Here is why State will be the Darkhorse pick to win it all in 2018...

With the coaching change and the recent recruiting panic attacks, it is easy to forgot what we have returning next year on both sides of the ball. While we may not get the credit we deserve due to the coaching change, there is no doubt that we will have a top 10 team on paper next year. Here is a look at the production we have returning on both sides of the ball:

OFFENSE:
-Returning 107 of 132 (81%) starts from 2017.
-Returning 2998 of 3005 (99.8%) rushing yards from 2017
-Returning 566 of 568 (99.6%) rushing attempts from 2017
-Returning 26 of 26 (100%) rushing touchdowns from 2017
-Returning 1512 of 2043 (74%) receiving yards from 2017
-Returning 127 of 180 (71%) receptions from 2017
-Returning 693 of 748 (92.6%) offensive touches from 2017
-Returning 4511 of 5048 (89.4%) total offensive yards from 2017.
-Returning 35 of 43 (81.4%) offensive touchdowns from 2017
-Returning every member of the backfield.
-Returning 4 of 5 starting offensive linemen, as well as a Left tackle who started 4 games this year.


DEFENSE:
-Returning 98 of 132 (74.2%) starts from 2017.
-Returning 631 of 783 (81%) tackles from 2017
-Returning 67.5 of 74 (91.2%) TFL from 2017.
-Returning 27 of 30 (90%) sacks from 2017.
-Returning 7 of 9 (78%) interceptions from 2017.
-Returning 12 of 14 (86%) forced fumbles from 2017.
-Returning 8 of 8 (100%) fumble recoveries from 2017.
-Returning all but one contributor from the front 7.


Essentially, we lose 8 contributors/starters. 4 on the offensive side (Rankin, Donald Gray, Gabe Myles, and Jordan Thomas) and 4 on the defensive side (JT Gray, Dez Harris, Tolando Cleveland, and Lashard Durr). In the last four games of the season, these 8 guys combined for only 16 of a possible 32 starts. All eight of these guys sat or were injured at some point of the season, and a returning player filled their spot without a noticeable downgrade.

I can say somewhat confidently that the 2017 team (with a fully committed coach) would have gone 8-4, 7-5 at worst without the 8 guys that are graduating. When you consider this, and then throw in Chauncey Rivers, Lee Autry, Brian Cole, J. Landrews and others on the defensive side, and Malik Heath, Stephen Guidry, Whop, Malik Dear, Austin Williams, Tyree Phillips and Tommy Champion among others on the offensive side, we may just have the best combination of talent and experience in Maroon and White ever.

Put all of this on paper, except put LSU's name on top, and you are looking at a preseason top 5-10 team.

Our Dline could be the best in the country next year. Simmons and Sweat have a chance to be 1st round picks and that doesn't even factor in getting Rivers. If we don't have a great defense I will be surprised. It would take some Sirmon level coaching to make those guys finish middle of the SEC next year.

Then our offense basically loses a LT who played a hand full of games and a TE who was underutilized anyway. We return a lot of experience at every position and our WRs are a year older and we are bringing in possibly the best talent we have ever had at the position with Guidry, Heath, and Whop. Any one of those 3 would be the best WR that Mullen had signed in 9 years.

Great post. I?ll also add another reason 2018 could be special. Our schedule rolls off a road game at Georgia for a home game against Merlin?s gators. Should add one W to season.

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Originally Posted by RougeDawg

Great post. I?ll also add another reason 2018 could be special. Our schedule rolls off a road game at Georgia for a home game against Merlin?s gators. Should add one W to season.

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The schedule sets up for a 10-2 type year on paper anyway. I also like that Coach JoeMo has won big games at Fordham. He has won championships everywhere he has been. Fordham beating Army when he was there is probably equal to us and Bama.

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Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

The schedule sets up for a 10-2 type year on paper anyway. I also like that Coach JoeMo has won big games at Fordham. He has won championships everywhere he has been. Fordham beating Army when he was there is probably equal to us and Bama.

