Mississippi State Baseball Expectations

[StarkVegasSteve]

These are reasonable expectations every 10 year stretch:

Make the tournament at least 9 times (should be 10, but sometimes you just get really bad luck in baseball)
Host a regional at least 5 times
Win a regional at least 5 times
Make it to Omaha at least 3 times

We are one of only 4 fanbases who care about winning in baseball, and at worst we care the 2nd most (and you could make an argument that we're ahead of LSU and are #1). These are modest goals with that in mind.


For comparison, in the 10 year stretch from 2011 through 2021 (remembering that 2020 was canceled), we made 9 Regionals, hosted 4 times, won 7 regionals, and made Omaha 4 times, winning it all once. That's hitting 3 of those 4 expectations, exceeding 2 of them and missing the hosting just by 1. That's a very successful decade, and one that we should be replicating in any rolling 10.

That 10 stretch was without a doubt the most successful in program history. I think it also spoiled the fanbase. We are a program that gets to Omaha once every 4-6 years. Making the tournament and hosting every other year should be the standard. Making Omaha 4 times in a 10 year stretch and 3 straight years is not our historical norm.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Make the tourney and be in a Super more often than not

Agreed!

So you agree that if Lemo doesn't make a Super, he should be fired, right? I mean missing the postseason 2/3 years bland not making a Super the 3rd is certainly falling very short of the standard, is it not?

[Santiago]

That 10 stretch was without a doubt the most successful in program history. I think it also spoiled the fanbase. We are a program that gets to Omaha once every 4-6 years. Making the tournament and hosting every other year should be the standard. Making Omaha 4 times in a 10 year stretch and 3 straight years is not our historical norm.

Saying it spoiled us might be true about some fans but not all. It also ingnited our base to see our full potential when we are trying every year to knock down doors.
We had a legendary coach whose recruiting was "have the kid come to my camp". Whatever he did, and his methods were perfectly fine with our fan base for way too many years, as we saw Ole Miss hire a coach that started taking the kids in MS and surrounding areas that used to be ours.

I think there is truth from both aspects about the past 10 years. Maybe some raised the bar too much, but then others see what our stadium, NIL, and fan support can really do with a coach that is a recruiter and evaluator of talent.
We don't want to go back to the Lazy Boy recliner and lower the bar, and in no way do I want to see MSU baseball go back to that complacency.

So when I hear people say our fan base is spoiled over the past 10 years.....I hear that but also get vibes of the old fan base complacency that you say we historically should accept.

[StarkVegasSteve]

Saying it spoiled us might be true about some fans but not all. It also ingnited our base to see our full potential when we are trying every year to knock down doors.
We had a legendary coach whose recruiting was "have the kid come to my camp". Whatever he did, and his methods were perfectly fine with our fan base for way too many years, as we saw Ole Miss hire a coach that started taking the kids in MS and surrounding areas that used to be ours.

I think there is truth from both aspects about the past 10 years. Maybe some raised the bar too much, but then others see what our stadium, NIL, and fan support can really do with a coach that is a recruiter and evaluator of talent.
We don't want to go back to the Lazy Boy recliner and lower the bar, and in no way do I want to see MSU baseball go back to that complacency.

So when I hear people say our fan base is spoiled over the past 10 years.....I hear that but also get vibes of the old fan base complacency that you say we historically should accept.

Not just our fanbase, but ANY fanbase would have been spoiled with that. In 10 years we had 8 tournament appearances (COVID took away 2020 season), 7 Supers, 4 CWS appearances, and a national championship. In today's college baseball world where more than 10 programs care, that is a ABSURD hit rate for success.

[Santiago]

Not just our fanbase, but ANY fanbase would have been spoiled with that. In 10 years we had 8 tournament appearances (COVID took away 2020 season), 7 Supers, 4 CWS appearances, and a national championship. In today's college baseball world where more than 10 programs care, that is a ABSURD hit rate for success.

You are right. But I think though there is just this concern to not let us fall all the way back to complacency in the Polk years when Bianco was running circles around him. To me, that should not be part of our historical expectations, and when I read it on our boards it is frustrating to hear people say historically we should accept that crap from back then.

