The scramble to host a Regional

[Coach34]

ok- as the last couple of weeks are here- its time to look at the battle to host for the SEC:

State- 14-10. RPI is 18. play @UPig and then home to Mizzou. We simply have to win one against UPig to stay in the mix to host. Get swept and hosting is out. Winning the series would almost guarantee it. Handle bidness vs Mizzou with a sweep being especially helpful as 18 wins would damn near lock it up

Georgia- 13-11 in the SEC after sweeping Candy. RPI is 5. @SC and then home to the desperate Fla Gators. They are in great shape to be a host and pushing for a national seed if they continue to roll

SC- 13-11 in the SEC after saving G3 vs Mizzou to win the series. RPI is 13. Home to Georgia and then @Tenn. In a great position to host as well unless they have a complete breakdown.

Candy- 11-13 in the SEC losing 5 of last 6 to State and Georgia. RPI is 26 now. We broke them. Home to Tenn and then @TheKentuckyClownShow. Chances of hosting are slimmer than Will Rogers throwing a pass longer than 10 yards

Bammer- 10-14 in the SEC with an RPI of 14. Conference record is hurting them but RPI keeps them alive. LSU at home and then @Auburn. 5-1 and they likely host. finishing below .500 would really hurt their chances but not a complete deal killer

We are also battling teams from other conferences on the host bubble obviously but it comes down to us doing our job.

RPI teams:

#25 Mississippi (RPI gives them life but its mighty dim making a Regional)
#24 Oklahoma St
#23- Florida
#22- Duke
#21- Nebraska
#20- Dallas Baptist
#19- NC State
#18- State
#17- Oklahoma
#16- UC Santa Barbara

[basedog]

Interesting stuff. I think 7 make the hosting from the Sec. But it's only what I think.

[MoreCowbell]

I have a hard time seeing us not hosting if we win 1 at Ark and take 2 from Mizzou. 17-14 likely puts us at 5th place in the SEC and probably an RPI around 20. I would think that gets it done.

[Todd4State]

Also if Georgia is the team that is rumored to be cheating and that actually comes to light soon- that's probably very much in our favor too. They may end up getting disqualified from the regionals altogether if that happens.

[Todd4State]

Like Base said I think we're starting to run into the issue of how many SEC teams the committee will take this year.

Right now we're number 10 in KPI the metric the committee is supposed to be using this year which is 6th in the SEC. Looking at the data I think our main competition is Georgia who has a higher RPI and KPI however, they have a worse SEC record, we beat them head to head and I'm not sure how the committee is going to view our loss to them being how weird it was and grossly mismanaged it was. Georgia and South Carolina will probably cannibalize each other and then South Carolina has Tennessee.

Here is how I see it for us:

Arkansas series- this is basically like us playing with house money. If we win it helps a lot and if we lose it won't hurt that bad. How many we win will determine how many we have to win against Mizzou which to me in some ways is more important. Win one and we essentially hold our ground.

North Alabama- Just have to win. Can NOT afford another Central Arkansas situation. The scary thing for us is assuming Pico moves to the rotation who do we start? We can't afford to "see if Colby Holcombe has figured it out" and we really probably need someone like Cam Schuelke to eat up a ton of innings. Hopefully this gets rained out but who knows a week from now what the weather will be?

Mizzou- Really need to sweep. Like I said a loss here could be offset by a win against Arkansas. Mizzou is not a good team- but they're good enough to beat us on any random day. We're going to need to focus and play clean baseball to sweep. The problem with Mizzou is their metrics are bad so any loss hurts.

I think if we get to 17 we host. My mind hasn't really changed about that. I'm not sure that the Mizzou/Arkansas combination matters much as long as we get there.

If Alabama loses one more SEC game I don't think they host. That would go against recent precedent but IF they did that would be good news for us IMO because there is no way they would host with a worse record than us assuming we win at least two more games. And I think LSU beats them at least once. Vanderbilt is in the same boat with a more difficult schedule and Leiter and Rocker ain't walking through that door.

[Santiago]

State not having to play 3 of the top 4 east teams, and a weak non-conference to me is the knock on our strength of schedule.

