Arian Foster

[dawgs]

Lacy is a beast. I'd take him over all those guys. 1200 yards this year with missing 2 games from a concussion. Ask the Packers how valuable Lacy was when Rodgers was out. Steven Jackson was a total bust this year and Fred Jackson was Spillers backup the first 6 games or so. Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy had better years than AP this year.

don't confuse a "better year" with being a better talent. AD (people, his nickname is "all day" = AD, because when he was little he could run "all day" not AP) charles and mccoy were in better systems on better teams. stick them on the 2012 vikings and tell me that they'd put up AD's numbers. they wouldn't come close. hell, put them on the 2013 vikings for 14 games and they wouldn't come close to putting up AD's numbers.

he's literally the only RB in the NFL i would pay huge money for and trade valuable assets for. and even still, he's reaching an age where you can only expect 2-3 more impact years from him, everything after that is gravy, but i wouldn't pay for or trade for him expecting him to keep playing like a stud well into his 30s. it just doesn't happen all that much.

i think the texans are a QB away from being back in the playoff hunt. everything just went terrible for them this year. the bad luck run of pick 6s, injuries, a coach that knew he was done by mid season. they'll be much like the chiefs from 2012 to 2013 if they either draft a good QB that plays solid from the beginning or they manage to sign/trade for a guy like alex smith. they don't need a bunch of picks, so trading down doesn't make a ton of sense if they think bridgewater or whoever is by far the best QB in the draft. foster could easily come into the 2014 season as rested as ever after getting his back issues addressed and only playing a half season this year after being among the league leaders in touches the previous 3 seasons. there's not much trade market for foster, maybe a 2nd or 3rd round pick, but doubt they'd get a 1st rounder or multiple top 3 round picks. also, tate is a free agent, so they'd have to resign him, and he's been far more injury prone than foster, and i don't think dennis johnson is an every down back. so imo they'd essentially be saying they they could find a better RB with the 2nd or 3rd round pick they'd get for foster, which like flipping a coin. and despite common belief, prior to 2013, foster had only missed 2 games in his NFL career despite all the touches. i just think at this point, they are better off keeping foster, drafting bridgewater or another QB #1 and making a playoff run next year.

[dawgs]

What about Andre Johnson. You trade him too huh?

i'd be far more inclined to trade johnson than foster. he's older (he'll be 33 by next season), even more injury prone than foster, and despite his size and big catches/yardage numbers, he's never caught 10+ TDs. send him to a team that believes they are a big WR away from making a super bowl run for a 2nd or 3rd round pick and let hopkins be your WR1 moving forward.

[dawgs]

Jamaal Charles, LeSean McCoy, Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch, Frank Gore, Reggie Bush are RBs every team wants. Charles scored 5 tds 3 weeks ago.

really really bad tackling scored jamaal charles 5 TDs a couple weeks ago.

[smootness]

Manziel is smarter and tougher than most and he'll know to protect himself because it will be said to him about a billion times starting a minute after he gets drafted.

The problem is, once Manziel begins protecting himself, his effectiveness drops way down. You don't get the same player if he can't run around with his hair on fire. His improvisation and elusiveness is what made him so great in college; not only will that not work to nearly the same degree in the NFL, but his passing leaves a good bit to be desired. Manziel is no Cam Newton.

RGIII had a ton of success last year, then struggled big-time this year when he couldn't run around the same way. Kaepernick was incredible last year, then struggled this year when they took away a good bit of the read option so he wouldn't get killed. Russell Wilson continued to have success because he is an incredible passer; he just uses his legs to move around and buy himself time. Manziel could do this, too, but he isn't on the same level as a passer.

[dawgs]

The problem is, once Manziel begins protecting himself, his effectiveness drops way down. You don't get the same player if he can't run around with his hair on fire. His improvisation and elusiveness is what made him so great in college; not only will that not work to nearly the same degree in the NFL, but his passing leaves a good bit to be desired. Manziel is no Cam Newton.

RGIII had a ton of success last year, then struggled big-time this year when he couldn't run around the same way. Kaepernick was incredible last year, then struggled this year when they took away a good bit of the read option so he wouldn't get killed. Russell Wilson continued to have success because he is an incredible passer; he just uses his legs to move around and buy himself time. Manziel could do this, too, but he isn't on the same level as a passer.

manziel was a tremendously improved passer this year. that's the reason he's considered to be comfortably in the 1st round at this point.

kaepernick struggled this year because he didn't have his best WR weapon in crabtree. he's a young guy and he's not peyton or brady or rodgers or brees (at least yet), so losing his WR1 actually has a substantial impact on his performance. he was much better the last month of the season when crabtree came back. the book is still out on kap. the redskins situation was just toxic all around, RGIII should have never come back to start the year because he wasn't healthy. and it wasn't that it just limited his running ability, he wasn't pushing off his back leg to throw the ball. that's why he was struggling so much. the running might have had a bit to do with his dip in performance, but his passing numbers suffered primarily due to his mechanics going to shit and not pushing off with his back leg.

