Hey SVd

[starkvegasdawg]

I know the NWS has south MS as moderate, but what are your projections for Hattie?

I think right now the mod risk is warranted, but it's conditional. There's a couple of possible kill switches still in play. The first is the track of the low. That will determine how large the open warm sector will be. The other is will the morning storms kill the instability and hamper destabilization again. This may just end up being a rainy mess with a couple of severe storms. If neither of those happen then a significant event could unfold.

[Commercecomet24]

I think right now the mod risk is warranted, but it's conditional. There's a couple of possible kill switches still in play. The first is the track of the low. That will determine how large the open warm sector will be. The other is will the morning storms kill the instability and hamper destabilization again. This may just end up being a rainy mess with a couple of severe storms. If neither of those happen then a significant event could unfold.

I follow Nick Lilja too and just explained the exact same scenario you did. Makes me trust Nick a little more since you have been extremely accurate over the years. Thanks for all you do, my man!