Know When To Fold'em

[KB549]

Long. Sorry. Been thinking about this for a while. I've said before that this is the ultimate high stakes poker game between UNM and the NCAA.

Assumption: The NCAA wasn't previously aware of the Tunsil/John Miller texts (not in NOA).

We know Tunsil's loaner cars and interest free loan is n the NOA. UNM admitted that and I believe them. This is the "nothing new" spin form Jan/Feb talking points. When the NCAA investigated and interviewed Tunsil, you know they asked him if he received any other non-permissible benefits. Still being a student-athlete, he would have said no. The step-father may not have spilled the beans at the time. If his intentions were to sue, he needed Tunsil to play a few games to keep the draft stock high.

UNM files for the extension. This helped them, but could be the nail in the coffin. Now, in their response, if the NOA includes anything about the Tunsil family living situation or impermissible benefits, the texts have to be addressed and admitted to or somehow explained away. They have to be wondering what other texts the hacker may have access to that could be worse than what has already been put out. So the ultimate question for them is do they admit and own up to paying him and his mom's utility bills OR roll the dice and hope nothing else comes out. If something else does come out that wasn't disclosed in their reply, the NCAA will hit their whole staff with show causes. Step dad is very likely a willing cooperator now (unless he has been "re-bought"). But failure to cooperate is admission of guilt.

If the NOA doesn't address this, they have to self report it and it brings a 2nd investigation onto campus (or 3rd, if you want to call it that). Again, this is high stakes poker. Admit to it and you have coaches/AD Dept PAYING or organizing payments to a player!!!! Deny it and if it gets proven with the hacker turning over the phone or through some other method, the NCAA will be looking to shut down your program.

Now you can change that assumption made in the beginning that the NCAA knew about the texts and they were in the NOA (highly unlikely because the coaches would have already been fired). UNM is still in the same boat, the Titanic. And they're bailing water with tablespoons.

This point has likely been made before, but is worth repeating. The UNM Administration probably can't decide who it wants to piss off. The football fans or the NCAA. Do they clean house and try to at least put on a show for the NCAA that they are not gong to have a shady program? Or double down on Freeze/Bdork even though it may backfire.

This is like a soap opera. For you Bear lurkers, my bet is 9 over 3. You will get to sign 9 over 3 years if your lucky. Not the other way around.

[Reason2succeed]

The fans will be pissed. Not just because Bjork and Freeze got their program hammered by the NCAA but also because they were lied to the entire time by a snake oil salesman masquerading as a man of God. They're screwed. Great analysis.

[THE Bruce Dickinson]

The part that some people forget is that this is not only a football investigation. It spans across 2 other sports under the same athletic department. When you couple that fact with the authorized payments from coaches to football players with the knowledge of an assistant AD, as well as the speculated academic fraud, I just don't see any way that they don't get hit with Lack of Institutional Control. They are the poster child for non compliance, and at this point it just depends on how hard the NCAA wants to come down on them. Personally, I think the NCAA has no choice but to bury them. If they go easy on them, they leave the door open for the NCAA to become irrelevant, and that would mean a HUGE loss of money for the organization. They won't let that happen.

Ole Miss better enjoy this last winning season. I have a feeling they won't have another for a while after 2016.

[Mjoelner34]

The step-father may not have spilled the beans at the time.

I don't know what all he told them but he has already stated that he didn't know about the text messages that came out on draft night or he would have mentioned that too.

[Political Hack]

I think you can safely assume that your assumption is correct.

[Reason2succeed]

The part that some people forget is that this is not only a football investigation. It spans across 2 other sports under the same athletic department. When you couple that fact with the authorized payments from coaches to football players with the knowledge of an assistant AD, as well as the speculated academic fraud, I just don't see any way that they don't get hit with Lack of Institutional Control. They are the poster child for non compliance, and at this point it just depends on how hard the NCAA wants to come down on them. Personally, I think the NCAA has no choice but to bury them. If they go easy on them, they leave the door open for the NCAA to become irrelevant, and that would mean a HUGE loss of money for the organization. They won't let that happen.

Ole Miss better enjoy this last winning season. I have a feeling they won't have another for a while after 2016.

Bingo! One thing you may have missed though. In addition to all of this OM has been caught lying during this investigation. Any lenience that they could have received for willingness to comply ought to be out of the window. At this point I wouldn't even accept self-imposed penalties if I were an NCAA investigator. Their entire allegation should be classified as aggravated cases and draw the maximum sanctions.

[TrapGame]

They've already pissed off the NCAA. It doesn't matter if the fans get pissed now. They were, imo, going to get maybe a two year probation with serious recruiting sanctions but still able to weather the storm. Now, they're looking at sanctions one step under the death penalty. The NCAA is showing no mercy because they have to save face on this one.

[LockeDawg]

They've already pissed off the NCAA. It doesn't matter if the fans get pissed now. They were, imo, going to get maybe a two year probation with serious recruiting sanctions but still able to weather the storm. Now, they're looking at sanctions one step under the death penalty. The NCAA is showing no mercy because they have to save face on this one.

At a minimum they should get tagged with a Failure to Monitor from the NCAA. When the university not only fails to monitor their highest profile student-athletes but their own Asst Athletic Director then the issues are widespread lack of institutional control.

