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Thread: Random thoughts, Tough Love (and incredibly long) Edition

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    Random thoughts, Tough Love (and incredibly long) Edition

    1. Mullen has job security. I can't believe this needs to be said, but holy shit people are going crazy. I don't even know what to say to people that even mention firing Mullen as a realistic possibility at this point. If the rumors are true (and that's a big IF) and Mullen has been hell bent on getting out of Starkville after this year but ends up stuck there, at worst he has just eaten up some of his good will for future years and impacted negotiations surrounding his buyout this year. If he wins 6 next year and 8 the year after, he'll still be plenty safe even if he hates it in Starkville the whole time.

    2. You judge an employee based on overall performance. No doubt, Mullen has flaws. It's a real problem that we showed up unprepared and/or disinterested in three of our five toss-up games (A&M, LSU, UM) and of the two we won, one of them (Auburn) was a dumpster fire (but winning in Arkansas is a big win). It's a real problem that we have basically not shown up in three of the past four egg bowls. That said, it's not nothing to get any SEC program where you're four OOC games and UK are practically gimmes and where everybody but Bama is a toss-up or better. It's also not nothing to go basically six years straight without a slip-up against your weaker opponents. This season was only disappointing because Mullen is so good at the things he is good at, that we take those as given and only judge him on the things that he is mediocre or worse at. Looking at his overall performance, he's a very good coach.

    3. We are not likely to improve on Mullen with our next coach. This is not a 'poor ole mississippi state' sentiment. It's possible to end up at a local maximum and we are there. LSU and UGA are there also. Yes, LSU, UGA, and MSU could do better than their respective coaches this year, but hiring a coach is always a crap shoot. Miles, Mullen, and Richt are all at worst top 35 coaches. There are coaches out there that are better, but it's not a slam dunk to identify them, especially when you look at coaches that are realistically available. There's no reason for LSU, UGA, UF, or Bama to be bad, but they all will inevitably be bad at some point, and it will be because of a bad coaching hire. You don't want to jump out there unless your current coach really is unacceptable.

    For example, UGA has missed a huge window these past five years. They have had an incredibly easy east and not capitalized because Richt has been on the downslope of his career. But keeping him up until this point (and possibly beyond) still has been the right call. The program has steadily been good and they have continued to make money and remain relevant. You don't pull the plug on that just because there is potentially a better hire out there. The East has been so easy largely because Florida and Tennessee have made bad hires, and UGA could have done just as poorly. Sometimes good enough is good enough. You don't build an elite program by tearing it apart every time you spend a few years where you are good but not elite.

    4. 99% chance we are going to have a fatal flaw every year. All but two or three teams at most each year have a fatal flaw that will prevent them from winning a championship. Up until last year, Mullen had continually addressed existing weaknesses without any new ones appearing. For all people bash his recruiting, our talent level had consistently trended up and the only place we ever really regressed was on OL (where Crooms left a huge void to fill) and a pass rush DE. Last year, Safety really hurt us. This year, it was safety and RB, and CB depth. Next year it will be CB. It's incredibly hard to evaluate and recruit well enough to have a championship caliber team. It's unlikely that Dan or another coach will do it at MSU (just like it was always unlikely that Beamer would do it at Va Tech). The fact that we are going to be flawed doesn't reflect that poorly on Mullen.

    The only question is why our O-Line has yet to be a strength with Mullen. O-Line has been a fatal flaw every year since '09. Is that basically just a reflection of the talent available in MSU strongholds? Or is it a glaring weakness in coaching and/or recruiting? Take out last year, and it's obvious that something has to change. While last year wasn't a championship caliber OL, it was solid enough to suggest Hevesy's coaching is not a deal breaker and that it may just be a recruiting issue.

