Gulf Coast better dig in........

[basedog]

Looks like this storm could be strong. As of a few hours ago it looks like Ms/Ala.

Just saying, I do storm restoration logistics work for power companies.

[TheRef]

Looks like this storm could be strong. As of a few hours ago it looks like Ms/Ala.

Just saying, I do storm restoration logistics work for power companies.

The only thing that would stop this storm would be if enough of it hits Hispanola. The models still have a bit of variability on it, but if it survives skirting through the Carribean then the Gulf has an insane amount of energy that would strengthen this storm to something substantial. It could sit in the Gulf and just farm energy, or it could go right through and be a wrecking ball for the coast. All in all, the NHC is right for keeping everything tempered at the moment. But Invest 99L is definitely something to keep a very close eye on if you're on the coast. Make sure you have your supplies ready and everything in order in case this thing gets rolling.

[basedog]

The only thing that would stop this storm would be if enough of it hits Hispanola. The models still have a bit of variability on it, but if it survives skirting through the Carribean then the Gulf has an insane amount of energy that would strengthen this storm to something substantial. It could sit in the Gulf and just farm energy, or it could go right through and be a wrecking ball for the coast. All in all, the NHC is right for keeping everything tempered at the moment. But Invest 99L is definitely something to keep a very close eye on if you're on the coast. Make sure you have your supplies ready and everything in order in case this thing gets rolling.

European Model which seems to be the most accurate had it as a possible or could be 4, most models are saying 2
Tuesday or Wedensday.

[I seen it dawg]

So going to Perdido key/orange beach next wed/thur not the best of ideas?

[TheRef]

European Model which seems to be the most accurate had it as a possible or could be 4, most models are saying 2
Tuesday or Wedensday.

Models are getting better on tracks, but they're still horrible on intensity. We'll just have to wait for this thing to get together, it's still a little too disorganized for me.

[TheRef]

So going to Perdido key/orange beach next wed/thur not the best of ideas?

Yeah probably not. I'd wait to see what happens with 99L before going down there.

[I seen it dawg]

Yeah probably not. I'd wait to see what happens with 99L before going down there.

So you think by about Monday we will have a pretty good idea?

[DeviousDawg]

Looks like this storm could be strong. As of a few hours ago it looks like Ms/Ala.

Just saying, I do storm restoration logistics work for power companies.

Most of the models have it veering up the East Coast of Florida right now, however, a percentage of the models have it crossing over South Florida and into the Gulf.

If it does cross over Florida, it would dodge the mountains of Hispaniola and enter the 90+ degree waters of the Gulf on August 28th. I don't want to say it, but looking at some of the models, I can't help but think of Hurricane Katrina. Let's pray it veers north and stays out of the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, look out because it will feed off the warm waters of the Gulf like a starved dog. The Gulf has been waiting to spin out a monster for a while now. It doesn't help that the waters surrounding the Bahamas are abnormally warm right now either.

Definitely something that Coast people should be keeping an eye on sooner rather than later. Good lord I can't imagine if it made landfall in South Louisiana.

[TheRef]

So you think by about Monday we will have a pretty good idea?

Oh we'll know something probably by Saturday or so.

[starkvegasdawg]

The morning run of the Euro starting to come in. Latest GFS still has it going up the East Coast, the GGEM has it hitting around Destin as a weak Cat 1 or strong tropical storm. CFS has not started updating yet. From what I saw of the spaghetti plots this morning I would think the central Gulf region needs to start looking at things. As Ref said, this is still a ways out and there is a ton of uncertainty which is born out by the models being all over the place. But I will say this...I've started scouting staging locations on the MS and AL gulf coast to watch this come in if it looks to be more than a pop up thunderstorm.

[Jack Lambert]

To those Mother ****ers it's just land mass between LA and LA. No body even knows that Mississippi got flooded a week ago. **** those media bastards.

[Beaver]

Biggest issue right now is all models are struggling initializing the center of circulation within the wave. That's part of why both the GFS and Euro ensembles are so spread.

[TheRef]

Latest info from the National Hurricane Center

[Political Hack]

If this hits the central gulf during the middle of a flood recovery it'll be chaos.

[TheRef]

If this hits the central gulf during the middle of a flood recovery it'll be chaos.

For sure. This would make things about 25 times worse and slow recovery from a crawl to a standstill.

[DeviousDawg]

If this hits the central gulf during the middle of a flood recovery it'll be chaos.

Yep, even if it was just a tropical storm... the Central Gulf just couldn't handle the amount of rain any tropical system would bring right now.

[Taog Redloh]

I knew it was a matter of time before a few folks started freaking out. Let's see if it gets to Florida before we start talking about the Gulf, you know? These things change directions quickly and often.

[TheRef]

I knew it was a matter of time before a few folks started freaking out. Let's see if it gets to Florida before we start talking about the Gulf, you know? These things change directions quickly and often.

We're not freaking out, we're simply discussing possibilities. We're not telling people to evacuate right now and prepare for a Category 5 hurricane. But it's something to watch, and think about what could happen.

[starkvegasdawg]

Latest Euro may be trending the storm up the west coast of FL on the current run. Two runs ago it was AL, last run it was TX/LA border, and this run is eastern FL panhandle as as Cat 1 give or take.

[TheRef]

Latest Euro may be trending the storm up the west coast of FL on the current run. Two runs ago it was AL, last run it was TX/LA border, and this run is eastern FL panhandle as as Cat 1 give or take.

With models it's better to look at trends and not a run by run basis.