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10-2 would be an ok season. I expect us to win every game at home and all road games except Bama. Until we do that I personally cannot say with confidence we should expect to do it. We should win at BR next year. At KState will be interesting but our defense should not allow that one to skip away.

Can Fitz throw the deep ball consistently and go top down on his reads? If he can do those two things consistently, we could be very, very good.

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Originally Posted by Political Hack

Can Fitz throw the deep ball consistently and go top down on his reads? If he can do those two things consistently, we could be very, very good.

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Hopefully Guidry, Whop, and an improved Todd will help take the top of the defense. We will finally have some balance in our receiving group with outside and slot guys.

I don't know that we have ever had the amount of returning, experienced talent that we will have in 2018. Maybe '99 or '00?

I know that people are concerned about the staff change, however we have some things going for us there:
1) Our defense is used to the change. It's happened every year.
2) The leadership mentality the team developed this past year. These guys are tight, and are on a mission. I think Dan bolting, and the way it went down, will be a huge motivating force. These guys have a big chip on their shoulder.
3) A HC who is known for adapting - Moorhead takes talent and figures out how to use it and doesn't just force players into a system. I love that.
4) Schedule - our schedule is favorable for a run next year. Lots of teams with new coaches. Three OOC games and at Kentucky to work out the kinks and start 4-0. UF and AU at home makes both winnable. 5-1 or 6-0 going into Baton Rouge with momentum - a place and team we have played well the past 4 years, making this a winnable road game. Texas A&M at home is winnable - and we seem to have gotten the milkman monkey off our backs. Follow that up with LaTech, and we are 8-0 or 7-1 headed to Tuscaloosa. Can we get the Red Elephant off our back? If so, there is no stopping us and we roll into an SEC title match against UGA

and finally

5) Fitz in Grad School. Once he finishes rehab, Fitz being in grad school will free him up for a Master's in QB. More time for reps, film study, etc. etc. Dak made his biggest strides after he graduated. I think Fitz can do the same.

Is Sweat coming back? I read an interview with him a few days ago and he was asked twice if he had thought about the draft. Both times he said "I haven't thought about it, I've been focusing on the bowl game".

To me that says he's considering the draft, and doesn't want to lock himself into coming back. Anyone know where he's projected as going? NFL is dumb if they don't take him first 3 rounds, but I'm not sure he comes back if they will

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Originally Posted by BrunswickDawg

I don't know that we have ever had the amount of returning, experienced talent that we will have in 2018. Maybe '99 or '00?

I know that people are concerned about the staff change, however we have some things going for us there:
1) Our defense is used to the change. It's happened every year.
2) The leadership mentality the team developed this past year. These guys are tight, and are on a mission. I think Dan bolting, and the way it went down, will be a huge motivating force. These guys have a big chip on their shoulder.
3) A HC who is known for adapting - Moorhead takes talent and figures out how to use it and doesn't just force players into a system. I love that.
4) Schedule - our schedule is favorable for a run next year. Lots of teams with new coaches. Three OOC games and at Kentucky to work out the kinks and start 4-0. UF and AU at home makes both winnable. 5-1 or 6-0 going into Baton Rouge with momentum - a place and team we have played well the past 4 years, making this a winnable road game. Texas A&M at home is winnable - and we seem to have gotten the milkman monkey off our backs. Follow that up with LaTech, and we are 8-0 or 7-1 headed to Tuscaloosa. Can we get the Red Elephant off our back? If so, there is no stopping us and we roll into an SEC title match against UGA

and finally

5) Fitz in Grad School. Once he finishes rehab, Fitz being in grad school will free him up for a Master's in QB. More time for reps, film study, etc. etc. Dak made his biggest strides after he graduated. I think Fitz can do the same.

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If our team isn't pumped up to play UF then I don't know what could. AU will be tough if Stidham comes back but a lot of NFL draft boards are thinking he might be gone. There aren't a lot of good QBs in the draft this year. LSU will be tough in BR but do they actually get a QB worth a crap with Guice leaving? Everyone has more question marks than we do next year.

