Page 1 of 2 12 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 31

Thread: Stat's on MSU's Program in the West

  1. #1
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,830
    vCash
    3400

    Stat's on MSU's Program in the West

    Looking at SEC records since A&M came into the league:

    To nobody's surprise, Bama and LSU will be the cream of the crop, with Bama still outpacing LSU by a good bit:

    Bama - 27-4
    LSU - 19-11

    Then A&M, UM, and UM are grouped together:
    A&M - 16-14
    MSU - 16-14
    UM - 15-15

    Than Auburn and Ark pull up the rear:
    Auburn 13-18
    Ark - 8-22

    If MSU and LSU loses out, that means we'll finish the last four years 16-16, with A&M and UM finishing 2 and 1 game ahead of us, respectively. (assuming Vandy is a win for A&M). We'll still be ahead of Auburn and Arkansas. One of those is weighed down by an 0-8 SEC record under a previous coach. The other had his own 0-8 season, but will have moved from 0 wins, to 2 wins, to 6 wins in three seasons. But we'll basically look like the fifth best team in the West over that time frame.

    If MSU loses out and LSU wins out, we'll finish one game behind A&M and tied with UM. We'll basically be tied with UM and just barely behind A&M for the 4th best team in the west over the past 4 years.

    If we win out and LSU wins out, we'll finish a game ahead of A&M and two ahead of UM, and be the 3rd best program in the west over the past four years. If LSU loses out and we win out, then there will barely be any separation between LSU, A&M, UM and MSU over the past four years.

    It all comes pretty close enough to even over the past four years that taking east opponents into consideration could change the scenario, but it just goes to show (1) how important finishing strong is for perceptions of MSU and Mullen and (2) how the SEC West really has been Bama and then everybody else lately.


    Going back over Mullen's entire tenure, there is Bama then a sizeable gap, then Lsu, then a gap, and A&M (averaging their performance), then MSU, then a slight gap to Auburn and Arkansas, with UM pulling up the rear.

    Bama 47-8
    LSU 38-16
    A&M 29-25 (averaging their previous 3 years SEC record to get a 6 year record and adding the performance so far this year to it).
    MSU 25-29
    Auburn 23-17
    Arkansas 23-31
    UM 20-34


    Looking at this longer track record, it shows you that (1) a boom and bust cycle is actually better for your program's reputation than steady performance and/or (2) we've done a really poor job of marketing our program. I think it's more of #(1), and that highs just make a bigger positive impression than the lows hurt, but it's still a lot of #(2) also.

    Getting to 9-3 really will make a difference for Mullen looking over the long haul, because it will give two really good bowls and potentiall two 10-win seasons to go along with having the third or fourth best performance in the SEC W over the last 7 years. Surely that would move the needle on perception.

  2. #2
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    9,923
    vCash
    3200
    Thanks. Cool info

  3. #3
    Super Moderator CadaverDawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    33,668
    vCash
    3002900
    Great breakdown. Thanks. Interesting stuff

  4. #4
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2014
    Posts
    10,866
    vCash
    3100
    Good stuff

  5. #5
    Senior Member QuadrupleOption's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    876
    vCash
    3700
    Excellent breakdown. I'd like to see a comparison with MSU against the entirety of the SEC as well. I bet we'd be 6th or 7th at worst in those standings.

    Even with the disappointing loss to Bama, I feel like we're slowly improving our stock in the conference and nationally overall. Not as fast as I'd like but still improvement.

  6. #6
    Senior Member Beaver's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    634
    vCash
    3700
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    Looking at this longer track record, it shows you that (1) a boom and bust cycle is actually better for your program's reputation than steady performance and/or (2) we've done a really poor job of marketing our program. I think it's more of #(1), and that highs just make a bigger positive impression than the lows hurt, but it's still a lot of #(2) also.
    Auburn agrees...

