation #4- Barney initiated and facilitated two boosters having impermissible contact with two boosters having impermissible contact with Prospective student athlete B. The value of the allegation of the alleged inducements was in between $13,000-$15,600.
-Allegation #5- two different former coaches arranged for 3 different Prospective Student Athletes to receive merchandise from a booster owned business over a 3 year span. The recruiting inducements had an alleged value of $2,800.
-Allegation #7- A booster provided Prospective Student Athlete B with food and drinks. The recruiting inducements had an alleged value between $200-$600.

In total:

$18,507-$21,507 in recruiting inducements
involves 2 different former coaches, 4 different recruits, 2 boosters, and 1 booster owned business

Very conservative guess for part 5(b):

8-12 scholarships
1 year bowl ban


Part 5(c): Coaching allegations: (includes addendum allegations 3 and 8)

-Allegation #3: Barney violated the NCAA principles of ethical conduct when he knowingly committed recruiting violations and knowingly provided false or misleading info to the NCAA.
-Allegation #8: Freeze violated head coach responsibility legislation.

These allegations will be more focused on show causes more than anything.

Looking at OM's women's basketball and track cases:

-The former OM Women's head basketball coach was charged with head coach responsibility legislation and received a 2 year show cause.
-The former OM Women's basketball coach was charged with violation of ethical conduct and received a 6 year show cause
-The former OM Women's director of basketball operations was charged with violation of ethical conduct and received a 6 year show cause.
-The former OM head track coach was charged with head coach responsibility legislation and received a 1 year show cause.
-The women's basketball team was docked 2 scholarships over 1 year, which is equal to about 11 scholarships in football, but this also takes into account the impermissible recruiting.

Both the head basketball and track coach got their respective show causes based off two assistant coaches involved in impermissible recruiting and/or violation of ethical conduct. Freeze will have at least 4 different assistant coaches, and will be punished more harshly than the women's basketball coach and track coach.

Conservative guess for part 5(c):

4-6 scholarships
6-10 year show cause for Barney
2-5 year show cause for Freeze

Original NOA Santion Estimation(7/21/16):

24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke

Original Revised NOA Sanction Estimation with future addendum in mind(8/26/16):

30-40 scholarships
5 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-5 year Show Causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, and Hugh Freeze
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control

Addendum allegations only Sanction Estimation(2/24/17):

22-30 scholarships
2 year bowl ban
6-10 year show cause for Barney
2-5 year show cause for Freeze

Final Revised NOA Sanction Estimation including actual addendum(2/24/17):

46-66 scholarships
5-6 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-10 year show causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, Hugh Freeze and Barney Farrar
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control(CONFIRMED)

Happy Maroon Friday to all!

[Technetium]

PART 5: THE ADDENDUM

[INDENT]Part 5(a): Lack of Institutional Control:

Looking at previous lack of institutional control cases:

Ole Miss 1994: included improper benefits from staff members and boosters. 24 scholarships over 2 years.
Kentucky 2002: included failure to monitor by head coach, improper recruiting by boosters and coaches. 19 scholarships over 3 years and a one year bowl ban.
Alabama 2002: included impermissible recruiting and extra benefits. 21 scholarships over 3 years and 2 year bowl ban.

Conservative guess for just the LOIC charge:

10-12 scholarships
1 year bowl ban

While I love reading these posts, I'm curious how you differentiated the LOIC-value of scholarship/bans/etc. vs the individual infractions from those previous cases. For example, in Bama's 2002 case, was that the total penalty for all of their allegations? If so, are you then just trying to subjectively estimate the penalty-value of the LOIC designation vs the individual misconduct allegations?

[DeviousDawg]

While I love reading these posts, I'm curious how you differentiated the LOIC-value of scholarship/bans/etc. vs the individual infractions from those previous cases. For example, in Bama's 2002 case, was that the total penalty for all of their allegations? If so, are you then just trying to subjectively estimate the penalty-value of the LOIC designation vs the individual misconduct allegations?

It's just a guess, I basically assumed that the LOIC accounted for about half of the scholarship penalties in each investigation, and I was probably low balling. Under the new penalty matrix, an aggravated level I violation, which is what LOIC falls under, has a scholarship penalty range of 25%-50%. Following that, one could say that the LOIC itself would account for 21-42 scholarships. Under the new penalty matrix, with all 15 Level I allegations in mind, they should literally be docked over 100 scholarships. However, they won't use scholarships as a penalty for each allegation, some will go towards probation, some towards bowl bans, some towards show causes, some towards fines and some towards recruiting limitations.

I do feel confident that the scholarship reductions will be 40+.

[GreenheadDawg]

I would be Satisfied with that

[WSOPdawg]

It's just a guess, I basically assumed that the LOIC accounted for about half of the scholarship penalties in each investigation, and I was probably low balling. Under the new penalty matrix, an aggravated level I violation, which is what LOIC falls under, has a scholarship penalty range of 25%-50%. Following that, one could say that the LOIC itself would account for 21-42 scholarships. Under the new penalty matrix, with all 15 Level I allegations in mind, they should literally be docked over 100 scholarships. However, they won't use scholarships as a penalty for each allegation, some will go towards probation, some towards bowl bans, some towards show causes, some towards fines and some towards recruiting limitations.

I do feel confident that the scholarship reductions will be 40+.

Agree if just for the lack of contrition displayed by TCUN up until this point. And nice work DD34.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

If it is anywhere close to 60 scholarships they will be terrible for many years. What a beautiful day it is today!! Birds chirping, sun shining, breeze blowing!!!!!

[ShotgunDawg]

The NCAA has a pickle here. 46-66 schollies is the Death Peanlty. OM will be Milsaps with all walk-ons. No way they could come close to competing.