[Bubb Rubb]

If you are Texans management, would you look to shop him for picks or players. Texans just lost 14 straight, they need more help than Foster can give them.

It is silly to think that they need so much help. Foster is a top five RB when healthy. They have great wideouts in Johnson and Hopkins, a great kick returner, a really good tight end, and a pretty good defense. Their o-line isn't terrible. They have one of the most dominant defensive linemen in the game. They are not far at all from being a very good football team. Some coach is going to come in there and look like a genius next year.

They have secured the first pick. If they get Clowney, imagine the damage he and Watt would do.

They need help at QB, DB, and K. They are pretty set otherwise.

[Bubb Rubb]

I know most won't agree with me but if I'm Houston and I've got the #1 pick I'm drafting the home state hero John Football. Dude will be electric for 5 years and will make them a ton of money. I said the exact same thing about Carolina taking Cam Newton #1 and nobody agreed with me. Looks like a homerun pick by the Panthers now.

I don't agree. I just don't think Manziel will be a superstar at that level in the league. Comparing him to Cam Newton isn't fair..he isn't nearly as strong or durable as Newton. A better comp for him would be Russell Wilson, but Wilson plays under control more and has unbelievable accuracy.

[smootness]

I don't agree. I just don't think Manziel will be a superstar at that level in the league. Comparing him to Cam Newton isn't fair..he isn't nearly as strong or durable as Newton. A better comp for him would be Russell Wilson, but Wilson plays under control more and has unbelievable accuracy.

Manziel and Wilson are similar in some ways. Unfortunately for Manziel, the things that make them similar, being size, escapability, and improvisation (and Manziel is probably better in these areas than Wilson, to be fair) are not what make Wilson great.

The things that make Wilson great are that he legitimately has a great arm, in both strength and accuracy (Manziel isn't on the same level here) and that he is an incredibly good team leader; his character and work ethic are off the charts, and he is phenomenal in the locker room. Again, Manziel isn't on the same level here.

Wilson has also always thrown the ball very high so that while his field of vision may be impaired at times by his size, his arm slot isn't. Manziel's arm slot is a lot lower, and while that can be changed, it could be a problem for him.

He may have improved as a passer over where he was as a freshman, but he's still not good enough to stand back in the pocket in the NFL and have consistent success. The sole reason he was as good as he was in college is because he was unbelievably elusive and could just start running around and make guys miss. That would either open up the field for him to be able to take off, or it would cause defenders to lose their assignements and let receivers run free. It's a definite weapon that he has, but it's not unreasonable to think that will be severely reduced in the NFL.

And his arm just doesn't separate him from anybody else in the draft. Can you really see Jonny Manziel sitting in the pocket and being as good as pretty much anybody currently in the NFL? I can't.

[Dawg61]

The other QB I'd take besides JFF is AJ McCarron and AJ is a much safer pick than Football but I think he has a lower ceiling. AJ is the Alex Smith of the draft. No ****ing way I'd take Teddy Bridgewater #1.

[dawgs]

welp, it's apparent that some folks on this board can't separate CFB success from NFL potential.

aj mccarron is going to have a nice long career as a NFL backup QB, but i don't see him being anything more. he might get a few years to start if someone takes him in the 1st round, but he won't be a career starter.

[Dawg61]

welp, it's apparent that some folks on this board can't separate CFB success from NFL potential.

aj mccarron is going to have a nice long career as a NFL backup QB, but i don't see him being anything more. he might get a few years to start if someone takes him in the 1st round, but he won't be a career starter.

Again I got shitted on by everyone when I said I'd take Newton #1. The two best QBs in this draft are JFF and AJ. Bookmark my post and we'll revisit it later. It's easy to say someone is only a backup. How about you tell us who you think the best 2 QBs are instead. Saying you'd take Clowney #1 doesn't count either.

