Runs Created (sabermetrics) Update

[sleepy dawg]

It's been about 2 weeks since the last update. Here's a link to the first post for comparisons sake: http://www.elitedawgs.com/showthread...st-Of-The-Year
Based on my opinion, darker green = great, lighter green = good

Things to note:
Kruger has fallen back down to earth a bit. He is definitely still great, but not off the charts great.
Rooker is one of the most improved over the last couple of weeks.
Nathaniel Lowe has too many appearances.
Jake Mangum needs more opportunities. He is by far the best offensive player not getting a ton of playing time. Cole Gordon is another who has performed quite well in minimum appearances.

Player Name	RC	RC/4	BABIP	OPS	OBP	Slug	AVG	R	RBI	HR	TB	H	HBP+BB	SB	CS	3B	2B	AB	K	Sac	GDP
Jacob Robson	22.83	0.86	0.44	0.984	0.49	0.494	0.361	24	13	1	41	30	21	10	1	2	4	83	16	2	1
Jack Kruger	22.38	0.93	0.44	1.11	0.49	0.62	0.38	20	22	3	49	30	17	1	1	0	10	79	15	0	0
Brent Rooker	17.47	0.84	0.45	1.009	0.446	0.563	0.366	13	22	2	40	26	11	2	0	1	6	71	17	1	1
Gavin Collins	14.17	0.7	0.28	0.937	0.407	0.53	0.273	15	14	4	35	18	15	0	0	0	5	66	12	0	1
Reid Humphreys	12.96	0.75	0.4	0.981	0.42	0.561	0.333	13	14	1	32	19	10	0	1	1	8	57	13	2	0
Ryan Gridley	12.84	0.55	0.32	0.748	0.37	0.378	0.305	13	12	1	31	25	9	1	0	0	3	82	6	3	1
Cody Brown	9.64	0.8	0.38	1.002	0.438	0.564	0.308	11	7	1	22	12	9	2	0	2	3	39	9	0	1
Nathaniel Lowe	9.53	0.4	0.27	0.686	0.337	0.349	0.253	10	16	1	29	21	11	0	0	0	5	83	9	1	4
Jake Mangum	7.8	0.92	0.46	1.046	0.529	0.517	0.448	6	7	0	15	13	5	0	0	0	2	29	1	0	1
Luke Alexander	6.89	0.4	0.27	0.643	0.349	0.294	0.216	9	6	1	15	11	11	2	0	0	1	51	14	7	1
Hunter Stovall	6.72	0.58	0.34	0.745	0.386	0.359	0.308	7	8	0	14	12	5	3	0	0	2	39	4	2	0
Elih Marrero	5.26	0.33	0.25	0.562	0.286	0.276	0.224	4	5	0	16	13	5	2	0	0	3	58	6	1	0
Cole Gordon	2.37	0.63	0.5	0.862	0.4	0.462	0.308	2	1	0	6	4	2	0	0	0	2	13	5	0	0
John Holland	1.94	0.43	0.33	0.745	0.333	0.412	0.294	6	3	0	7	5	1	0	1	0	2	17	2	0	0

[Coach34]

excellent...appreciate you doing this for the Board. Its why we remain the #1 State message board

[BeardoMSU]

It's good you gave me a color breakdown for great/good/bad, lol.

Not that I hate numbers, but I have no idea what this chart means. Does GDP stand for gross domestic product?**

[Ralph]

Thanks for posting. Couple things that surprised me... Cody's slugging % and Robson's K's. Also to your point, Cole Gordon has too few at bats. I'd like to see Cole playing 1b more in midweek games.

[maroonmania]

So, this chart seems to tell me that unless we are facing an elite defensive catcher then we should be doing a lot more straight stealing instead of all of these sacrifice bunts. We are stealing bases at the clip of 23/27 (85%). I doubt we even successfully sacrifice at that rate PLUS when we sacrifice we give up an out whereas when you straight steal you get the extra base AND save the out.

[missouridawg]

Great stuff. Thanks again. Edited bc I'm stoopid.