Problem is, this is the first major case under the new penalty structure and the NCAA basically ruins precedent if they don't follow the letter of the law in this case.

OM is gonna get destroyed. No way around it.

[DeviousDawg]

15 level I violations. If each level I accounted for just 3 scholarships, you are looking at 45 scholarships. If each level I accounted for just 4 scholarships, you are looking at 60 scholarships. When you put it that way, 45-60 scholarships doesn't just sound reasonable, but likely.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

I know they are contesting many of those. Any chance any of the Level 1's get lowered?

[DeviousDawg]

The NCAA has a pickle here. 46-66 schollies is the Death Peanlty. OM will be Milsaps with all walk-ons. No way they could come close to competing.

Problem is, the is the first major case under the new penalty structure and the NCAA basically ruins precedent if they don't follow the letter of the law in this case.

OM is gonna get destroyed. No way around it.

Yep, if I'm OM and the NCAA gives me two options...

(1) 50 scholarships over 6 years
or
(2) 1 year death penalty and then it's over.

I would consider option 2 very strongly.

[Dawg-gone-dawgs]

I would much rather them NOT get the death penalty. That's like filing bankruptcy. They would get a clean slate and have the network up and running again much sooner

[3rdGen]

[ShotgunDawg]

At least Kansas fans have basketball to get excited about.

[DeviousDawg]

I know they are contesting many of those. Any chance any of the Level 1's get lowered?

I see 2 of the 15 level I violations that they have a shot at getting lowered, allegation #3 in the original NOA($800 in cash to tunsils step dad) and allegation #7 in the addendum($200-$600 in food and drinks to Leo).

It honestly means nothing if they are lowered to a level II though. It's stupid that this is even a thing, because a level II violation can be worse than a level I violation, it just depends on how the COI rules them, mitigated, standard or aggravated. For instance:

A standard level II violation carries the same weight as a mitigated Level I violation. Similarly, an aggravated Level II violations carries the same weight as a standard Level I violation. So even if they get lowered to a level II, if they are ruled a standard level II violation, they are essentially the same thing as a mitigated Level I violation.

The only way an allegation can actually get lowered to a level II penalty wise, is if a level I violation is first lowered to a level II, then ruled as the weakest variety level II, a mitaged Level II violation. I don't see that happening with any of them.

So to answer your question, can any of the level I violations get lowered to a Level II? Yes, on paper; but no, penalty wise, and that's all that matters.

[breazy]

Per the penalty chart a std lvl 1 violation is good for a minimum of 11.5% scholarship reduction that is 9.775 scholarships. The question will be how the NCAA applies this penalty to each of the 15 allegations.

I dont believe ther penalt matrix is set up for cases of this magnitude and it will be intersting to see how they hanle this

[WSOPdawg]

The NCAA has a pickle here. 46-66 schollies is the Death Peanlty. OM will be Milsaps with all walk-ons. No way they could come close to competing.

Problem is, this is the first major case under the new penalty structure and the NCAA basically ruins precedent if they don't follow the letter of the law in this case.

OM is gonna get destroyed. No way around it.

If the NCAA doesn't adhere to their new penalty structure, they lose all credibility and are basically rendered useless in terms of their enforcement policing abilities. They have no choice.

[DeviousDawg]

I dont believe ther penalt matrix is set up for cases of this magnitude and it will be intersting to see how they hanle this

You're right, that's why the NCAA revised bylaw 19.9.7 on 8/7/2014...




When people start doing the math, they will start to realize that this is a real possibility. I agree that none of the violations individually amount to anything near severe enough to warrant the death penalty. It's just the shear number of Level I's that makes it a possibility. The NCAA knows what they are doing, they know the penalty matrix that they just created a couple years ago, and they know how many level I violations they alleged against OM.

Texas Southern had like 33 level I's over 13 sports 2 years ago, this was under the new penalty matrix. The NCAA said that they considered the death penalty. However, there wasn't just one sport that was bad enough to warrant it. OM's investigation is now focused on one sport. I really don't care what people say, the death penalty is without a doubt on the table.

[ShotgunDawg]

You're right, that's why the NCAA revised bylaw 19.9.7 on 8/7/2014...




When people start doing the math, they will start to realize that this is a real possibility. I agree that none of the violations individually amount to anything near severe enough to warrant the death penalty. It's just the shear number of Level I's that makes it a possibility. The NCAA knows what they are doing, they know the penalty matrix that they just created a couple years ago, and they know how many level I violations they alleged against OM.

Texas Southern had like 33 level I's over 13 sports 2 years ago, this was under the new penalty matrix. The NCAA said that they considered the death penalty. However, there wasn't just one sport that was bad enough to warrant it. OM's investigation is now focused on one sport. I really don't care what people say, the death penalty is without a doubt on the table.

I think one major, Albert Means type of violation would be preferable to this. With one, you can claim it's isolated. With this many, it outlines an organized trend.

[Political Hack]

My guess has been a 4-5 year probationary period with:
40+ scholarships
2-3 year bowl ban
5+ year Show Cause for Freeze
Multiple other show causes.

[Gutter Cobreh]

15 level I violations. If each level I accounted for just 3 scholarships, you are looking at 45 scholarships. If each level I accounted for just 4 scholarships, you are looking at 60 scholarships. When you put it that way, 45-60 scholarships doesn't just sound reasonable, but likely.

Thanks for taking the time to break this down. Major props!

I would move this to a Sticky, paste it at the top of the 1st page, and rename "All Reb Lurkers Please Click Here for Your Fate". It saves them time from searching and also places it closer to an ad for them to click while they are here.