[dawgs]

Again I got shitted on by everyone when I said I'd take Newton #1. The two best QBs in this draft are JFF and AJ. Bookmark my post and we'll revisit it later. It's easy to say someone is only a backup. How about you tell us who you think the best 2 QBs are instead. Saying you'd take Clowney #1 doesn't count either.

i wouldn't take clowney #1 if there are viable potential franchise QBs on the board and you don't have a viable potential franchise QB on the roster. you don't win in the NFL without a franchise QB.

of the playoff teams this year, i'd say 8 or 9 of them have top 10 NFL QBs and all of them have top 15 QBs, though i guess you could argue about foles since he doesn't have as much track record, but he played great this year.

i think bridgewater is a better NFL prospect than JFF or AJ. i'd probably put JFF as my #2 QB in the draft. if brett hundley declares, i think he's #3. then you have guys like bortles and carr that are a bit tougher to project because for carr, the competition sucked, and for bortles, he's pretty new to the 1st round discussion, and i haven't really watched them as much, so they are kinda wild cards in my book. i also like mettenberger and murray more than AJ too. mett's injury might drop him behind AJ, but i'd prefer mett long term. murray's injury will likely hurt his draft status more than mett's, but he could be a GREAT late round steal by a team that can afford to give him a year to get healthy and then get a full offseason of prep before the 2015 season (i can already feel belichik eye balling him in the 5th round). boyd and AJ are kinda a toss up, but boyd has the higher ceiling imo, so i'd probably put him a hair above AJ. so i'd say looking over the next 10 years and considering potential and ceilings, i'd put AJ no higher than 5th best QB in the draft if hundley stays in school and 6th best if he declares, and maybe as low as 8th or 9th. he arguably has a higher floor than a lot of the other guys, but his ceiling is lower too. if i'm taking a 1st rounder, i want a guy with a high ceiling, because a guy doing just enough to hang onto his job isn't going to win you any rings as a starter. that'd be the type of guy you want for your backup. swing for the fences, because in the current NFL CBA, there's not nearly as much salary cap harm in having a 1st round QB bust as there was 4 or 5 years ago when guys like bradford, russel, and stafford were getting ridiculous guaranteed $$ before ever playing a down.

[smootness]

None of the QBs in the draft jump out to me. IMO, you're taking a huge gamble on any of them high in the 1st round. Bridgewater, Boyd, Bortles, Carr? Ugh. I do like Hundley, but I don't even see him as a guy that has a good chance to be an elite NFL QB. I don't get why so many QBs are projected so high, except that teams need one and will take chance after chance after chance to get 'the guy'.

I also like McCarron's potential in the NFL. I don't see him as a Ken Dorsey at all. He has a very good arm and knows how to run a pro offense. I think his numbers actually suffered because of the offense they ran; he could have lit it up if Saban wanted him to. I think he 'looks' the most like an NFL QB of the group.

I loved Russell Wilson and loved Luck 2 years ago. I thought last year's crop was awful. I think this year's crop is just tough to judge. I think a couple of guys could jump out and be studs in the NFL, but I can't tell you the guys who are most likely to do it.

[Dawg61]

i wouldn't take clowney #1 if there are viable potential franchise QBs on the board and you don't have a viable potential franchise QB on the roster. you don't win in the NFL without a franchise QB.

of the playoff teams this year, i'd say 8 or 9 of them have top 10 NFL QBs and all of them have top 15 QBs, though i guess you could argue about foles since he doesn't have as much track record, but he played great this year.

i think bridgewater is a better NFL prospect than JFF or AJ. i'd probably put JFF as my #2 QB in the draft. if brett hundley declares, i think he's #3. then you have guys like bortles and carr that are a bit tougher to project because for carr, the competition sucked, and for bortles, he's pretty new to the 1st round discussion, and i haven't really watched them as much, so they are kinda wild cards in my book. i also like mettenberger and murray more than AJ too. mett's injury might drop him behind AJ, but i'd prefer mett long term. murray's injury will likely hurt his draft status more than mett's, but he could be a GREAT late round steal by a team that can afford to give him a year to get healthy and then get a full offseason of prep before the 2015 season (i can already feel belichik eye balling him in the 5th round). boyd and AJ are kinda a toss up, but boyd has the higher ceiling imo, so i'd probably put him a hair above AJ. so i'd say looking over the next 10 years and considering potential and ceilings, i'd put AJ no higher than 5th best QB in the draft if hundley stays in school and 6th best if he declares, and maybe as low as 8th or 9th. he arguably has a higher floor than a lot of the other guys, but his ceiling is lower too. if i'm taking a 1st rounder, i want a guy with a high ceiling, because a guy doing just enough to hang onto his job isn't going to win you any rings as a starter. that'd be the type of guy you want for your backup. swing for the fences, because in the current NFL CBA, there's not nearly as much salary cap harm in having a 1st round QB bust as there was 4 or 5 years ago when guys like bradford, russel, and stafford were getting ridiculous guaranteed $$ before ever playing a down.

Great post. The issue I have with Bridgewater is his footwork and he gets flustered in the pocket easily. His arm is incredible but everything else is behind imo. I think NFL teams fall in love with the big arms and undervalue all other attributes a QB has. Peyton Manning doesn't have a rocket arm. Jamarcus Russell does.