  7. #7
    Senior Member smootness's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    15,079
    vCash
    3000
    It's pretty obvious that we're still on an overall upward trajectory over Mullen's tenure. When he started, we were good enough to beat the terrible OOC teams we played consistently, and we could also beat SEC teams like Kentucky, Vandy, and Ole Miss. But we would lose to decent OOC teams like Houston and GT and most SEC teams.

    Then we got over the hump with the decent OOC teams and started beating some decent SEC teams consistently as well, like Tennessee, Arkansas, and somewhat down Georgia and Florida teams. We still couldn't beat the best of the best in the SEC.

    Now we've gotten to a point where we can beat good SEC teams (Auburn, LSU, A&M last year, and though it doesn't count, should have beaten LSU this year as well). And while Auburn isn't good this year, we've now beaten them 3 out of the last 4. We've taken a bit of a step forward without losing the hold we have on bad and decent teams.

    Obviously the next step we have to take as a program is to start picking off the elite teams at least here and there. That's probably the hardest step to take, but we've gotten to this point. I just hate when people look only at overall record or take record against a couple cherry-picked teams and try to paint a slightly different picture. Yes, we have to start figuring out a way to beat Bama at all and a program like LSU more consistently. But we're not far away from that.

  8. #8
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    11,830
    vCash
    3400
    Quote Originally Posted by QuadrupleOption View Post
    Excellent breakdown. I'd like to see a comparison with MSU against the entirety of the SEC as well. I bet we'd be 6th or 7th at worst in those standings.

    Even with the disappointing loss to Bama, I feel like we're slowly improving our stock in the conference and nationally overall. Not as fast as I'd like but still improvement.
    Not sure the right way to do the entire SEC because of the disparity between the divisions. Realistically, we've clearly been better than UK, UT, and Vandy since Mizzou and A&M have joined the league. I'd say we've been better than Mizzou but their record would be as good or better because of their east opponents.

  9. #9
    Senior Member LC Dawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Posts
    5,741
    vCash
    4938
    Quote Originally Posted by Johnson85 View Post
    Getting to 9-3 really will make a difference for Mullen looking over the long haul, because it will give two really good bowls and potentiall two 10-win seasons to go along with having the third or fourth best performance in the SEC W over the last 7 years. Surely that would move the needle on perception.
    These last two games are huge for our program in my opinion. The 2013 Arkansas and Ole Miss games pretty much started our ascension to some heights we had never seen and I don't want the same 2015 games starting us on a downward trajectory. If we win the last two we will prove that we can sustain a little success and will have something to keep building off after we lose one of the best players in our history.

  10. #10
    Senior Member BrunswickDawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Home of Slay, GA
    Posts
    11,916
    vCash
    1746501
    To really put it in perspective - we were 11-45 in the 7 years prior to Dan. That is some shitastic football.

  11. #11
    Senior Member smootness's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    15,079
    vCash
    3000
    Next year will be a huge year for this program and for Mullen. If we can avoid taking a big step back after losing Dak and guys like Chris Jones, Redmond, Wilson, etc., then I think it will prove that we really have elevated the program to another level and that it is not dependent on one player. I'm talking about going something like 8-4 or better. Honestly, even 7-5 would show that we're capable of maintaining.

    And it would also show Mullen that he can keep things going in the right direction. I'm sure he already believes this, but it would be a great sign for his ability to keep things moving in the right direction.

    And it would also set us up to have a potentially monster 2017 season, with the QB back and last year's class all into year 3 in the program.

  12. #12
    Banned
    Join Date
    Nov 2015
    Posts
    1
    vCash
    3100
    If we are going to look at SECW teams (which was the point of your post) let's look at records against the SECW. The records aren't as kind to us...

