Tough weekend for ranked teams

[CaptainObvious]

Let's see how the next two weeks unfold! I can become a believer with winning 7 of the next 8.

[Commercecomet24]

How about looking at it in the correct view point... we have a team that won't stop fighting and very well SHOULD have swept (instead of just winning the series) if not for one of the worst fuc*ups by the sec in conference history.

This is the correct point of view!

[Todd4State]

My god man let the season play out before you claim victory

You may want to take your own advice.

[Todd4State]

I love it tho- so many posters said this team would suck and Lemon was a waste. Surely to be fired.

We are about to be ranked in the Top 20 and 6-6 in the SEC so far when fans expected a 3-9

Oh yes! Wasn't Lemonis supposed to be fired by this weekend for going 0-9 against LSU, A&M and Florida?**

Now he still might get fired but it definitely won't be in season unless he murders the SEC official that decided to suspend the entire starting nine.

[Todd4State]

My goodness then you haven't been reading the board. For the last 2 week's multiple posters have been saying we have no clutch players because we keep losing one run games. Go look it's not hard to find because I've debated them on it. You don't watch other college teams play do you? I can tell because if you watch teams from around the country(outside of a very few)you see the same thing you're complaining about us about. We have talent we have toughness. Our pitching and defense has been stellar and that's what wins in baseball. I challenge you to watch some other teams play and you might just find out we're pretty good.

Let's see how the season plays out.

There was literally a thread about be 1-7 in one run games or something.

Our fans do really need to go watch a college baseball game somewhere other than Dudy Noble for a game or two. Not Millsaps. Like Memphis or Arkansas State. Or really any other SEC team.

Really the two major issues I honestly see are we don't have a defined Sunday starter mostly because apparently they were expecting Dohm back but I think they definitely need to pivot on that now and we probably will and we still don't have a defined closer. But we do have Schulke, Hardin, and Tyler Davis that appear to be capable. I'm not even going to factor in Dohm there at this point. I think if we settle on the Sunday spot it will help the bullpen a lot because we constantly overextend guys like Siary.

We're not perfect- but we're solid in most spots. Like Kohler and Long give us only so much on offense but they defend well and Long leads. Larry is slumping a bit but still finds ways on base. Hines and Jordan do too much sometimes but they're also very dangerous. Chance isn't all SEC but he doesn't usually strike out. Hujsack strikes out too much sometimes but he also causes things to happen and is the third most dangerous hitter in out lineup.

[Johnson85]

But weren't people just complaining about us not winning close games? Well this weekend says we may have changed that by winning close games. There are no style points in baseball a close win is a win period. Every win in the sec is earned regardless!

We defnitely are showing some improvement there. We aren't what I would consider clutch, but close games are toss ups for us now, where as we were losing way more than our fair share of them the last two years. Some of that was a pitching talent issue, but a lot of it was just being mentally weak (granted when you know you can't trust your pitching, I can see how that causes players to get tight and press in the field and at the plate in close games).

We can no longer be counted on to fold in a tight situation. That's a major improvement. And with how fast that improvement came, maybe by the end of the year we will be one of those teams that is able to step up when in tight games and win more than our fair share of them.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

You may want to take your own advice.

I predicted last June that we'd sneak into a regional and get bounced and keep Lemo, and then suck in '25 and move on. I have never predicted we'd miss the '24 tournament to my memory, but I may have said something like that when I was emotional after a bad early season loss idk. My sane mind has never made that prediction at least lol

Moreover, I'm not claiming to know how the season will end. That's C34 who's saying we will be in the host discussion and comfortably in the tournament. That's in the range of outcomes to me but it seems more likely we fall short of that to me at least.

I think the stats and record show are about the 8th or 9th best team in the SEC. Maybe 7th if we get more offensive production and avoid more injuries. Not sure what's controversial about that but I guess it is given the response I've gotten for my takes

[BrunswickDawg]

We defnitely are showing some improvement there. We aren't what I would consider clutch, but close games are toss ups for us now, where as we were losing way more than our fair share of them the last two years. Some of that was a pitching talent issue, but a lot of it was just being mentally weak (granted when you know you can't trust your pitching, I can see how that causes players to get tight and press in the field and at the plate in close games).

We can no longer be counted on to fold in a tight situation. That's a major improvement. And with how fast that improvement came, maybe by the end of the year we will be one of those teams that is able to step up when in tight games and win more than our fair share of them.

Define clutch for me. Yeah, we were 1-7 in one run games coming into the weekend. I think 4 of those losses were games we were behind by more than 1 and cut the lead to 1.
Is clutch being 2nd in the SEC in hitting with runners on base (.338)? Or is it being in 2nd in hitting with RISP (.364)? Maybe its hitting 4th in the league with the bases loaded (.357)?
Maybe it is leading the league in Pinch-Hitting Avg. (.400)? Or hitting a 2nd best .313 with 2 outs?

I'm kind of at a loss here so, fill me in.

[the_real_MSU_is_us]

Define clutch for me. Yeah, we were 1-7 in one run games coming into the weekend. I think 4 of those losses were games we were behind by more than 1 and cut the lead to 1.
Is clutch being 2nd in the SEC in hitting with runners on base (.338)? Or is it being in 2nd in hitting with RISP (.364)? Maybe its hitting 4th in the league with the bases loaded (.357)?
Maybe it is leading the league in Pinch-Hitting Avg. (.400)? Or hitting a 2nd best .313 with 2 outs?

I'm kind of at a loss here so, fill me in.