[dawgs]

None of the QBs in the draft jump out to me. IMO, you're taking a huge gamble on any of them high in the 1st round. Bridgewater, Boyd, Bortles, Carr? Ugh. I do like Hundley, but I don't even see him as a guy that has a good chance to be an elite NFL QB. I don't get why so many QBs are projected so high, except that teams need one and will take chance after chance after chance to get 'the guy'.

I also like McCarron's potential in the NFL. I don't see him as a Ken Dorsey at all. He has a very good arm and knows how to run a pro offense. I think his numbers actually suffered because of the offense they ran; he could have lit it up if Saban wanted him to. I think he 'looks' the most like an NFL QB of the group.

I loved Russell Wilson and loved Luck 2 years ago. I thought last year's crop was awful. I think this year's crop is just tough to judge. I think a couple of guys could jump out and be studs in the NFL, but I can't tell you the guys who are most likely to do it.

but given the financial commitment to 1st round picks is a fraction of what it was a few years ago, it's worth gambling on a QB if you like him and don't think he'd make it past all the other QB-needy teams before your next pick. for instance, newton signed for 4 years for $22M all guaranteed. 1 year prior, bradford as the #1 pick signed a 6 year $78M contract, valued up to $86M with incentives, and $50M guaranteed. it doesn't hurt nearly as much if your 1st round QB busts out. hell, you can turn around and take one again the following year if he's really really bad and not have it financially cripple your franchise. but you have to have a franchise QB if you want to win consistently in the NFL. if you don't have one, then you can have all the defensive studs and skill players in the world, but you'll struggle to put together consistent winning campaigns and truly compete for a super bowl.

[smootness]

but given the financial commitment to 1st round picks is a fraction of what it was a few years ago, it's worth gambling on a QB if you like him and don't think he'd make it past all the other QB-needy teams before your next pick. for instance, newton signed for 4 years for $22M all guaranteed. 1 year prior, bradford as the #1 pick signed a 6 year $78M contract, valued up to $86M with incentives, and $50M guaranteed. it doesn't hurt nearly as much if your 1st round QB busts out. hell, you can turn around and take one again the following year if he's really really bad and not have it financially cripple your franchise. but you have to have a franchise QB if you want to win consistently in the NFL. if you don't have one, then you can have all the defensive studs and skill players in the world, but you'll struggle to put together consistent winning campaigns and truly compete for a super bowl.

I agree with all of this, but I'm not even sure I think any of them are worth gambling on.

[Dawg61]

Teams will be drooling next year for Famous Jameis. I wonder which teams will tank on purpose to try to get him.

[dawgs]

Great post. The issue I have with Bridgewater is his footwork and he gets flustered in the pocket easily. His arm is incredible but everything else is behind imo. I think NFL teams fall in love with the big arms and undervalue all other attributes a QB has. Peyton Manning doesn't have a rocket arm. Jamarcus Russell does.

his footwork may not be perfect, but he completed over 71% of his passes this year and over 68% last year. accuracy is one of his strongest attributes, and it's what is talked about with regards to his passing more than his arm strength. the biggest negative i've seen mentioned with regards to bridgewater is that he's pretty skinny.

now i don't think bridgewater is as good of a QB prospect as luck/RG3 or newton, but like i said, if you are a QB needy team, you know he's not going to be there with your 2nd pick, so if he's your #1 QB on the board, you make the pick. now when you look at the draft order, it appears even more likely that bridgewater (or another QB goes #1). the texans need a QB. picking #2 is the rams, who don't need a QB, but would love clowney, and the rams have the picks to move up to take him. however, they know the texans are very very unlikely to take clowney (beside DE being low on their priorities, if they stick with a 3-4, clowney won't fit the scheme). after the rams, you have to go down all the way to #6 to find the next team that won't be looking for a QB (falcons). and after the julio trade a few years ago, the falcons don't have the pieces to really move up to #1. plus it's highly unlikely that a QB-needy team would be willing to drop that far in the draft behind so many other QB-needy teams unless all the QBs entering the draft struggle in the senior bowls/pro days/combines/etc.

[dawgs]

I agree with all of this, but I'm not even sure I think any of them are worth gambling on.

when your other options are the likes of christian ponder, blaine gabbert, case keenum, brandon weeden/jason campbell/brian hoyer, etc., they it's worth the gamble.

but i guess really, it comes down to how you evaluate the top 10 or so QBs and how much of a gap you see between say bridgewater and AJ/mett/boyd or another guy that would be available in the 2nd or 3rd round. if you clearly think bridgewater or someone else is the best potential, then you take him. if the difference between bridgewater and guys projected to be there in the 2nd or 3rd round is negligible in your mind, then maybe you don't gamble.

[Political Hack]

If they use their #1 to pick Johnny Football they should fire the GM and their new coach immediately.

If they want him, they should trade down, pick up an extra pick, and get a player who can help them immediately.