[StarkVegasSteve]

You are right. But I think though there is just this concern to not let us fall all the way back to complacency in the Polk years when Bianco was running circles around him. To me, that should not be part of our historical expectations, and when I read it on our boards it is frustrating to hear people say historically we should accept that crap from back then.

Definitely concern there. Recruiting, which was the reason that Bianco was running circles around us, has not fallen off to this point so I still think we will be ok if we continue building on the success of this season.

[Coach34]

In general, I agree with those expectations. I will say this though - when you are considering "is the coach meeting expectations", I think you have to be more holistic about the program and measure it by more then a singular item. There are so many more variables in college baseball now versus even a decade ago. More schools are spending big. There has been a massive talent trickle down effect from MLB cutting the draft in half and killing 40 MiLB teams. NIL is a now a factor. And we play by far in the toughest conference in the country. One season doesn't make a program, but the wrong decision can break one.

The run we had from 2011-2021 was the best stretch in program history and resulted in our finally reaching the pinnacle. We put every single ounce of effort we had into getting not just baseball, but our entire university over a major psychological hump.
Additionally, the program had to overcome massive coaching instability to do it. And if you don't think that was a herculean effort - just look at what similar instability has done to football post-Mullen. Frankly, I think we were lucky to have some of the right players, with the most supportive fanbase in the country, and that's the only reason we made it through that without imploding. I don't think there is another program in the country that could have come out the other side of that and won a Natty. We can't take that for granted, but it doesn't make us immune from having bad years either.

This cant be said any better. We had our best 10 year period ever and now people want to act like that's the standard when its really not. We had a great run.

Nobody is accepting losing or becoming complacent. Lemon knew coming into this season his job was on the line. He and the team are responding. We'll see how it all ends up and what Regional we get in. The same morons saying we gonna suck next year were the same morons saying we would suck this year and not make the Tourney. We had no talent. We were too good of a program to have a kid from Purdue pitch for us. All that ridiculous crap before the season even started.

[StarkVegasSteve]

This cant be said any better. We had our best 10 year period ever and now people want to act like that's the standard when its really not. We had a great run.

Nobody is accepting losing or becoming complacent. Lemon knew coming into this season his job was on the line. He and the team are responding. We'll see how it all ends up and what Regional we get in. The same morons saying we gonna suck next year were the same morons saying we would suck this year and not make the Tourney. We had no talent. We were too good of a program to have a kid from Purdue pitch for us. All that ridiculous crap before the season even started.

And I will admit I was one of those people. But when you take a step back and look at the numbers, there was no way we could keep THAT TYPE of success. We obviously don't want years like the last two but this year is getting us back to normal. Competing for hosting on a yearly basis and safely in the tournament.

[BuckyIsAB****]

So im reading the argument is, bc we had a really good run for 10 years we should accept our current staff underachieving 3 years in a row. And arguably underachieving during the middle of our good run that they didnt build.

That is pretty stupid IMO. Making excuses

[Santiago]

And I will admit I was one of those people. But when you take a step back and look at the numbers, there was no way we could keep THAT TYPE of success. We obviously don't want years like the last two but this year is getting us back to normal. Competing for hosting on a yearly basis and safely in the tournament.

My take is leave out the "historical MSU" part, because there are parts of that where our fan base never expected more and never challenged our coach. The recruiting was outdated, while our instate rival took total advantage of that.
I can understand asking people to calm down on the past 10 years, but I cannot start hearing people say "historically". That just screams Ron Pok 2.
And currently (not from you), but we have a split on Lemonis on the boards. I see both viewpoints. Some may just be concerned our old Ron Polk fan base is coming out of people and getting comfortable to say "this is as good as we can be these days"

[StarkVegasSteve]

So im reading the argument is, bc we had a really good run for 10 years we should accept our current staff underachieving 3 years in a row. And arguably underachieving during the middle of our good run that they didnt build.

That is pretty stupid IMO. Making excuses

I don't think anyone has said that. What most, including myself, are saying is that 10 year run can't be the expectation. You can't expect a hit rate like that in this college baseball environment. Also, the amount of MLB talent we got to campus. Stratton, Renfroe, Woodruff, Lowe, Rooker, Bednar, Sims, Ginn, Small, Foscue, Westburg.....all in that 10 year span. We had 9 1st round picks from 2012-2022. We had 10 from 1966-2011 That's an almost unfathomable recruiting hit rate.