Where are you getting these stats Id love to go check out that site

[Commercecomet24]

Define clutch for me. Yeah, we were 1-7 in one run games coming into the weekend. I think 4 of those losses were games we were behind by more than 1 and cut the lead to 1.
Is clutch being 2nd in the SEC in hitting with runners on base (.338)? Or is it being in 2nd in hitting with RISP (.364)? Maybe its hitting 4th in the league with the bases loaded (.357)?
Maybe it is leading the league in Pinch-Hitting Avg. (.400)? Or hitting a 2nd best .313 with 2 outs?

I'm kind of at a loss here so, fill me in.

It's because most people on here only watch us, and see our warts. They don't watch any other college baseball and don't see the struggle other teams have. If you look at our stats with RISP it's really amazing. Dakota is hitting over 400 with RISP, I bet folks don't realize Larry is over 350 with RISP, Mershon, Hujsak, Chance, Long all over 300 with RISP. Hines is at 280 with RISP, I don't understand what more people can ask for. Also people keep saying Long doesn't help on offense but his OBP is 444, he has 6 sac bunts, 3 hit and run base hits and has stolen 3 bases.

[BrunswickDawg]

Where are you getting these stats Id love to go check out that site

You have to scroll deep into the PDF - but the SEC publishes it every day. https://www.secsports.com/2024-baseball-stats-pdf

[msstate7]

I think 1-run losses/wins are sorta flukish and not really predictive

[Commercecomet24]

I think 1-run losses/wins are sorta flukish and not really predictive

I agree.

[Johnson85]

I think 1-run losses/wins are sorta flukish and not really predictive

Most baseball stats are flukish in the short term and not really predictive. Even with 50+ games, you throw in the early part of the season where it's cold weather and players are still semi- shaking off rust, a minor injury or two, and playing weaker competition OOC and in midweek games, and you don't have that many games to assess any one particular player against good competition where they are 100%.

[Johnson85]

Define clutch for me. Yeah, we were 1-7 in one run games coming into the weekend. I think 4 of those losses were games we were behind by more than 1 and cut the lead to 1.
Is clutch being 2nd in the SEC in hitting with runners on base (.338)? Or is it being in 2nd in hitting with RISP (.364)? Maybe its hitting 4th in the league with the bases loaded (.357)?
Maybe it is leading the league in Pinch-Hitting Avg. (.400)? Or hitting a 2nd best .313 with 2 outs?

I'm kind of at a loss here so, fill me in.

Generally, winning more close games than you lose. That can hide issues (if you have a talented team with a focus issue, they're probably going to win a lot of games that shouldn't have been close to begin with), but it's a good enough metric over time. I was really referring more to last year's team folding than this years, but we definitely caught some bad losses early on. How much of that was "just baseball" versus us just not having things figured out yet versus not being clutch (I assume more of the former two than the latter one; but it's possible players may have still been expecting the other shoe to drop in close games early on because of last year's team and it got in their head).

[msstate7]

Most baseball stats are flukish in the short term and not really predictive. Even with 50+ games, you throw in the early part of the season where it's cold weather and players are still semi- shaking off rust, a minor injury or two, and playing weaker competition OOC and in midweek games, and you don't have that many games to assess any one particular player against good competition where they are 100%.

I agree.

[BrunswickDawg]

Generally, winning more close games than you lose. That can hide issues (if you have a talented team with a focus issue, they're probably going to win a lot of games that shouldn't have been close to begin with), but it's a good enough metric over time. I was really referring more to last year's team folding than this years, but we definitely caught some bad losses early on. How much of that was "just baseball" versus us just not having things figured out yet versus not being clutch (I assume more of the former two than the latter one; but it's possible players may have still been expecting the other shoe to drop in close games early on because of last year's team and it got in their head).

Gotcha. Makes sense. I think close games definitely got in the head of the '22 an '23 teams. The '22 team blew something like 15 leads after the 7th inning - and I think that carried over some last year.
Like all stats and general analysis in baseball, you really have to look at the total package and put it in some context. As you note, the "just baseball" factor looms large and it is a long season. How many years from 2011-2018 did we start off kind of scuffling, get to the half way point in the SEC schedule and then catch fire in the back half and clinch post season - cause it seemed like almost every year.

I think this year the early losses in close games has been more about finding the right lineup and roles out of the pen. We seem to be productive in close games - and very good at making games competitive after getting down early.

[Commercecomet24]

Gotcha. Makes sense. I think close games definitely got in the head of the '22 an '23 teams. The '22 team blew something like 15 leads after the 7th inning - and I think that carried over some last year.
Like all stats and general analysis in baseball, you really have to look at the total package and put it in some context. As you note, the "just baseball" factor looms large and it is a long season. How many years from 2011-2018 did we start off kind of scuffling, get to the half way point in the SEC schedule and then catch fire in the back half and clinch post season - cause it seemed like almost every year.

I think this year the early losses in close games has been more about finding the right lineup and roles out of the pen. We seem to be productive in close games - and very good at making games competitive after getting down early.

I heard Bobby Cox say one time, You will win a third of your games, you will lose a third of your games, it's what you do with the other third that makes you a winner or a loser and if you study the game that pretty much holds true.

[MoreCowbell]

We only moved up 1 spot. 5 teams jumped us that were unranked last week. UCF, Oregon, LouisianaL, Oklahoma State all jumped us

[Bdawg]

It's because most people on here only watch us, and see our warts. They don't watch any other college baseball and don't see the struggle other teams have. If you look at our stats with RISP it's really amazing. Dakota is hitting over 400 with RISP, I bet folks don't realize Larry is over 350 with RISP, Mershon, Hujsak, Chance, Long all over 300 with RISP. Hines is at 280 with RISP, I don't understand what more people can ask for. Also people keep saying Long doesn't help on offense but his OBP is 444, he has 6 sac bunts, 3 hit and run base hits and has stolen 3 bases.

Maybe Larry need to move down and hit more with runners on!! Ha