    SEC Records since A&M came into the league (2012) - last Saturday:

    Bama - 19-4 (Auburn left this year)
    LSU - 13-9 (Bears and A&M left this year)
    A&M - 12-11 (LSU left this year)
    Miss - 11-11 (LSU and us left this year)
    MSU - 9-13 (Ark and Bears left this year)
    AU 9-14 (Bama left)
    Ark - 6-17 (Us left this year)

    Basically - your premise is correct. It's Bama and everyone else. But depending on how the last two weeks shake out - we could have a 3 way tie for second between LSU, OM and A&M. It's doubtful - but they are basically the next tier and you could arguably put us in that group because a 11-13 4 year record isn't out of the question. AU and Arkansas are pulling up the rear with a dismal 4 year average (one that includes a national championship game?)

    Now - I'm a MSU fan that has been banned from posting here before - hence my first post under this username. Ban me again - but the facts won't change. I'll remain a reader....
    I'm done with Dan and I'm done with mediocrity. Even if we win out and the Bears lose out - we've got the exact same record against SEC W opponents since A&M joined the league. That's unacceptable. Especially when you consider we are about to graduate the best QB in school history. Dan has done less with more (most exposure, best facilities, biggest budget, most football friendly Athletic Admin etc.) than any coach in MSU history.

    Overall SEC Record is important - but it's not apples to apples. It's probably fair to compare us against the Bears since we get UK and they get Vandy every year - but measuring our record against SECW opponents is a better measure for your premise.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Boya's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    153
    vCash
    3200
    Quote Originally Posted by Just the Facts View Post
    If we are going to look at SECW teams (which was the point of your post) let's look at records against the SECW. The records aren't as kind to us...


    SEC Records since A&M came into the league (2012) - last Saturday:

    Bama - 19-4 (Auburn left this year)
    LSU - 13-9 (Bears and A&M left this year)
    A&M - 12-11 (LSU left this year)
    Miss - 11-11 (LSU and us left this year)
    MSU - 9-13 (Ark and Bears left this year)
    AU 9-14 (Bama left)
    Ark - 6-17 (Us left this year)

    Basically - your premise is correct. It's Bama and everyone else. But depending on how the last two weeks shake out - we could have a 3 way tie for second between LSU, OM and A&M. It's doubtful - but they are basically the next tier and you could arguably put us in that group because a 11-13 4 year record isn't out of the question. AU and Arkansas are pulling up the rear with a dismal 4 year average (one that includes a national championship game?)

    Now - I'm a MSU fan that has been banned from posting here before - hence my first post under this username. Ban me again - but the facts won't change. I'll remain a reader....
    I'm done with Dan and I'm done with mediocrity. Even if we win out and the Bears lose out - we've got the exact same record against SEC W opponents since A&M joined the league. That's unacceptable. Especially when you consider we are about to graduate the best QB in school history. Dan has done less with more (most exposure, best facilities, biggest budget, most football friendly Athletic Admin etc.) than any coach in MSU history.

    Overall SEC Record is important - but it's not apples to apples. It's probably fair to compare us against the Bears since we get UK and they get Vandy every year - but measuring our record against SECW opponents is a better measure for your premise.
    You lack all perspective about the history of our football program...

  14. #14
    Senior Member Coach34's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2013
    Posts
    30,026
    vCash
    17200
    Just The Facts is not a State fan- this has been their BS on twitter today. But he certainly has a point
    Walk like the King or walk like you don't care who the King is

  15. #15
    Senior Member Interpolation_Dawg_EX's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    4,378
    vCash
    62623
    I understand we have made tremendous strides, but to think we should be winning the west every year is asinine. Damn I hate to be "this guy", but some of yall need perspective and get over your preseason prognostications being incorrect. If you want to bitch about something bring up the lack of pay for quality assistants, lack of creatively in crucial situations, and a reduction in the physical nature of the o-line. If anything,Mullen needs to swallow some pride to let assistant coaches do their thing. As bad as he may feel the need to control every aspect, it may be more beneficial for he and the team if found someone he could trust and let go a little.

  16. #16
    Senior Member bulldawg28's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    5,443
    vCash
    3700
    Mullen ain't that bad after all which anyone with logical thinking can see.