[TrapGame]

At a minimum they should get tagged with a Failure to Monitor from the NCAA. When the university not only fails to monitor their highest profile student-athletes but their own Asst Athletic Director then the issues are widespread lack of institutional control.

Oh yeah, after the asst. AD greasing Tunsil fiasco anything short of LOIC is a joke. And, heck with what...3 or 4 sports under the NCAA microscope?...an LOIC should be expected at this point.

[Liverpooldawg]

Lack of institutional control? I may be seeing things but to me it looks more like institutional control of organized cheating. We are talking about an assistant coach and an assistant AD are we not?

[AlSwearengen]

Being from MS, we all know who runs things at olemiss and how they are run. I don't know how olemiss fans can logically get mad at anyone for whatever they get from the ncaa.

Recruit-a-palooza is a good example. I applaud their fans for showing up and putting on a good show. But, even the ones that just show up and don't hand out goodies know what is going on.

[lastmajordog]

The fans will be pissed. Not just because Bjork and Freeze got their program hammered by the NCAA but also because they were lied to the entire time by a snake oil salesman masquerading as a man of God. They're screwed. Great analysis.

To admit the university had made a mistake or purposefully done something wrong is admitting the unfathomable, that UNM is no better than anyone else....NOT HAPPENING.

[billbulldogs]

First of all I am no damn troll.

I love State and bleed maroon and white

I made that thread earlier because I am sick and tired of Ole Miss still getting high level recruits even while they are under this much crap.

All you people respond with when somebody has the guts to ask this question is (oh they cheating) or (hey your a troll)

Well thats bull shit and a cop out.

And now they got another 4 star and we still singing the same damn tune

Somebody please give me one damn logical answer to why they are still getting who and what they want.

Because it makes no damn sense at all. Yall can hate me, but im still gonna ask it.

HOW ARE THEY STILL RECRUITING LIKE THIS WHEN THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN TROUBLE!?

PS: sorry if i pissed yall off with that thread, it wasnt my intentions.

[TrapGame]

First of all I am no damn troll.

I love State and bleed maroon and white

I made that thread earlier because I am sick and tired of Ole Miss still getting high level recruits even while they are under this much crap.

All you people respond with when somebody has the guts to ask this question is (oh they cheating) or (hey your a troll)

Well thats bull shit and a cop out.

And now they got another 4 star and we still singing the same damn tune

Somebody please give me one damn logical answer to why they are still getting who and what they want.

Because it makes no damn sense at all. Yall can hate me, but im still gonna ask it.

HOW ARE THEY STILL RECRUITING LIKE THIS WHEN THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN TROUBLE!?

PS: sorry if i pissed yall off with that thread, it wasnt my intentions.

They don't give a damn anymore.

and...

If they were to stop hauling in 4*/ 5* players all of a sudden and go to bringing in nothing but 2*/3* then we'd know all that big time recruiting was a lie.

[Jack Lambert]

First of all I am no damn troll.

I love State and bleed maroon and white

I made that thread earlier because I am sick and tired of Ole Miss still getting high level recruits even while they are under this much crap.

All you people respond with when somebody has the guts to ask this question is (oh they cheating) or (hey your a troll)

Well thats bull shit and a cop out.

And now they got another 4 star and we still singing the same damn tune

Somebody please give me one damn logical answer to why they are still getting who and what they want.

Because it makes no damn sense at all. Yall can hate me, but im still gonna ask it.

HOW ARE THEY STILL RECRUITING LIKE THIS WHEN THEY ARE SUPPOSED TO BE IN TROUBLE!?

PS: sorry if i pissed yall off with that thread, it wasnt my intentions.

Not like they have a ass kicking class going right now. Are they even top 50?

[billbulldogs]

They don't give a damn anymore.

and...

If they were to stop hauling in 4*/ 5* players all of a sudden and go to bringing in nothing but 2*/3* then we'd know all that big time recruiting was a lie.

Okay but then what does this say about the kids? Wouldn't they know damn well what they are getting themselves into? I mean they could literally go anywhere in the country 10x better then Ole Piss.Yet they still pickin them. Are they that naive to where they still gonna go there despite the shit show that is coming there? OR do they know something we dont and perhaps Ole Piss may be getting away with it after all? .... this has to make you ponder.....and it makes me frustrated

[billbulldogs]

Not like they have a ass kicking class going right now. Are they even top 50?

Well Coatney was a big get for them that is eligible for 2016 and this kid they just got is a 4 star for 2017....and they both committed after this Tunsil shit storm....ideally when players would usually stay as far as possible away from a program that should be burning in flames

[I_Spy]

Use this as a guide... Real preaching

The right choice moves you forward and you continue forward or move...
The wrong choices repeats or stays stuck or same old same old

So this OM thing is a rudimentary type of read. This story.

...and as always, Hail State

[mic]

Well Coatney was a big get for them that is eligible for 2016 and this kid they just got is a 4 star for 2017....and they both committed after this Tunsil shit storm....ideally when players would usually stay as far as possible away from a program that should be burning in flames

One don't bank on Coatney being able to contribute much this year if any... And it's not because of the depth chart there
Two the kid they just got a commit from , I give him less than 10% chance of sticking...

[I_Spy]

So Just for the sake of protecting wisdom and valuable information, life theories work, they should oust Freeze, ban OM for a good bit and force them into finally changing their ways.

To lead is to be the example. Of leadership