[Pancho]

and we struggle vs juco pitching

[Todd4State]

State not having to play 3 of the top 4 east teams, and a weak non-conference to me is the knock on our strength of schedule.

Not a big issue with the committee. Last time I looked our SOS is 18.

Funny thing though is we had so many fans talking about how brutal our SEC schedule was preseason.

[Coach34]

yeah- we have the 18th toughest schedule in the country right now. So soft

[Cooterpoot]

I have a hard time seeing us not hosting if we win 1 at Ark and take 2 from Mizzou. 17-14 likely puts us at 5th place in the SEC and probably an RPI around 20. I would think that gets it done.

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

We don't have to win both. I think getting one against Arky is paramount though. We have to get one there and then probably sweep Mizzou. I'll believe we're actually playing that UNA game when I see it.

[Homedawg]

We don't have to win both. I think getting one against Arky is paramount though. We have to get one there and then probably sweep Mizzou. I'll believe we're actually playing that UNA game when I see it.

I'd love to be wrong. But I think we have to get to 18 sec wins and it's not a guarantee but feel good. At 17 better have one against ark. Something just says we get left out at 17. Obviously, games other than ours have to be played and can move things one way on another. Think win 5 out of 6 and we have taken it of the committees hands.

[State82]

I'd love to be wrong. But I think we have to get to 18 sec wins and it's not a guarantee but feel good. At 17 better have one against ark. Something just says we get left out at 17. Obviously, games other than ours have to be played and can move things one way on another. Think win 5 out of 6 and we have taken it of the committees hands.

I agree. I would be shocked to get a host spot with 17 conference wins. Now 18, I think that is a good possibility.

[StarkVegasSteve]

I'd love to be wrong. But I think we have to get to 18 sec wins and it's not a guarantee but feel good. At 17 better have one against ark. Something just says we get left out at 17. Obviously, games other than ours have to be played and can move things one way on another. Think win 5 out of 6 and we have taken it of the committees hands.

We win 2 of 3 at Arky and outside of losing the series to Mizzou we will host. No one has taken a series at Arky all year and only Florida and James Madison have won there. I mean they are 31-2 at home. To go in there and take a series against arguably the best home team in college baseball would be a LOUD statement. Then again, we went into Alex Box last year and took a series so it could happen.

[Homedawg]

We win 2 of 3 at Arky and outside of losing the series to Mizzou we will host. No one has taken a series at Arky all year and only Florida and James Madison have won there. I mean they are 31-2 at home. To go in there and take a series against arguably the best home team in college baseball would be a LOUD statement. Then again, we went into Alex Box last year and took a series so it could happen.

I said if we get to 18 I feel good but no guarantee. Now if the 4 are 2 and 2. I think it's a lot closer to a lock.

[Coach34]

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

Win the UPig series and we are guaranteed. Nolan has us at a 26 predicted RPI and that includes UPig sweeping us.

[somebodyshotmypaw]

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

I disagree. If we win 1 at Arkansas and then sweep Missouri, we would be 18-12 in SEC play. I think 18-12 gets a regional host.

[Todd4State]

I don't think that will do it. Our RPI takes a hit against UNA, so drop us about 5 spots. We need to win both series to host IMO. Not even sure that gets it done but will be close.

I would be surprised if we drop 5 spots for playing UNA. Some of the teams around us like Cal Santa Barbara have entire series against teams with similar RPI's.

[Cooterpoot]

I would be surprised if we drop 5 spots for playing UNA. Some of the teams around us like Cal Santa Barbara have entire series against teams with similar RPI's.

I think it's about a 5 spot drop based on their numbers. Almost certainly a 3 spot drop. But you can make it up by winning games.
Softball is in a very similar position. AL who is three spots behind us in the conference has a higher RPI and projected to just over us. RPI is 100% manufactured horse shit used to get things done a certain way.

[Commercecomet24]

I think it's about a 5 spot drop based on their numbers. Almost certainly a 3 spot drop. But you can make it up by winning games.
Softball is in a very similar position. AL who is three spots behind us in the conference has a higher RPI and projected to just over us. RPI is 100% manufactured horse shit used to get things done a certain way.

Yep, you nailed it!