  17. #17
    Senior Member Interpolation_Dawg_EX's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    4,378
    vCash
    62623
    Quote Originally Posted by Just the Facts View Post
    If we are going to look at SECW teams (which was the point of your post) let's look at records against the SECW. The records aren't as kind to us...

    SEC Records since A&M came into the league (2012) - last Saturday:

    Bama - 19-4 (Auburn left this year)
    LSU - 13-9 (Bears and A&M left this year)
    A&M - 12-11 (LSU left this year)
    Miss - 11-11 (LSU and us left this year)
    MSU - 9-13 (Ark and Bears left this year)
    AU 9-14 (Bama left)
    Ark - 6-17 (Us left this year)

    Basically - your premise is correct. It's Bama and everyone else. But depending on how the last two weeks shake out - we could have a 3 way tie for second between LSU, OM and A&M. It's doubtful - but they are basically the next tier and you could arguably put us in that group because a 11-13 4 year record isn't out of the question. AU and Arkansas are pulling up the rear with a dismal 4 year average (one that includes a national championship game?)

    Now - I'm a MSU fan that has been banned from posting here before - hence my first post under this username. Ban me again - but the facts won't change. I'll remain a reader....
    I'm done with Dan and I'm done with mediocrity. Even if we win out and the Bears lose out - we've got the exact same record against SEC W opponents since A&M joined the league. That's unacceptable. Especially when you consider we are about to graduate the best QB in school history. Dan has done less with more (most exposure, best facilities, biggest budget, most football friendly Athletic Admin etc.) than any coach in MSU history.

    Overall SEC Record is important - but it's not apples to apples. It's probably fair to compare us against the Bears since we get UK and they get Vandy every year - but measuring our record against SECW opponents is a better measure for your premise.
    Just in cast you're a bear in sheep's clothing, shouldn't the bears be performing at a much higher level than MSU given the recruiting championships? I can't wait to see Elston pay for his cheap shot on Dak last year.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Dallas_Dawg's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Posts
    1,604
    vCash
    3700
    .500 in the SEC is about all we can expect year to year.

  19. #19
    Banned
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    2,694
    vCash
    3100
    Quote Originally Posted by Dallas_Dawg View Post
    .500 in the SEC is about all we can expect year to year.
    I don't think that's necessarily true. I think .500 against the West over the long term is a reasonable ceiling for our program. In the current climate, that would have us alternating between 5-3 and 6-2 on average each year. Some years, that might be good enough to win the West. We are pretty much ahead of every East team except for Florida, and we are beating our East permanent each year.

  20. #20
    Founder of Summer's Eve
    Join Date
    Jul 2013
    Posts
    8,447
    vCash
    3663
    I don't believe anyone is saying we should win the west yearly. People are saying that dan has lost all creativity and imagination with his play calling and handling of this team. What he's has done since Auburn game 2014 is take his stock car, put her in 3rd gear on cruise, while hoping all the cars in front of him wreck and he can win the race. You cannot coach football this way and expect to win the SEC. I'm sorry if some of you aren't willing to acknowledge this but this season is a prime example of Dan putting it on cruise control hoping we can win. Dan's 2009 play calling with Dak and this team and we have 1 loss, maybe. Time for everyone to face the music.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Disclaimer: Elitedawgs is a privately owned and operated forum that is managed by alumni of Mississippi State University. This website is in no way affiliated with the Mississippi State University, The Southeastern Conference (SEC) or the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA). The views and opinions expressed herein are strictly those of the post author and may not reflect the views of other members of this forum or elitedawgs.com. The interactive nature of the elitedawgs.com forums makes it impossible for elitedawgs.com to assume responsibility for any of the content posted at this site. Ideas, thoughts, suggestion, comments, opinions, advice and observations made by participants at elitedawgs.com are not endorsed by elitedawgs.com
Elitedawgs: A Mississippi State Fan Forum, Mississippi State Football, Mississippi State Basketball, Mississippi State Baseball, Mississippi State Athletics. Mississippi State message board.