    5. Mullen has mellowed. 2009 Mullen would have been driven crazy by the way we finished last year and there's no way we would have come out with a poor game plan in the egg bowl after last year's shit show. 2015 Mullen has a fat bank account, has a healthy and wonderful family, and is not defined by W's and L's on the football field. (Really, I think Mullen had already mellowed before last year, it's just he caught lightning in a bottle with Dak and a slightly down LSU and Auburn.) No doubt, it's not good for MSU football that Mullen has mellowed. (And if Mullen wanted out, that would be why he would go to a place like Maryland.) But even mellowed, Mullen has built the program up to a point that he will be successful enough to stay for the foreseeable future. I would bet that just with what he has in the pipeline and his current intensity will get us six wins next year and an average of 8 over the next two before cracks really begin to show. And that's ok. There is no expressway to success. We made a very good hire and like most very good hires in college football, it's going to result in some winning football without a championship, and his tenure will end with the program lower than it's peak but in a better position than when he got here.

    6. Mullen can coach QB's. This is sort of a subset of numbers 2 and 5, but just keeping a good QB year in and year out will allow you to win games each year if you're not totally 17ing up everything else. We won 8 games this year with a pretty shitty OL just because our QB was evaluated and coached well. We've got two more in the pipeline that are actually more promising as RS freshmen than Dak was (obviously it's not likely they will turn out as well, but they should still be good). And recruiting and developing a QB does not require sell your first born intensity. QB's are going to want to come play for Mullen after seeing Russell, Dak, and Fitz/Staley and coaching them up doesn't require 60 hours of film session each week.

    7. Some people aren't made to be college football fans. The egg bowl has left a sour taste in my mouth, but if this season wasn't more enjoyable than not and if you can't enjoy going to a bowl game this year, being a college football fan is not for you (unless you give a lot of money to MSU, in which case, continue to be miserable and give lots of money in the hopes it gets better).

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    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
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    You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Johnson85 again.

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    Nice work. On the oline we seemed to blow a lot of assignments this year on stunt and blitz pickup. Not sure who that falls on but was a big issue.

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    Senior Member QuadrupleOption's Avatar
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    Thank you.

    I HATE losing to those bastards, but I will never be pissed about an 8+ win season at MSU until we start winning SEC championships regularly. You have to crawl before you can walk, and you have to walk before you can run. Our program is in the walking stage right now.

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    Senior Member Tbonewannabe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Irondawg View Post
    Nice work. On the oline we seemed to blow a lot of assignments this year on stunt and blitz pickup. Not sure who that falls on but was a big issue.
    Watched the game with a former Oline starter and he was amazed how badly we blocked on something simple as a twist. UM would twist and 1 lineman would simply not block someone that play as Dak ran for his life or got drove into the ground. I don't see how people say Hev is a good coach when if the Dline does anything special our line just completely falls apart. Last year was the same thing.

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    Senior Member BulldogBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg View Post
    You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Johnson85 again.
    Same here
    The Liberation will not be televised--- when it arrives like lightning in the skies!

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    Senior Member BoomBoom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe View Post
    Watched the game with a former Oline starter and he was amazed how badly we blocked on something simple as a twist. UM would twist and 1 lineman would simply not block someone that play as Dak ran for his life or got drove into the ground. I don't see how people say Hev is a good coach when if the Dline does anything special our line just completely falls apart. Last year was the same thing.
    ^usually Desper

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    Senior Member BoomBoom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    1. Mullen has job security. I can't believe this needs to be said, but holy shit people are going crazy. I don't even know what to say to people that even mention firing Mullen as a realistic possibility at this point. If the rumors are true (and that's a big IF) and Mullen has been hell bent on getting out of Starkville after this year but ends up stuck there, at worst he has just eaten up some of his good will for future years and impacted negotiations surrounding his buyout this year. If he wins 6 next year and 8 the year after, he'll still be plenty safe even if he hates it in Starkville the whole time.

    2. You judge an employee based on overall performance. No doubt, Mullen has flaws. It's a real problem that we showed up unprepared and/or disinterested in three of our five toss-up games (A&M, LSU, UM) and of the two we won, one of them (Auburn) was a dumpster fire (but winning in Arkansas is a big win). It's a real problem that we have basically not shown up in three of the past four egg bowls. That said, it's not nothing to get any SEC program where you're four OOC games and UK are practically gimmes and where everybody but Bama is a toss-up or better. It's also not nothing to go basically six years straight without a slip-up against your weaker opponents. This season was only disappointing because Mullen is so good at the things he is good at, that we take those as given and only judge him on the things that he is mediocre or worse at. Looking at his overall performance, he's a very good coach.

