Here is a post I made in August...
Revised Ole Miss sanctions prediction: Maroon Friday Edition
Hey Rebs, remember about a month ago when I made a prediction on your future sanctions? You all laughed and said "DD34 and the rest of the guys over on ED are delusional. 15 over 3 at the most and Freeze is fine". Well, if you don't remember it, even though I know you do, here is the original post below. Remember, this is only based on what is on the original NOA that you received in late January.
Originally Posted by DeviousDawg
When you really look into the NOA and compare it to previous NCAA investigations, Ole Miss's self imposed sanctions are a joke. The actual sanctions should at least double the self imposed sanctions.
When looking through the NOA, it really breaks into 4 parts, the Tunsil stuff (allegations 1-4), the Kiffin stuff (allegations 5-7), the Walter Hughes stuff (allegation 8) and the ACT stuff (allegations 10-13). Allegation 9 was a BS level III violation involving recruiting videos. The fairest way to estimate OM's sanctions would be to treat each of the 4 parts as separate investigations and add the results from each.
Part 1: Tunsil
We can compare Tunsil's allegations to our own with Redmond. We gave Redmond a $2500 discount on a vehicle. We got 4 schollies over 2 years and 2 year probation, Mirando received a 1 year show cause. It should also be considered that we self reported all of this and cooperated fully with the NCAA who accepted our self imposed sanctions
Ole Miss is accused of giving Tunsil $7,495 worth of free car loans in allegation #1. Allegation #2 is really just an extension of #1, it says that after Tunsil was caught using free cars, he did it again, and Ole Miss failed to monitor whether he was continuing to do it. This isn't good for them because while #2 is only a level II violation, it will most certainly make #1 become an aggravated Level I violation. Allegation #3 is a booster giving Miller $800. #4 involves free lodging and stuff for Tunsil's family worth $2,253. So that's a total of $10,548 worth of inducements to Tunsil and fam as well as a failure to monitor.
When compared to our 4 schollies and 2 years of probation, OM's allegations 1-4 should be worth at least double but probably triple what we got for Redmond's stuff.
Conservative guess for allegations 1-4:
8-12 scholarships
3 years probation
1 year bowl ban
Part 2: Kiffin
These allegations aren't too serious. There were 2 level III allegations, one for talking to a recruit during spring evaluation period, one for letting a recruit stay at his house. There was also one level II allegation which involved Kiffin setting up lodging, transportation and meals for family friends of a recruit, the monetary total of the inducements was worth $1027.
Conservative guess for allegation 5-7:
1-2 scholarships
possible 1 year show cause for Kiffin but most likely a suspension of some sort.
Part 3: Walter Hughes
This one could go so many different ways. There are 16 sub violations in the Level I allegation #8. All involve Walter Hughes and recruiting inducements. Three assistant coaches (Harris, Kiffin, and Matt Luke) and Hugh Freeze are listed in this allegation. All are said to have been contacted by Hughes while knowingly committing NCAA recruiting violations. So throw ignorance on OM's part of the window for this violation, which is never good.
The total monetary value for allegation #8 was $2,250. It involved 4 current coaches, 3 recruits and one booster. If we got 4 scholarships for $2,500 worth of inducements to Redmond, involving 1 coach, 1 recruit and 1 booster with exemplary cooperation on our part, then you would have to put the lowest amount of scholarships docked for this allegation at 4.
Conservative guess for allegation 8:
4-8 scholarships
1-2 years probation
2 year show cause for Maurice Harris
Part 4: ACT scandal
Let's compare this to ULL's case, they are actually very similar. ULL had 4 level I violations, so did OM. The first one for each schools was about fixing ACT scores. ULL's involved one coach and 6 recruits. OM's involved 3 coaches and 3 recruits, one of which is still on staff in Derrick Nix, who put the recruits families in contact with Saunders and the Crager(sp?) lady to receive free lodging, transportation and meals, similar to Mirando's case. The second allegations for both schools involved improper inducements to recruits. ULL's was worth $6,500 while OM's was worth $1650. The last 2 allegations for both schools involved coaches lying to the NCAA during investigations, just Saunders for ULL; Saunders and Vaughn for OM.
The NCAA stated that ULL received the lowest possible penalties for their violations(11 scholarships over 3 years and 2 years of probation) because the University was unaware of Saunders actions and acted swiftly to fire him and self report as well as cooperate fully with the NCAA. Well, Ole Miss can't really say the same because Nix is STILL ON STAFF. There's a reason Ole Miss is fighting Nix's involvement, but they aren't going to win it. All of this leads me to believe that, if ULL received the lowest possible penalties that OM would at least have to get 11 schollies for the ACT allegations.
Conservative guess for allegations 10-13:
11-14 scholarships
1-2 year show cause for Nix
8 year show cause for Vaughn
1 year bowl ban
Adding all 4 parts together for a final estimate:
24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke
Seems harsh, but when you really break it down into it's components I think that is a well educated and fair estimate.
Now that your memory has been jogged, I will add to my predictions. These predictions are based on what the sanctions will look like after the addendum to the NOA. The predictions are based off facts that I am hearing on who is now talking after receiving immunity. I can tell you one thing, some of the things that will come out over the next 6 months will shake the network down to its very core..... I am writing this with the hopes that you will accept this so that you are not Blindsided when the facts come out.
Original Sanctions:
24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke
Revised Sanctions with the addendum in mind:
30-40 scholarships
5 years of probation
2-3 year bowl ban
2-5 year Show Causes for: Derrick Nix, Maurice Harris, and Hugh Freeze
Suspensions for: Chris Kiffin and Matt Luke
Lack of Institutional Control
I keep hearing Ole Miss fans saying, "well, no one has been fired so we are obviously OK". Let's talk about this. Remember our Redmond deal? What did we do? We immediately fired Angelo Mirando, this was for a violation only worth 4 scholarships. Remember the Bo Davis/Alabama situation early in the Summer? Nick Saban found out that Bo Davis was visiting recruits during a no contact period, what did Saban do? Immediately fire Bo Davis. Actually, that exact violation is on OM's original NOA, but no one has been fired. Why has no one been fired at OM? Because every single one of your coaches is guilty, they know it and Freeze knows it. If Freeze fired a coach for something that he told the assistant coach to do, you can bet your ass that that coach would take advantage of the immunity deal and take down Freeze and Ole Miss on a level that hasn't been seen since SMU. Let that sink in.
Enjoy your last supper of a season this year, but just remember, no matter how this season turns out for y'all, it will always have a big ole asterisk next to it. At this point the only question is whether the NCAA chooses death row or life in prison. Pick your poison Rebels, you asked for it, and you will get everything you deserve.
Happy Maroon Friday to all!
Originally Posted by DeviousDawg34
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