Gulf Coast better dig in........

[BrunswickDawg]

This is the first time in 16 years that I have not been on a disaster prep/disaster recovery team related to my job. I spent every summer obsessing about hurricane season and staying vigilant on storm tracks and forecasts. Due to a job change, I finally get to only care if they say "storm is coming", and what happens? I get to spend the next week obsessing about it due to a HS football game in Orlando next Thursday and then going to the South Alabama game. Thanks guys!***

[TheRef]

This is the first time in 16 years that I have not been on a disaster prep/disaster recovery team related to my job. I spent every summer obsessing about hurricane season and staying vigilant on storm tracks and forecasts. Due to a job change, I finally get to only care if they say "storm is coming", and what happens? I get to spend the next week obsessing about it due to a HS football game in Orlando next Thursday and then going to the South Alabama game. Thanks guys!***

We aim to please, man.

[MSUDawg99]

So going to Perdido key/orange beach next wed/thur not the best of ideas?

Yeah that was my plan...to go next wknd for the holiday. Ugh.

[starkvegasdawg]

This is the first time in 16 years that I have not been on a disaster prep/disaster recovery team related to my job. I spent every summer obsessing about hurricane season and staying vigilant on storm tracks and forecasts. Due to a job change, I finally get to only care if they say "storm is coming", and what happens? I get to spend the next week obsessing about it due to a HS football game in Orlando next Thursday and then going to the South Alabama game. Thanks guys!***

[tireddawg]

We're not freaking out, we're simply discussing possibilities. We're not telling people to evacuate right now and prepare for a Category 5 hurricane. But it's something to watch, and think about what could happen.

What do you know.****

[Taog Redloh]

This is the first time in 16 years that I have not been on a disaster prep/disaster recovery team related to my job. I spent every summer obsessing about hurricane season and staying vigilant on storm tracks and forecasts. Due to a job change, I finally get to only care if they say "storm is coming", and what happens? I get to spend the next week obsessing about it due to a HS football game in Orlando next Thursday and then going to the South Alabama game. Thanks guys!***

It does seem like every year when I really get fired up for football (like I am this year) some bullshit hurricane comes along and knocks out have the SE United States, and half the games don't get played. At minimum, some tropical depression dumps a billion gallons of water on Florida or Louisiana.

[HancockCountyDog]

It does seem like every year when I really get fired up for football (like I am this year) some bullshit hurricane comes along and knocks out have the SE United States, and half the games don't get played. At minimum, some tropical depression dumps a billion gallons of water on Florida or Louisiana.

Im really sorry Hurricane season has interupted your college football viewing experience. I really hope the weather doesn'tt bother you this football season.

Sincerely,

Every MSU fan living on the MS Gulf Coast.

[Commercecomet24]

Appreciate all the info from the weather experts. Living in South Mississippi it's good to know what's going on. Thanks y'all and keep the info coming on this thing. I pray nothing else hits the already flooded areas. If it does they might as well just close up south Louisiana.

[Bama_Dawg]

Looks like this storm could be strong. As of a few hours ago it looks like Ms/Ala.

Just saying, I do storm restoration logistics work for power companies.

We ready man. At least those that have lived here a while and understand and respect these things. As for the rest of the folks...if its bad, they'll come to respect it, or something bad may happen.

Rode out Frederick, Elena, Juan (go look at the track on that one), Georges, Katrina, and other little ones along the way...we ready...

Hate to say it, but its been 11 years...we are kinda due.

[starkvegasdawg]

What's infuriating is none of the models even have half a clue where it is going. The normally reliable Euro had about a 600 mile swing between runs on where it would make a Gulf landfall. I'm far from a weather expert, but had I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night I would put my money on it crossing south FL and entering the Gulf sometime late this weekend. After that all bets are currently off. It could go anywhere from Galveston to Tampa and be anywhere from a tropical storm to a major hurricane. It looks like the biggest unknown is going to be a ridge of high pressure up in New England. If it stays strong it will push it more westerly. If it weakens or shifts east then that will allow for it to turn north and stay in the eastern Gulf. A hybrid combination of those two scenarios puts it looking the MS/AL coast squarely in the eye.

