Daniels averaged 7 pts a game in JUCO. He'll be more athletic than Borchert but he won't be a shooter.
Ndoye was playing on a very good team but he's still a developmental player.
Houston is extremely athletic and has good length but again, extremely raw and not a true scorer.
Ware is good and should improve but he'll be our only down low option on offense.
Sword is what he is.
Ready better score more than 8-10/game next year or its going to be tough to make NIT.
My concerns (and others too) with Ray are that he is attempting to take on too many developmental players. He's pretty much already filled up the next 2 classes and there isn't a high-major scorer among the bunch. The way the rules are now, you better start looking for scorers instead of just athletic defenders because the game has changed. Its much easier to teach defense to a shooter than it is to teach shooting to a defender.
If my view is seeing things through a negative lens, then I'd have to say your scenarios are the best-case. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Look I'm pulling for Ray and want to see him succeed. I think he really would if he had the players. However there are many people who have been heavily invested in basketball in the past who share my concerns. There's a lot of "wait and see" -ing going on.