    3. We are not likely to improve on Mullen with our next coach. This is not a 'poor ole mississippi state' sentiment. It's possible to end up at a local maximum and we are there. LSU and UGA are there also. Yes, LSU, UGA, and MSU could do better than their respective coaches this year, but hiring a coach is always a crap shoot. Miles, Mullen, and Richt are all at worst top 35 coaches. There are coaches out there that are better, but it's not a slam dunk to identify them, especially when you look at coaches that are realistically available. There's no reason for LSU, UGA, UF, or Bama to be bad, but they all will inevitably be bad at some point, and it will be because of a bad coaching hire. You don't want to jump out there unless your current coach really is unacceptable.

    For example, UGA has missed a huge window these past five years. They have had an incredibly easy east and not capitalized because Richt has been on the downslope of his career. But keeping him up until this point (and possibly beyond) still has been the right call. The program has steadily been good and they have continued to make money and remain relevant. You don't pull the plug on that just because there is potentially a better hire out there. The East has been so easy largely because Florida and Tennessee have made bad hires, and UGA could have done just as poorly. Sometimes good enough is good enough. You don't build an elite program by tearing it apart every time you spend a few years where you are good but not elite.

    4. 99% chance we are going to have a fatal flaw every year. All but two or three teams at most each year have a fatal flaw that will prevent them from winning a championship. Up until last year, Mullen had continually addressed existing weaknesses without any new ones appearing. For all people bash his recruiting, our talent level had consistently trended up and the only place we ever really regressed was on OL (where Crooms left a huge void to fill) and a pass rush DE. Last year, Safety really hurt us. This year, it was safety and RB, and CB depth. Next year it will be CB. It's incredibly hard to evaluate and recruit well enough to have a championship caliber team. It's unlikely that Dan or another coach will do it at MSU (just like it was always unlikely that Beamer would do it at Va Tech). The fact that we are going to be flawed doesn't reflect that poorly on Mullen.

    The only question is why our O-Line has yet to be a strength with Mullen. O-Line has been a fatal flaw every year since '09. Is that basically just a reflection of the talent available in MSU strongholds? Or is it a glaring weakness in coaching and/or recruiting? Take out last year, and it's obvious that something has to change. While last year wasn't a championship caliber OL, it was solid enough to suggest Hevesy's coaching is not a deal breaker and that it may just be a recruiting issue.

    5. Mullen has mellowed. 2009 Mullen would have been driven crazy by the way we finished last year and there's no way we would have come out with a poor game plan in the egg bowl after last year's shit show. 2015 Mullen has a fat bank account, has a healthy and wonderful family, and is not defined by W's and L's on the football field. (Really, I think Mullen had already mellowed before last year, it's just he caught lightning in a bottle with Dak and a slightly down LSU and Auburn.) No doubt, it's not good for MSU football that Mullen has mellowed. (And if Mullen wanted out, that would be why he would go to a place like Maryland.) But even mellowed, Mullen has built the program up to a point that he will be successful enough to stay for the foreseeable future. I would bet that just with what he has in the pipeline and his current intensity will get us six wins next year and an average of 8 over the next two before cracks really begin to show. And that's ok. There is no expressway to success. We made a very good hire and like most very good hires in college football, it's going to result in some winning football without a championship, and his tenure will end with the program lower than it's peak but in a better position than when he got here.

    6. Mullen can coach QB's. This is sort of a subset of numbers 2 and 5, but just keeping a good QB year in and year out will allow you to win games each year if you're not totally 17ing up everything else. We won 8 games this year with a pretty shitty OL just because our QB was evaluated and coached well. We've got two more in the pipeline that are actually more promising as RS freshmen than Dak was (obviously it's not likely they will turn out as well, but they should still be good). And recruiting and developing a QB does not require sell your first born intensity. QB's are going to want to come play for Mullen after seeing Russell, Dak, and Fitz/Staley and coaching them up doesn't require 60 hours of film session each week.

    7. Some people aren't made to be college football fans. The egg bowl has left a sour taste in my mouth, but if this season wasn't more enjoyable than not and if you can't enjoy going to a bowl game this year, being a college football fan is not for you (unless you give a lot of money to MSU, in which case, continue to be miserable and give lots of money in the hopes it gets better).
    Shocker, Boom disagrees with Johnson85.