This is not unprecedented. This time several years ago we had another little storm by the name of Katrina that nobody knew where it was going to end up. The forecast cone was anywhere from the west FL coast to eastern LA.

[BrunswickDawg]

We ready man. At least those that have lived here a while and understand and respect these things. As for the rest of the folks...if its bad, they'll come to respect it, or something bad may happen.

Rode out Frederick, Elena, Juan (go look at the track on that one), Georges, Katrina, and other little ones along the way...we ready...

Hate to say it, but its been 11 years...we are kinda due.

Won't catch me riding one out. TS Tammy in '05 and TS Faye in '08 made me realize how bad the flooding will be here - let alone the wind damage. I'll be headed to higher ground when we finally get a real storm on the GA coast.

[basedog]

This is the report I get, it doesn't copy and paste the cone but the Euro Model has moved it from Ms Gulf Coast to Pensacola, it also reduced it intensity as you can see. I've worked hurricanes, ice storms and tornadoes all over the country, the devastation I've seen is undescribable, (since 1999). All I can say people are much more informed and pro active now days.


Disturbance 26 Advisory 22

Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Wednesday August 24, 2016

Disturbance 26 Track Chart, Advisory #22



Current Position: 18.8N / 65.9W
Geographical Reference: 30 miles north of San Juan, PR
Max Sustained Winds: 40 mph gusting 50 mph
Movement: West-northwest at 16 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 (1 size / 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 21 (13 size / 8 intensity)
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Organizational Trend: Slowly getting better organized
Development Chances Over the Next 7 Days: 90 percent
Forecast Confidence: Below Average

Changes From Our Previous Advisory
Model guidance has become more divergent on the track beyond the next 3-4 days. The European model, which had been predicting landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border shifted well to the east - to the eastern Florida Panhandle in this morning's run. The American model shifted from a track across the Gulf to a track east of Florida. With all the uncertainty, we have only nudged the track a little to the east across the Gulf in this advisory. Landfall was shifted from near Biloxi, MS to near Pensacola, FL on Wednesday morning. There are no other significant changes.

Our Forecast
A recon plane investigated the disturbance this morning and found winds above tropical storm strength, though the plane could not find a well-defined circulation center. We think that once the circulation becomes better defined, possibly tomorrow, the disturbance will be upgraded to a tropical storm. Some slow strengthening will be possible as the storm tracks across the Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Building high pressure along the East U.S. Coast this weekend is forecast to turn the storm westward across the southern Florida Peninsula. Beyond then, track uncertainty increases significantly.

Conditions across the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico are expected to be quite favorable for strengthening. Because of this, we are forecasting the max winds to reach 100 mph prior to landfall on Wednesday morning. Though we are forecasting a landfall near Pensacola in this advisory, the final landfall could be anywhere from the Texas/Louisiana coast to the Florida Peninsula. This final landfall point will likely be changing in future advisories.

Expected Impacts On Land
Northeast Caribbean Islands: Gusty winds and squalls are possible through today and Thursday as this disturbance moves across the region. Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches with locally heavier amounts up to 8 inches will be possible, resulting in flooding in some areas.

Northern Bahamas to South Florida Peninsula: Tropical storm conditions are likely this coming weekend, resulting in scattered power outages. Heavy squalls may produce 5-10 inches of rain, resulting in significant flooding of some areas.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Northern Gulf Lease Areas: Squalls could reach the deepwater lease areas offshore southeast Louisiana as early as Monday mid to late afternoon. That means that the last guaranteed day for good helicopter flying weather may be Sunday. It's possible that much of Monday will be flyable, but you can't count on that. Hurricane conditions are likely by Tuesday afternoon/evening as the center tracks toward the mid Gulf coast.