[BuckyIsAB****]

I don't think anyone has said that. What most, including myself, are saying is that 10 year run can't be the expectation. You can't expect a hit rate like that in this college baseball environment. Also, the amount of MLB talent we got to campus. Stratton, Renfroe, Woodruff, Lowe, Rooker, Bednar, Sims, Ginn, Small, Foscue, Westburg.....all in that 10 year span. We had 9 1st round picks from 2012-2022. We had 10 from 1966-2011 That's an almost unfathomable recruiting hit rate.

And we are here now bc of an unfathomable miss rate. I am glad we are better than 13th and 14th place. But that aint hard to do

[StarkVegasSteve]

And we are here now bc of an unfathomable miss rate. I am glad we are better than 13th and 14th place. But that aint hard to do

Every team has misses. We are not immune to them. Go look at LSU this year, I think they would trade Holman in a heartbeat for Khal Stephen.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

This is such a stawman argument. Nobody is saying 2011-2021 is the norm and we'll fire any coach that doesn't immediately live up to the expectations.

But even if they were, that has NOTHING to do with Lemo. He missed the postseason entirely these past 2 years. This year, he'll probably make the tourney but as a bubble team and we're going to have to keep an eye on the wins column till the last weekend.

Is that acceptable as the standard? Miss tourney year 4, miss tourney year 5, make tourney with no room to spare year 6 = "hell yeah let's bring him back for year 7!"?

[Santiago]

Every team has misses. We are not immune to them. Go look at LSU this year, I think they would trade Holman in a heartbeat for Khal Stephen.

LSU now has the number 1 recruiting class for 2024.

We have had 3 years of nothing great, and now this lineup is mostly gone after this season.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Lemon knew coming into this season his job was on the line. He and the team are responding.

Let's do the math here. Fan support? #1 in the nation. Facilities? Probably still #1, certainly top3. Coaching pay? Top 10 total staff pay. NIL? Certainly top 20, probably top 15. Name brand recognition and recent success that should make us attractive to big recruits/transfers? Top 10. Recent recruiting class ranking? Top 15 every year. You yourself have gone on and on about how talented this team is and how many players will get drafted.

And yet, you take all that top 15 components and talent, you add in Lemonis as the head man, and what do you get? Not a host team, but a bubble team.

This year isn't a "response", it's an underperformance. It's only relative to '22 and '23 you can call it good. By the pure factual math of our resources, we should be a host team.

[Coach34]

So im reading the argument is, bc we had a really good run for 10 years we should accept our current staff underachieving 3 years in a row. And arguably underachieving during the middle of our good run that they didnt build.

We are tied for 5th in the SEC- how is that underachieving this year? We were picked last in the West but currently 3rd. We are actually overachieving.

[Coach34]

This is such a stawman argument. Nobody is saying 2011-2021 is the norm and we'll fire any coach that doesn't immediately live up to the expectations.

Q literally posted that the last 10 years should pretty much be that standard

We are not a bubble team currently. Strong 2 seed. Florida and Bama are the bubble teams currently

[Santiago]

We are tied for 5th in the SEC- how is that underachieving this year? We were picked last in the West but currently 3rd. We are actually overachieving.

Let's see where we finish, because we have won only 1 series against an NCAA regional team.
But also, those midweek losses, and series losses early season do count also as a disappointment.
We had to pitch our weekend pitchers to hang on against Memphis.

Need some wins at Vandy, Arky, and with Bama.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

We are tied for 5th in the SEC- how is that underachieving this year? We were picked last in the West but currently 3rd. We are actually overachieving.

Oh I wasn't aware we cancelled our out of conference games.

If you exclude the games you don't like and look only at SEC wins and loses, yes we're doing fine. If you include our entire season? We're unranked and our RPI is in the 40s. We've also played a weak SEC schedule so far.


As for where we were picked? That was because Lemo sucked so hard the media assumed he'd suck again. Not because our talented level warranted a last place finish. Hell, even if our talent WAS bad, that's on Lemo in year 6.

You have been the one saying this team would have a ton of players drafted, be among the top in the country in that regard. Where's my "among the top in the country" performance to go with it? Lemo is dragging us down, he just is