    To me, Mullen has reached his ceiling. He has a system that wins with a certain level of talent relative to the opposition, that he is not able to adjust to beat teams above that level of relative talent. That means we can beat OOC cupcakes, and KY and equivalent, but are usually going to lose to teams of SEC West caliber, as they coach circles around us even when talent is equal. One huge exception to this was the first half of last year, when no one had seen the Dak offense yet. Remember, LSU used ZERO LB sets against us in short yardage situations. Can you imagine anyone doing that now? The SEC adjusted within 3 games. Mullen has not in a season and a half. Throw out that half season, and how does Mullen's.record look? To me, it looks insufficient.
    Last edited by BoomBoom; 11-30-2015 at 06:10 PM.

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    Outstanding post. I disagree with some of it, but it was very well reasoned. The main thing I disagree with it that it's ok for Mullen to coast to 21 or 22 wins over the next few years and call that good enough. The "STRAIN" he talked about as recently as 2 months ago is simply not there and it should be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BoomBoom View Post
    Shocker, Boom disagrees with Johnson85.

    To me, Mullen has reached his ceiling. He has a system that wins with a certain level of talent relative to the opposition, that he is not able to adjust to beat teams above that level of relative talent. That means we can beat OOC cupcakes, and KY and equivalent, but are usually going to lose to teams of SEC West caliber, as they coach circles around us even when talent is equal. One huge exception to this was the first half of last year, when no one had seen the Dak offense yet. Remember, LSU used ZERO LB sets against us in short yardage situations. Can you imagine anyone doing that now? The SEC adjusted within 3 games. Mullen has not in a season and a half. Throw out that half season, and how does Mullen's.record look? To me, it looks insufficient.
    I don't strongly disagree with any of that. Mullen probably has hit his ceiling. It's quite possible and probably more likely than not that we won't win 10 regular season games with him again. I don't think he gets circles coached around him when the talent is equal; this year was bad, but we also had some glaring weaknesses that limited his options. As far as last year, people had seen this offense at Florida, but you're right that Mullen didn't adjust when other people did. The charitable view of that is that he danced with the one that brought him.

    I think the only thing I strongly disagree with is whether his record (whether you throw out those three games or not) is "insufficient". Yes, it leaves a lot to be desired, and maybe you're not thrilled with it, but it's still improving the perception of our program each year. As long as he keeps us in bowl games, winning 7-8 games a year in the regular season is good enough to not fire him.

    I'm still hopeful that he regroups and makes some adjustments and we hit another peak in 2017 and 2018. Even if 2017 and 2018 turn out to be two more 8 win regular seasons, I think that is something that gives him plenty of job security, especially if next season includes a bowl game.

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    Excellent original post 85. As for the follow up, only one comment: If Mullen hit his ceiling then I'll take it. We were very much in the mix for it ALL last year. A couple of plays go different against Bama last year and we would have been playing for it. It seems that never really sunk in to some of us. We have only done better in that category in the big three sports a total of THREE times in our history and never in football.
    Last edited by Liverpooldawg; 11-30-2015 at 06:51 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe View Post
    Watched the game with a former Oline starter and he was amazed how badly we blocked on something simple as a twist. UM would twist and 1 lineman would simply not block someone that play as Dak ran for his life or got drove into the ground. I don't see how people say Hev is a good coach when if the Dline does anything special our line just completely falls apart. Last year was the same thing.
    I know a lot of people have called out Desper and not saying he was good but I noticed Clayborn have a few horrible plays and since he's responsible for calling out blocking assignments I have to question how good he is at it or how well he's been taught.

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    Senior Member Tbonewannabe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Irondawg View Post
    I know a lot of people have called out Desper and not saying he was good but I noticed Clayborn have a few horrible plays and since he's responsible for calling out blocking assignments I have to question how good he is at it or how well he's been taught.
    I can't remember who was playing RT but kimdeechee twisted inside and all he did is stand up and watch. He didn't switch to allow the guard to pick him up. It isn't just Desper, the whole line screws up regularly. We aren't able to block if the Dline does anything special.

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