Our next advisory will be issued by 10PM EDT


Forecast Confidence: Below Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3PM CDT Wed Aug 24 18.80N 65.90W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Disturbance 1 1 2
12 3AM CDT Thu Aug 25 20.10N 68.80W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Disturbance 1 1 2
24 3PM CDT Thu Aug 25 21.20N 71.10W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
36 3AM CDT Fri Aug 26 22.20N 73.00W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
48 3PM CDT Fri Aug 26 23.20N 74.80W 50 mph 65 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
60 3AM CDT Sat Aug 27 24.20N 76.50W 60 mph 70 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
72 3PM CDT Sat Aug 27 24.70N 78.20W 65 mph 75 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
84 3AM CDT Sun Aug 28 25.00N 80.00W 65 mph 80 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
96 3PM CDT Sun Aug 28 25.20N 81.90W 75 mph 85 mph Category 1 6 5 11
108 3AM CDT Mon Aug 29 25.70N 83.60W 80 mph 100 mph Category 1 7 5 12
120 3PM CDT Mon Aug 29 26.40N 85.00W 85 mph 105 mph Category 1 8 6 14
132 3AM CDT Tue Aug 30 27.50N 86.00W 90 mph 110 mph Category 1 9 7 16
144 3PM CDT Tue Aug 30 29.00N 86.50W 100 mph 115 mph Category 2 13 8 21
156 3AM CDT Wed Aug 31 30.50N 87.00W 100 mph 115 mph Category 2 13 8 21
168 3PM CDT Wed Aug 31 32.10N 87.40W 75 mph 90 mph Category 1 6 5 11

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.

[Taog Redloh]

Every MSU fan who willingly chose to live on the MS Gulf Coast.

Went ahead and fixed that for you. If you haven't learned by now, you ain't never gonna. This isn't random like a flood in Baton Rouge or a tornado in Louisville. With hurricanes and the Coast, it's a matter of when not if.

Facts:

- Shallow water off the coast
- Hurricanes have hit there before

Choose wisely. I'm not saying don't live on the Coast. But the low lying and beach front properties are a roll of the dice. You know it going in.

[Dawgface]

I'll be watching. Might have to make a quick run to my condo in Orange Beach to bring my patio furniture in. I have a relative who has a key and can do it, but he is on the west coast for a couple of weeks. Hopefully it heads up the east coast or fizzles.

[RougeDawg]

Went ahead and fixed that for you. If you haven't learned by now, you ain't never gonna. This isn't random like a flood in Baton Rouge or a tornado in Louisville. With hurricanes and the Coast, it's a matter of when not if.

Facts:

- Shallow water off the coast
- Hurricanes have hit there before

Choose wisely. I'm not saying don't live on the Coast. But the low lying and beach front properties are a roll of the dice. You know it going in.

Hopefully you are joking. If not you are the prime example and utmost epitome of moron.

ETA do you also blame the people who live in prime tornado zones for their home destruction from tornados. Your post scream great ignorance or raging jealously.

[RougeDawg]

Water temps are nowhere near where they were in 2005. Plus Katrina was much more developed at this point in the track. This thing is bouncing around so much it could hit the Yucatan for all we know. The weather channel has been chompin at the bit all year to have a storm they could scare the mainland with. They don't give a shit about scaring the public, they only care about generating clicks, channel views and money. The extent to which they've started naming thunder clouds should tell you all you need to know about them.

[HancockCountyDog]

Went ahead and fixed that for you. If you haven't learned by now, you ain't never gonna. This isn't random like a flood in Baton Rouge or a tornado in Louisville. With hurricanes and the Coast, it's a matter of when not if.

Facts:

- Shallow water off the coast
- Hurricanes have hit there before

Choose wisely. I'm not saying don't live on the Coast. But the low lying and beach front properties are a roll of the dice. You know it going in.

Yeah, my family lived north of I-10 and lost pretty much everything in Katrina. Definitely should have expected a 30 foot storm surge.

[Statecoachingblows**]

I'll be watching. Might have to make a quick run to my condo in Orange Beach to bring my patio furniture in. I have a relative who has a key and can do it, but he is on the west coast for a couple of weeks. Hopefully it heads up the east coast or fizzles.

Is it nice patio furniture? I'll run over and grab it for ya***

[Dawgface]

Is it nice patio furniture? I'll run over and grab it for ya***

It is. If I leave it out.....you can probably find it up in Foley after the storm.

[I seen it dawg]

I knew it was a matter of time before a few folks started freaking out. Let's see if it gets to Florida before we start talking about the Gulf, you know? These things change directions quickly and often.

Why don't you take this one off big guy