Long. Sorry. Been thinking about this for a while. I've said before that this is the ultimate high stakes poker game between UNM and the NCAA.
Assumption: The NCAA wasn't previously aware of the Tunsil/John Miller texts (not in NOA).
We know Tunsil's loaner cars and interest free loan is n the NOA. UNM admitted that and I believe them. This is the "nothing new" spin form Jan/Feb talking points. When the NCAA investigated and interviewed Tunsil, you know they asked him if he received any other non-permissible benefits. Still being a student-athlete, he would have said no. The step-father may not have spilled the beans at the time. If his intentions were to sue, he needed Tunsil to play a few games to keep the draft stock high.
UNM files for the extension. This helped them, but could be the nail in the coffin. Now, in their response, if the NOA includes anything about the Tunsil family living situation or impermissible benefits, the texts have to be addressed and admitted to or somehow explained away. They have to be wondering what other texts the hacker may have access to that could be worse than what has already been put out. So the ultimate question for them is do they admit and own up to paying him and his mom's utility bills OR roll the dice and hope nothing else comes out. If something else does come out that wasn't disclosed in their reply, the NCAA will hit their whole staff with show causes. Step dad is very likely a willing cooperator now (unless he has been "re-bought"). But failure to cooperate is admission of guilt.
If the NOA doesn't address this, they have to self report it and it brings a 2nd investigation onto campus (or 3rd, if you want to call it that). Again, this is high stakes poker. Admit to it and you have coaches/AD Dept PAYING or organizing payments to a player!!!! Deny it and if it gets proven with the hacker turning over the phone or through some other method, the NCAA will be looking to shut down your program.
Now you can change that assumption made in the beginning that the NCAA knew about the texts and they were in the NOA (highly unlikely because the coaches would have already been fired). UNM is still in the same boat, the Titanic. And they're bailing water with tablespoons.
This point has likely been made before, but is worth repeating. The UNM Administration probably can't decide who it wants to piss off. The football fans or the NCAA. Do they clean house and try to at least put on a show for the NCAA that they are not gong to have a shady program? Or double down on Freeze/Bdork even though it may backfire.
This is like a soap opera. For you Bear lurkers, my bet is 9 over 3. You will get to sign 9 over 3 years if your lucky. Not the other way around.