We basically have to replace one corner and Dez Harris on defense. On offense, Eiland already played over half the season and Thomas at TE was rotated with Green anyway. Gray and Myles were complete non factors for the whole year. As far as losing actual production, oddly enough we need someone to step up for Cleveland but he was probably an average SEC corner.

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Originally Posted by the_real_MSU_is_us

Is Sweat coming back? I read an interview with him a few days ago and he was asked twice if he had thought about the draft. Both times he said "I haven't thought about it, I've been focusing on the bowl game".

To me that says he's considering the draft, and doesn't want to lock himself into coming back. Anyone know where he's projected as going? NFL is dumb if they don't take him first 3 rounds, but I'm not sure he comes back if they will

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Depends on if he wants to go 3rd round or 1st round. Another year at his level of production more than likely gets him into the 1st round whereas coming out this year he would be lucky to get into the 3rd unless he runs a 4.4. Shoop put Barnett in the first round with very similar size and style. I think it might be a recruiting job for Shoop as much as anything. He should get his draft grade from the NFL since he is a junior so that will know where he stands.

great post DD

We have tons of talent returning and QUALITY depth. Question marks at WR and CB- but every team has questions. Should be a fun ride

I can't help but think about Louisville from 2006 to 2007. Very similar situation. Petrino to Kragthorpe = disaster. I am hoping we have more talent than they did (people tend to overlook that and just focus on QB, and they had Brian Brohm at the time), and that Petrino was a better coach than Mullen, which I still believe. And hoping that Moorhead is better than Kragthorpe.

Here's to the next Chip Kelly

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Originally Posted by Coach34

great post DD

We have tons of talent returning and QUALITY depth. Question marks at WR and CB- but every team has questions. Should be a fun ride

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How many of those Question marks get answered by signing Guidry, Heath, and Whop? Mixon, Thomas, Todd, Mitchell, and Couch returning is probably on the lower end of the SEC average but throwing in the recruits might push this to at least middle of the pack in the SEC. With what we have returning everywhere else on offense, if the team picks up JoeMo's offense then we could be one of the best in the SEC.

CB - hopefully Peters or Dantzler keep improving because both have talent. Is there anyone else that might make an impact besides Brian Cole?

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Originally Posted by Tbonewannabe

How many of those Question marks get answered by signing Guidry, Heath, and Whop? Mixon, Thomas, Todd, Mitchell, and Couch returning is probably on the lower end of the SEC average but throwing in the recruits might push this to at least middle of the pack in the SEC. With what we have returning everywhere else on offense, if the team picks up JoeMo's offense then we could be one of the best in the SEC.

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Don't forget about Jessie Jackson, if he can improve his hands over the offseason I believe he could have a big year. He will be in the 2 deep and probably a starter. Jackson actually ended up leading the team in receptions this year at 24 (tied with Donald Gray). Also, don't forget my boy Malik Dear, he will be more than healthy and ready to break out. Having a healthy Mixon and Dear will go a long way in opening up the verts for the bigger guys. Guidry, Heath and Whop will help, no doubt, but I don't think we can expect them to come in and be all-SEC type guys. You got Jackson, Dear, Mixon, Thomas, Todd, Mitchell, Couch, Whop, Heath, Guidry and Austin Williams (6'3" white dude from OS who redshirted this year). Thats a WR corp with a lot of size and raw talent, something we are not used to. The passing game will be much improved next year. Not to mention we will have like 34 tight ends on the roster next year, Mooreheads TE1 had 500+ receiving yards last year, so expect them to be a big part of the passing game.

The only position I can say that I am genuinely worried about is CB. Brian Cole definitely needs to make a Abram type impact for us to feel comfortable. You have Peters, Rayford and Dantzler who all have good experience. Need two from that group to take the next step. Then you hope for some quality depth from Landrews and Tyler Williams. The wild card here is snagging a Post-Grad transfer that can comfortably step into a 2 deep role. If we can get that, I think the sky is the limit. Also, an elite front 7 can make a weak secondary look average, as we saw this year.

Best thread of the year. IMHO!

Can we go to Tuscaloosa at 9-0 and win. The players and ISID believe we can.