[Dawg62]

Robson's K% is only 15%.. Same as last year, not an issue. He just has a ton of PA's.

GDP = Grounded into Double-Play

Mizzou - AB's near the right hand side of the chart

[missouridawg]

Robson's K% is only 15%.. Same as last year, not an issue. He just has a ton of PA's.

GDP = Grounded into Double-Play

Mizzou - AB's near the right hand side of the chart

Overlooked it the first time through. Thanks.

[Todd4State]

So, this chart seems to tell me that unless we are facing an elite defensive catcher then we should be doing a lot more straight stealing instead of all of these sacrifice bunts. We are stealing bases at the clip of 23/27 (85%). I doubt we even successfully sacrifice at that rate PLUS when we sacrifice we give up an out whereas when you straight steal you get the extra base AND save the out.

Totally agree about stealing bases more. Robson should have no less than 30 by the end of the year. I want to see Cody, Mangum, and Gridley trying to steal much more than they are, granted Mangum hasn't had a ton of playing time. Stealing bases to me is an ingredient to balance- just like having power.

Also- there is the saying that if you are stealing bases successfully more than 65-70% of the time you are helping to create runs and right now we are WAY above that clip.

[sleepy dawg]

It's good you gave me a color breakdown for great/good/bad, lol.

Not that I hate numbers, but I have no idea what this chart means. Does GDP stand for gross domestic product?**

I added the colors just for you because I knew you would not understand*

[maroonmania]

Totally agree about stealing bases more. Robson should have no less than 30 by the end of the year. I want to see Cody, Mangum, and Gridley trying to steal much more than they are, granted Mangum hasn't had a ton of playing time. Stealing bases to me is an ingredient to balance- just like having power.

Also- there is the saying that if you are stealing bases successfully more than 65-70% of the time you are helping to create runs and right now we are WAY above that clip.

Exactly, and even if you say Robson skews the numbers a bit, if you take him out we are still 13/16 (81%). There again, I would be willing to be that our sac bunt success rate is no higher than even 81% and that's with giving away the out. I've seen WAY too many times on these bunt attempts where the lead runner is throw out, the bunt is popped up, the batter can't get the bunt down at all, etc. So there is nothing automatic about sacrificing a runner over.

[Homedawg]

So, this chart seems to tell me that unless we are facing an elite defensive catcher then we should be doing a lot more straight stealing instead of all of these sacrifice bunts. We are stealing bases at the clip of 23/27 (85%). I doubt we even successfully sacrifice at that rate PLUS when we sacrifice we give up an out whereas when you straight steal you get the extra base AND save the out.

The chart doesn't tell it all. What is the pitcher's home to first time, when we stole or when we didn't attempt? The steal is as much on the pitcher or more than the catcher. So while we e been successful some chart doesn't accurately predict that we should steal more. I'm not anti steal and pro bunt, just saying there are many factors involved outside of who we have on the bases.

[mikehoncho]

Quick question on coloring. If a player's BABIP is green does that mean his BABIP is higher than average? If so, isn't this a negative? If a players BABIP is above average we can predict it to fall, along with most other stats that BABIP correlates with. Unless a high BABIP is the normal for a certain player. So in this case we could expect someone like Marrerro to hit better as the season progresses while some of the players "in the green" might "cool off".

[Dawg62]

Quick question on coloring. If a player's BABIP is green does that mean his BABIP is higher than average? If so, isn't this a negative? If a players BABIP is above average we can predict it to fall, along with most other stats that BABIP correlates with. Unless a high BABIP is the normal for a certain player. So in this case we could expect someone like Marrerro to hit better as the season progresses while some of the players "in the green" might "cool off".

It's all based on their own personal BABIP, there is no standard baseline for all. Speed and groundball/line drive hitters carry a higher one than others. It wouldn't surprise me to see Robson carry a .400 BABIP for the season.

[War Machine Dawg]

Robbie is putting up All-American numbers. I realise it's nitpicking since his OBP is hovering around .500, but imagine what those numbers might look like if his K rate dropped a little. Just insane what he does at the top of the order for us.